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March 12, 2004

OCTOBER SURPRISE?....This is pretty remarkable. Channel 4 in Pittsburgh is running an AP dispatch suggesting that Tom Ridge "didn't answer the question directly" when asked if Osama bin Laden was already hemmed in and ready to be captured, and next to it they're running one of those ever popular reader poll.

Now, I'm assuming this poll hasn't been deliberately targeted by a blog or talk show host trying to sandbag the results, but instead is an honest reflection of the opinion of Channel 4's viewers. And 56% of them think that either Osama has already been captured or that the Bush administration will deliberately time his capture for close to the election.

This is ridiculous. I can't stand the guy, but even I don't think that. Let's get a grip folks.

I mean, they'll obviously do this right before the Republican convention, right? Great visuals, gives them something newsworthy to talk about, reminds everyone of 9/11 without seeming crass about it. It's perfect.

But right before the election? Nah. That's wingnut territory.

Posted by Kevin Drum at March 12, 2004 06:19 PM | TrackBack


Comments

On the off chance that anyone doesn't get it....

I'm kidding, folks.

Posted by: Kevin Drum at March 12, 2004 06:19 PM | PERMALINK

Shows you have paranoid the Bushies have made people and how people don't trust them or their motives.

Posted by: The Media at March 12, 2004 06:23 PM | PERMALINK

Welcome to the United States of Wingnuttery.

Posted by: gak at March 12, 2004 06:23 PM | PERMALINK

Hell, I wouldn't put anything past these people. But hey, what does a homo like me know? I'm barely a citizen anyway ...

Posted by: Terrance at March 12, 2004 06:26 PM | PERMALINK

This man has such little crediblity that a large portion of this population will think of an OBL caputre and an election year stunt.

Thank you dick and JUNIOR...

Posted by: me at March 12, 2004 06:28 PM | PERMALINK

I suspect that the phrasing of the poll affected the results here.. aspects of it are confusing.

Posted by: Dutch at March 12, 2004 06:30 PM | PERMALINK

None of the options were: Osama may be caught and it may help Bush but it won't be a stunt. In Pittsburgh?

Posted by: Elrod at March 12, 2004 06:31 PM | PERMALINK

A pool is in order...if Bushco's poll numbers don't pick up I predict Osoma by Easter. 4/11

Posted by: ann at March 12, 2004 06:36 PM | PERMALINK

This was posted this p.m. on the American Prospect blog:

"GOOD ADVICE. Mickey Kaus has a piece of pretty sound advice to the Kerry campaign he so loathes:

"Unspeakable political angle: The immediate impact of a series of preelection bombings would be to help Bush, no--just as yesterday's bombings are expected to help the conservatives in the impending Spanish election? If you were running John Kerry's campaign, wouldn't you be thinking about how you were going to counter that phenomenon? Actually, wouldn't you begin countering that phenomenon well before anything happens--say, in the next few week--by pre-defining another act of terrorism in the U.S. as somehow a Bush failure..."

Posted by: bean at March 12, 2004 06:44 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin, just out of curiosity, what are you going to do if they do come up with OBL in the lead up to the convention?
Not that I disagree with you, but I'm pretty much jaded by the audacity of BushCo™.

Posted by: Rook at March 12, 2004 06:45 PM | PERMALINK

They pull OBL out of a hat 3 days before the election. Then when Bush wins even though the pre-election polls showed him losing badly they can see "but everyone realized how badly we needed to keep Bush" That way we don't get to question the veracity of the Diebold machines.

I wish that I was not even able to think that such things were possible.

Posted by: ___league at March 12, 2004 06:47 PM | PERMALINK

I vote for three days before the Republican convention opens.

Posted by: eyelessgame at March 12, 2004 06:50 PM | PERMALINK

Posted by Elrod: "None of the options were: Osama may be caught and it may help Bush but it won't be a stunt."

Huh? I do not see an appreciable difference between the option you contend is missing and actual option #3, which states, "No, I don't know when he'll be caught, but it has nothing to do with the elections."

Whatever the circumstances of his capture, if it occurs or has occurred, the presentation of it to the public will most definitely be a stunt. Saddam's statue really was toppled, Bush really did land on the aircraft carrier, he really did serve turkey (albeit, plastic) in Iraq on Thanksgiving, Saddam really was captured -- but they were ALL stunts! Likewise, Bush's MBA, his military service, his corporate career, his governorship, and his presidency have ALL also been stunts. His entire life is a stunt.

Posted by Kevin Drum: I'm kidding, folks."

Would that this were a joke.

Posted by: jayarbee at March 12, 2004 06:51 PM | PERMALINK

league, stop it. You're scaring me. I've already thought that Kerry needs a lead in sufficient states bigger than the poll sampling error. I remember how viciously Voter News Service was attacked in Florida for accurately reporting how people thought they had just voted.

Posted by: dryListener at March 12, 2004 06:53 PM | PERMALINK

drylistener

I think that there are still a number of states that use old style machines or punchcards. There is no way that those can be hijacked on a large scale. This could mean that we end up with a scenario in which Bush suddenly gains in electronic voting machine states only but does this in enough states to will the electoral college. Then what do we do? Rational people will clearly see that the election has been stolen but the Bushites will simply act like they did in Florida in 2000.

Posted by: ____league at March 12, 2004 06:58 PM | PERMALINK

Osama captured TOMORROW won't be soon enough for me to change my mind that Iraq was a pointless waste of time.

Had we sent 100,000 troops to Afghanistan AND Pakistan, instead of Iraq - Osama would have likely been pulled from his spider hole two years ago, and 3/11 might not have happend.

Saying that no attacks on American Soil since 9/11 is proof of Bush's success ignores the attacks that have occurred on ALLIES' soil. Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Turkey, and Iraq - which is technically American Soil until June 30-ish.

It also ignores the Anthrax, the Sniper(s), the Ricin, and Lord knows what they've covered up. Remember - Al Qaeda claimed responsibility for the NE Blackout (remember that?). And the Oil Terminal Explosion in New York.
. . . and personally, I consider Enron/MCI a acts of domestic economic terrorism.
. . . and also, ClearChannel, and FMA are acts of domestic cultural terrorism.
. . . and the Patriot Act, of course is also, an act of terrorism against the Founding Fathers, and the principles upon which they founded this great nation.
Yes, we are ever at WAR against tyranny. And the Patriot Act is an example of such tyranny.

Posted by: Occam's Cuisinart at March 12, 2004 06:58 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin

I appreciate what your saying.But to call the theory "wingnuttery" is apalling!"wingnuttery is reserved only to the right wing dumbasses who dont have a clue.Your theory would be best called "tinfoil hattery"!

Posted by: smalfish at March 12, 2004 06:59 PM | PERMALINK

Hmm, sorry, thought this was CalPundit not Freep. And why are all you crazy ass paranoid Freepers spinning loony Klintoon theories, but using George HW Bush's name? What'd Bush ever do to you? And who is Rumsfeld? Doesn't he run a car company or something? Or is that a drink with gold flecks in it? Ohh, I've been asleep for so long. Yawn. This is 1998, right?

It's always sad to watch somebody descend into madness. Moreoso when it's a whole political party and its adherents.

Posted by: Al Maviva at March 12, 2004 07:00 PM | PERMALINK

Attention everyone...NBC nightly news has discovered that Dick Nixon calls John Kerry a 'PHONY' in one section of the WATERGATE TAPES. EXCLUSIVE STORY MONDAY.

Posted by: troi at March 12, 2004 07:01 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin,

No internet poll is to be taken at face value because the sample is self-selecting and there is no way to know whether or not it is representative.

The one you displayed so prominiently may be accurate. Then again it may not. Notice there is no MOE associated with it, and for good reason.

Posted by: Michael at March 12, 2004 07:02 PM | PERMALINK

It's always sad to watch somebody descend into madness. Moreoso when it's a whole political party and its adherents.

And which political party is that?

Posted by: ___league at March 12, 2004 07:03 PM | PERMALINK

Aside from the capture/death of Bin Laden (real or staged), the other exogenous campaign-turning event to look for is the death of Ronald Reagan.

If he passes away before November, we will see the hagiography running rampant. Cable media will trumpet his "wisdom" and "goodness", and pretty soon supply-side tax cuts, the Laffer Curve, and Star Wars all sound profound.

This is not, of course, not to suggest that Bush, Rove et al would bump off the Alzheimer's addled Gipper. Good thing Lee Atwater isn't in the picture...

Posted by: Jon at March 12, 2004 07:04 PM | PERMALINK

The problem, as I think we've known and the nation is starting to recognize, is that the Bush administration true believers ARE wingnuts.

Posted by: BayMike at March 12, 2004 07:05 PM | PERMALINK

This is not, of course, not to suggest that Bush, Rove et al would bump off the Alzheimer's addled Gipper. Good thing Lee Atwater isn't in the picture...

I personally consider Rove worse than Atwater.

Posted by: ___league at March 12, 2004 07:06 PM | PERMALINK

Oh, is there a pool? I pick 6 days before the convention...

Posted by: BayMike at March 12, 2004 07:08 PM | PERMALINK

I agree that Rove is worse than Atwater. That's why he's #3 on the "Avenging Angel's Top 10 Unpunished Transgressors' List" over at Perrspectives.com.

http://www.perrspectives.com/features/angel.htm

Posted by: Jon at March 12, 2004 07:09 PM | PERMALINK

Hmmmm, all this hammering on the Bushies seems to be reaching a crescendo....

.... So look for the threat level to suddenly be raised to Orange within the next week or so, after a few days of "administration officials" talking about "increased chatter."

Posted by: MirandaHobbes at March 12, 2004 07:09 PM | PERMALINK

Wingnuttery

Sounds like a village in the English countryside.

League's suggestion has the stink of Machiavellian cleverness that clings to most of Chimpy's boys' plots. Scary is right.

I'd say right before the election

Posted by: noodge at March 12, 2004 07:10 PM | PERMALINK

Bean spoke of an "Unspeakable political angle"

There are any number of people out there who wonder if they would let an attack go ahead if they knew about it.

Really, what's the downside? There is none, and it's kind of frightening in a "My Daddy and James Baker and the bin Ladens are Carlyle associates" kinda way.

Oh, crap. I just dropped my tinfoil hat...but check that link anyway, wherein Safire predicts a terror attack as the October Surprise.

Posted by: Mad As A TinFoilHatter at March 12, 2004 07:11 PM | PERMALINK

Folks, not only will Osama be trotted out in time for the Repub. convention, but shortly afterward it will also be announced that Grandpa Ronnie has finally joined his maker and the faithful will be energized to give Junior a resounding victory in every state with electronic voting machines, earning enough lectoral votes to retain his temporary abode. An autopsy would have shown (if it had been authorized) that the former Pres. seemed to have been marinated in formaldehyde for what appeared to be about 3 years. Since his demise in late 2001 was "untimely" given the severe crisis (and huge support Shrub was enjoying) after 9/11, the announcement of Mr. Reagan's passing was deferred until a more favorable moment - in October 2004, just in case BushCo. is in trouble at about that time. You heard it here first.

Posted by: DFB14 at March 12, 2004 07:12 PM | PERMALINK

"Oh, crap. I just dropped my tinfoil hat..."


UH OH!

Here ya go.... dont want to lose this thing,It's going to come in handy very soon.

Posted by: smalfish at March 12, 2004 07:14 PM | PERMALINK

They've already captured Osama.They have him
cutting brush at Chimp's ranch until they produce
him.

Posted by: Dull-in here at March 12, 2004 07:25 PM | PERMALINK

How about a Kerry preemptive strike?

Reporter: Sen. Kerry, what do you think about these polls that show a large portion of the residents of Pittsburgh think that the president would manipulate the capture of Osama bin Laden to impact the outcome of the election?

Sen. Kerry: I think it's tragic that the American people have become so cynical about the current administration. Whatever political differences we might have I believe George Bush was just as horrified by the murder of 3000 innocent people as we all were. Besides, what would be the point of such a stunt? Capturing Sadaam didn't seem to do him any good politically, and sure didn't take any heat off our troops in Iraq, now did it?

Take the point away before Bushco can even make it. Leave HIM scrambling with a "Why, I never said...I never even thought!....of such a thing as he's accusing me of" whereafter it is pointed out that there WAS no accusation, at which point he returns to babbling about "optimism."

Posted by: Xan at March 12, 2004 07:27 PM | PERMALINK

know thy enemy

Posted by: Texan at March 12, 2004 07:48 PM | PERMALINK

There are any number of people out there who wonder if they would let an attack go ahead if they knew about it.

They already did.

Posted by: postit at March 12, 2004 07:49 PM | PERMALINK

-Xan, Excellant suggestion!

Posted by: St Paul E Wog at March 12, 2004 07:50 PM | PERMALINK

if they pull him out now, it could be worth pointing out that there are 200 dead people in Spain who might have been saved had Bush not waited so long. (assuming AQ was behind 3/11, of course)

Posted by: cleek at March 12, 2004 08:04 PM | PERMALINK

Jayarbee,
You're missing my point. I would see it as a stunt. You would see it as a stunt. Lots and lots - perhaps even a majority of Americans - would see it as a stunt. But some might not. When I interpret the option #3 "it has nothing to do with elections", I don't mean the actual framing of the event but the response to it. In other words, are there people out there who don't think Bush is planning an election event Osama capture, but whose vote for Bush would be swayed in his favor by Osama's capture? Presumably they would answer option #3. I thought option #3 meant people would not change their vote on the basis of Osama's capture. Anyway, the wording of option #3 is confusing.

Posted by: Elrod at March 12, 2004 08:08 PM | PERMALINK

Forgot to use the faithful tags, I see. Tsk-tsk.

Posted by: fightingdem at March 12, 2004 08:16 PM | PERMALINK

Hee-hee. I see the sarcasm html tags were stripped out of the post. Very interesting.

Posted by: fightingdem at March 12, 2004 08:18 PM | PERMALINK

I always thought they'd pull out some poor 6 foot 5 dead bastard who they claimed was OBL. If the real OBL (let's suppose his dialysis machine is still working) objected they would claim he was a pretender. Why go to all the work to get the real one, if all you need is one a week before the election?

Posted by: paranoid at March 12, 2004 08:18 PM | PERMALINK

Seymour Hersh had an article in The New Yorker last week, "The Deal"
http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?040308fa_fact
which asserts that the Bushies cut a deal with Musharref to let A.Q. Khan be "pardoned" by the Pakistanis for "his" operation of a nuclear weapons blackmarket. In return for this, the Pakistanis will allow U.S. troops into the tribal territories so they can capture OBL. The most interesting aspect of this is that it does imply that they don't actually have him yet. This leaves aside, of course, the fact that A.Q. Khan has done more to put the U.S. in the crosshairs of a nuclear weapon than OBL could ever hope to do. This has all been denied by the Pakistanis, naturally, but it does have that same jaw-dropping bad judgment that typifies Bush foreign policy. It also suggests that they are so desperate to capture OBL that they would deal away an opportunity to find out important intelligence about nuclear threats in exchange for a quick shot of political good news.

Posted by: quid pro quo at March 12, 2004 08:23 PM | PERMALINK

Will NO ONE simply ask a YES OR NO question...Is Bini in custody YES OR NO?

Of course the lying liars will say (once he is hauled out) well, you said custody. He was not in custody, just safekeeping.

It's obvious as obvious is.

Posted by: Jack at March 12, 2004 08:26 PM | PERMALINK

One of the things I resent most about Bushco is that you can't have a good paranoid fantasy anymore. Every time you create some sort of absurd conspiracy theory it turns out to be true.

They are destroying satire in this country.

Posted by: Bryan at March 12, 2004 08:29 PM | PERMALINK

"It also suggests that they are so desperate to capture OBL that they would deal away an opportunity to find out important intelligence about nuclear threats in exchange for a quick shot of political good news."


The ol BUsh giveaway program.YES you too can become RICH at the prodding of the U.S. government.YES your friends at the state department will give your country an all expense paid Island in the carribean,for the low low price of one Osama Bin Laden.All requests must be submitted in triplicate and sent to www.Karlmarxrove@Bushsux.com

Posted by: smalfish at March 12, 2004 08:44 PM | PERMALINK
This is ridiculous. I can't stand the guy, but even I don't think that. Let's get a grip folks.

Then perhaps you should conclude that the poll is not a fair representation of the general publics feelings.

Ya think?

Posted by: Steve at March 12, 2004 09:40 PM | PERMALINK

:D

Love it.

Posted by: perpwalk at March 12, 2004 10:12 PM | PERMALINK

the Bushies cut a deal with Musharref . . . In return for this, the Pakistanis will allow U.S. troops into the tribal territories so they can capture OBL. The most interesting aspect of this is that it does imply that they don't actually have him yet.

On the other hand, this is just the kind of stunt they would pull to make people think that they haven't got Osama yet.

Posted by: rachelrachel at March 12, 2004 10:19 PM | PERMALINK


Pakistan will NOT give bin Laden up.
It would mean death for Musharraf.

Posted by: epistemology at March 12, 2004 10:26 PM | PERMALINK

About Rumsfeld and others taking relics from the WTC site.
I've got some of that too -- in my lungs! Assholes.

Posted by: Jesus Buttafuoco at March 12, 2004 10:36 PM | PERMALINK

I've posted this elsewhere, and this is my bet:
Right around Halloween, if the election is close. If Bush is ahead comfortably, they'll probably save OBL for the inauguration. Kind of like the huge coincidence of the hostages leaving Iran just as the inauguration celebrations for Reagan were getting under way.
You guys do remember that, don't you? Given that, what makes you all think they wouldn't do something like this?

Posted by: Paul A at March 12, 2004 10:49 PM | PERMALINK

yeah and my answer will be so what if BL is captured? what is that going to change?
did capturing Hussein do anything? no, resistance to our occupation continued
but then, people here are sooo dumb that they thought it would be the end of resistance and busholini actually got a bump in the polls.

Posted by: takema at March 12, 2004 11:07 PM | PERMALINK

"Pakistan will NOT give bin Laden up.
It would mean death for Musharraf.
Posted by epistemology at March 12, 2004 10:26 PM | PERMALIN"

Haha.

What makes you think he'll be 'found' in Pakistan?

Posted by: perpwalk at March 12, 2004 11:19 PM | PERMALINK

the problem with the poll is that it doesn't have enough choices.

my personal feelings are not represented.

there should be an an option that says, "i don't know when or if he'll be caught, but the bushies aren't above manipulating his capture to their political advantage." that option would trounce the other ones we see in this poorly written poll.

Posted by: n. cognito at March 12, 2004 11:45 PM | PERMALINK

Wow, you guys really are crazed conspiracy theorists aren't you. But here's the real October surprise:

John Kerry is planning to re-enact his herioc actions of the late 1960s in an October Surprise.
We have learned that the Heinz-Kerry axis has spared no expense to pull of the theatatrical tour de' force re-living his glory days.


Kerry plans to hire top notch actors to play his fellow soldiers in Vietnam who he will publicly berate as war criminals, baby killers and committers of genocide. He will even 'stab his fellow soldiers in the back' as he admitted to doing during Vietnam. Then as the play ends Kerry in full North Vietbnames uniform
finishes with a public flogging of a American soldier for the crimes they committed against the poor people of south east asia.

Then Kerry and Jane Fonda will attack John McCain and other POWs as being liars who claimed to have been tortured by the loving North Vietcong.

The finale' is Kerrys quitting his beloved VVAW when they vote on assasinating congressmen and American leaders who support the war.

Tim Russert claims..there won't be a dry eye in the house.

Posted by: keiser at March 13, 2004 01:48 AM | PERMALINK

If you want tinfoil, it won't be a capture, that's only for once and ends the focus on terror - Churchill got thrown out when the war ended, etc.

We have a big orange alert threat to our sacred American freedom to vote - uniformed soldiers protecting the polling places while we all line up to do the brave thing and vote to protect freedom.

Posted by: snoey at March 13, 2004 04:49 AM | PERMALINK

Here's a terrific column by Charles Krauthammer.

WASHINGTON -- Look. I know it is shooting French in a barrel. But when yet another insufferable penseur -- first Chirac, then de Villepin, now the editor of Le Monde -- starts lecturing Americans on how they ought to conduct themselves in the world, the rules of decorum are suspended.

In an article in The Wall Street Journal, Jean-Marie Colombani, who wrote the famous Sept. 12, 2001, Le Monde editorial titled ``We are all Americans,'' gives us the usual more-in-sorrow-than-in-anger lament about America's sins: We loved you on Sept. 11. We were all with you in Afghanistan. But, oh, what have you done in Iraq?

This requires some parsing. We loved you on Sept. 11 means: We like Americans when they are victims, on their knees and bleeding. We just don't like it when they get off the floor -- without checking with us first.

Colombani glories in Europe's post-Sept. 11 ``solidarity'' with America: ``Let us remember here the involvement of French and German soldiers, among other European nationalities, in the operations launched in Afghanistan to ... free the Afghans.''

Come again? The French arrived in Mazar-e Sharif after it fell -- or as military analyst Jay Leno put it, ``to serve as advisers to the Taliban on how to surrender properly.'' Afghanistan was liberated by America acting practically unilaterally, with an even smaller coalition than that in Iraq -- Britain and Australia, with the rest of the world holding America's coat.

But then came Iraq. ``The problem was not so much the war itself, but the fact that it was launched without U.N. approval,'' Colombani explains.

Rubbish. The Kosovo war was launched without U.N. approval and France joined it. Only two wars have ever been launched with U.N. approval: the Korean War (an accident of the Soviets having walked out of the Security Council on another matter) and Gulf War I.

It is touching to hear such legalistic objections to deposing a man who has killed more Muslims than any person on earth -- particularly when the objection is offered from a pose of superior international morality from a country whose commandos once blew up a Greenpeace ship monitoring French nuclear tests in the South Pacific.

Moreover, Colombani complains, George Bush ``lied about the weapons of mass

destruction -- the official pretext for the war -- as now publicly established by recent investigations.'' More rubbish. The investigations have established that the weapons have not been found and may not exist. The claim that the president knew so at the time, and lied about it as a ``pretext'' for war, is a malicious falsehood.

There is more. Colombani grieves that the Bush administration has taken an ``ax'' to the two great pillars of Western success post-World War II: containment and free trade.

Colombani decries the fact that containment has given way to pre-emptive war. But containment was designed for the Soviet Union, which died 10 years before Bush even took office. Only a fool would advocate containment against the new threat that has arisen in its place: terrorists and terrorist states acquiring weapons of mass destruction.

When dealing with undeterrables (like al Qaeda) or undetectables (like an Iraq or an Iran passing WMDs to terrorists) there is no such thing as containment. There is no deterrence, no address for the retaliation. There are two options -- do nothing and wait for the next attack, or get them before they acquire the capacity to get you. That is called pre-emption.

Warming to the ``ax'' theme, Colombani then decries the Bush administration's ``return of protectionism.'' This (plus pre-emption), ``is why John Kerry is, a priori, perceived with so much sympathy'' in Europe.

Good grief. Only an ignoramus oblivious to what is happening in American politics could prefer Kerry over Bush on grounds of free trade. Has no one told Colombani that the Democrats have made protectionism -- attacking everything from NAFTA to the WTO -- a theme of this campaign, radically reversing the Clinton policies of the 1990s?

It is not John Kerry's fault that he is endorsed by a Frenchman. (Or by Kim Jong Il of North Korea, whose media have been running some of Kerry's speeches verbatim!) But Kerry has made the major -- indeed, only discernible -- theme of his foreign policy ``rejoining the community of nations'' and being liked abroad once again.

Which is why he does not just court foreign support, he boasts about it. ``I've met foreign leaders, who can't go out and say this publicly,'' he told a Hollywood, Fla., fund-raiser, ``but boy they look at you and say, `You gotta win this one, you gotta beat this guy.'''

For the world. For France.

Posted by: Norman Rogers at March 13, 2004 05:20 AM | PERMALINK

yeah and my answer will be so what if BL is captured? what is that going to change?
did capturing Hussein do anything? no, resistance to our occupation continued
but then, people here are sooo dumb that they thought it would be the end of resistance and busholini actually got a bump in the polls.

The difference is that bin Laden actually committed a crime against the American people, as opposed to just being a really bad guy.

Kerry and the Dems should seize the initiative on this one:

- Ask why the White House pulled troops OUT of Afghanistan, and off the bin Laden manhunt, to pursue their agenda in Iraq.

- Ask why capturing someone who the White House can't even prove was a direct threat to us was a bigger priority than capturing someone who had already attacked us.

- Ask how the White House had so bungled the bin Laden manhunt that they had to allow Khan -- someone who's actions posed more of a direct threat to America than Saddam's -- to walk just to try and make some progress in bringing bin Laden to justice.

The thing is, I think the Kerry campaign could pull it off. Maybe Kerry can make an off-the-cuff remark about "this administration's politically-motivated negligence in the pursuit of justice" to get the ball rolling...

Posted by: Erik at March 13, 2004 05:57 AM | PERMALINK

Thanks Norman Rogers for confirming that conservatroids like you are incapable of thinking for themselves.

At least Keiser swallows first and then vomits that crap back up in his own words.

Whenever you have an orginal thought, please share it. We won't hold our breath, though.

Posted by: doesn't matter at March 13, 2004 06:03 AM | PERMALINK

Madrid just emphasizes the importance of terrorism as enemy #1, not Iraq. The two-year timeout taken in the hunt for the Al Qaeda leadership to fart around taking care of family business looks expecially criminal now.

Posted by: BobNJ at March 13, 2004 06:38 AM | PERMALINK

Thanks Norman Rogers for confirming that conservatroids like you are incapable of thinking for themselves.

Norman's not paid enough by the GOP to think for himself, while keiser is obviously paid too much.

Posted by: Thumb at March 13, 2004 06:53 AM | PERMALINK

Krauthammer has hit a new low, quoting Jay Leno as a military analyst.

Posted by: rachelrachel at March 13, 2004 07:05 AM | PERMALINK

Okay, so this poll is not scientific. Have any of the regular pollsters ever asked this series of questions? Before I put my tinfoil away, I'd be curious to know what Americans really think about this. Remember the old adage, just because you're paranoid doesn't mean that they're not out to get you.
Cheers.

Posted by: r. Houston Bridges at March 13, 2004 07:22 AM | PERMALINK

This was an online poll? I think I remember seeing it posted in a democraticunderground.com forum, maybe - I'd say this poll was targeted.

Posted by: UncleTupelo at March 13, 2004 07:40 AM | PERMALINK

I just went & looked at it again - the poll was targeted by DU - ignore it.

Posted by: UncleTupelo at March 13, 2004 07:52 AM | PERMALINK

Except one little problem with your silly, BLAME BUSH FOR TERRORISM.. It was John Kerry who was actually a Senator i Washington during the entire RISE of Al Queda...he was on the committees, he saw the intelligence, he knew they were a threat//

WHAT DID KERRY DO FROM THE FIRST WTC ATTACK IN 1993 UNTIL THE SECOND ONE IN 2001 TO PROTECT THE NATION????


ANSWER: A BIG FAT NOTHING THAT HELPS AND EVERTYHING THAT HURT.

So what did Kerry know about the Al Queda threat and when did he know it??? Why were hhis only actions to respond to the terrorists was to cut defense and cut intelligence??

JOHNNY HAS SOME SPLAININ' TO DO!

Posted by: keiser at March 13, 2004 08:11 AM | PERMALINK

I know I post this quote over and over, but it's just too good not to use.

"I deeply resent the way this administration makes me feel like a nutbar conspiracy theorist." - Teresa Nielsen Hayden


Posted by: Hamilton Lovecraft at March 13, 2004 08:28 AM | PERMALINK

Friday append-a-quote:

Kevin Drum:

"But right before the election? Nah. That's wingnut territory. Right?"


Friday's best coinage:

takema on March 12, 2004 @ 11:07 PM:

"busholini"

Posted by: -pea- at March 13, 2004 08:35 AM | PERMALINK

It reminds me of when Clinton was accused of selling burial plots in Arlington Cemetery, and when it turned out he hadn't, instead of apologizing the accusers said "Well, you can't blame us for believing it, since it sure sounds like the sort of thing Clinton would do."

The Bushies' credibility vanished with the WMDs.

Posted by: Charlie T. at March 13, 2004 09:40 AM | PERMALINK

My god, who let this "keister" troll in here? Can't you afford a bouncer to keep the riffraff out?

Posted by: Dawson's Crack at March 13, 2004 12:10 PM | PERMALINK

If that poll was hammered by the conspiracy loons from DU it's worthless.

And, yes, the October surprise scenario is wingnut territory.

Posted by: Randal Robinson at March 13, 2004 01:49 PM | PERMALINK

what biased choices... ridiculous.

Posted by: AL FRANKEN at March 13, 2004 02:49 PM | PERMALINK

They have already claimed that they are now "stepping up" the effort to capute Osama..

Why now?

Personally I hope the French catch him.

Posted by: Andrew | BYTE BACK at March 13, 2004 04:51 PM | PERMALINK

When I entertain my paranoid fantasies (they insist on dinner *and* a movie), I see John Kerry giving his nominating speech at the convention, and, ten seconds after he mentions the word "terrorism," the networks get breaking news from the White House that OBL is dead/captured. The networks switch over to that, and the rest of Kerry's speech goes unheard and unremembered.

Then I take the aluminum foil and use it cover the casserole, and things get back to normal.

Posted by: J D Eisenberg at March 13, 2004 07:37 PM | PERMALINK

I don't care if they catch him on Christmas and have Santa deliver him while John Kerry is working on his inauguration speech (now I'm kidding), as long as they catch him.

Posted by: Justene at March 14, 2004 12:19 PM | PERMALINK

Well what is really stupid is to be expecting Ridge to answer such an irresponsible question.

Posted by: A.W. at March 14, 2004 12:34 PM | PERMALINK

Andrew | BYTE BACK notes:

"Personally I hope the French catch him."

Bag that, with 25 million dollars on his head, I
hope that I am the one lucky enough to catch him...

Seriously though, the Bush team is clueless to the
ways of the world. They touted that all would be
well once Saddam was captured... Is it? I sense that Pakistan's Khan was more of a threat to
world security than Saddam ever was--still Bush's
talking heads saw their way clear of giving the
man a get-out-of-jail free card... Proliferation
is the reason (one of the reasons) we s'posedly
went to war in Iraq, right? Khan's acts laughed
in the face of that notion, and the Bush administration
casting of a blind eye to that fact makes our
actions, and activities in Iraq the butt of a
pathetic joke.

Alright, this is not me ridiculing our troops on
the ground, they are doing as directed by their
leadership, on behalf of the American people. That
they do not openly question their orders is a sign
of extreme respect that the American people should
be proud of. That they are there on behalf of the
American people to promote our policy is something
we all should be proud of... That is if the
policy is sound and within our nation's interest
and within the realm of National Security.

It is these last two issues that I have a problem
with. It is because of these issues that the
President now has problems, and why our military
is stuck in a conflict with no clear evacuation
plan on hand.

These two issues drive to the heart of Bush's
ongoing credibility problem. This is not a Balkan
issue, you cannot throw billions of dollars at the
problem and watch it fade away--though lord knows
we are trying.

So there is a poll discussing the possibilities of
an October Surprise. Well, what if there was a
surpise, but more in the way of a tragedy. Bush
is running on the fact that he is a strong leader
during tragedy--what would happen if another
national tragedy occurred just before election day?

Think Spain and how their elections vetted out...

Sry to be so maudlin over the matter, but there
are people behind the President who would use
circumstance to promote their own agenda's. The
fact that the question appeared on a poll calls
atention to such grave concerns...

PK sends...

Posted by: PK at March 15, 2004 04:37 AM | PERMALINK

I fear Osama (or his carcass, or an amazing facsimile thereof) will be produced just in time for the November election. But only if it looks like Bush might REALLY get defeated.

My $20 is down on Oct. 31st -- Happy Halloween!

Time enough to make the entire world aware, but not time enough for any real backlash, investigation, or for the bounce in popularity to fade.

But, if Bush is riding high in October, why bother? Let the War on Terrorism Without End Forever Amen continue! Defense contracts for everyone!

Posted by: Jeff, south of Wingnuttery at March 15, 2004 07:31 AM | PERMALINK

My theory is, they will need a multi-part piece of stagecraft to get the umbers they will need. I think, first they will rpime the pump by finding a large cache of weapons of mass destruction from the 80s and 90s in Iraq. They are planting the "evidence", now , so it shold be revealed soon.

That will give them a short boost that will fade as the bloggers begin to question the sources. Then right before the election, Osama pops out of the cake. This has got to happen long enough before the election for people to have heard about the event - but not long enough for Bush's fade to happen.

The election will be close. Diebold will swing the balance, and Bush will be back in office in 2004!

Go Team!

Posted by: Scott fanetti at March 15, 2004 10:00 AM | PERMALINK

?Khan was willing to sell blueprints, centrifuges, and the latest in weaponry. He was the worst nuclear-arms proliferator in the world and he?s pardoned?with not a squeak from the White House.?

Posted by: _disturbed at March 15, 2004 11:18 AM | PERMALINK

Political expediency comes before reality, "disturbed". Pakistan is currently our ally - so obviously they are not evil or intent on spreading WMDs. Only our enemies need to be focused upon.

Posted by: Scot Fanetti at March 15, 2004 11:29 AM | PERMALINK

Agreed, Scot.

And Musharaf is in a tenuous position as a leader that is "friendly" to our nation. To jeopardize his position through undue pressure is risky at best. However, Khan was and is an enemy of the world as we know it. These "nuclear bazaars" were abhorrent and there is evidence that these were known by the intelligence community at least by 1999. It is irresponsible for this administration to run under a record of "strong" national security when it fights shadows of the real threats while trade of technology capable of 1,000 Sept. 11s is "pardoned".

Posted by: _disturbed at March 15, 2004 01:02 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin, I'm more interested in why you said this:

"This is ridiculous. I can't stand the guy (Bush), but even I don't think that. Let's get a grip folks."

What is ridiculous about either of those possibilities?

I don't know what it is about Bush and the group of Repubs that he surrounds himself with that you find incapable of such tactics.

Just from this Bush and this war, we've witnessed one Jessica Lynch hero story that was completely fabricated, and Saddam's capture by US forces, when it was the Kurds who apprehended him and turned him over to the US military.

From this branch of the Repub party, we learn recently that Nixon had his own Oct Surprise in his election with Humphrey.

Bush's father and Reagan carried out their Oct Surprise, and Jimmy Carter believes it.

What is it that you don't believe about these Repubs, Kevin? Are you saying that you think Bush is a moral and honest man?

I don't think that Bush has a moral or honest bone in his body. I know that Cheney and Rumsfeld don't. The stakes are so high for these guys in this election. Do they have OBL on ice somewhere? I don't know. But I know that I don't put a thing past them.

I find myself getting more and more peeved at people like you, Kevin. You just can't believe such a thing! It was this same attitude that kept us in Vietnam for years. It was this same attitude that got Reagan reelected. It was the same attitude that got reelected repubs in 2000 after the impeach debaucle, "they'll have learned their lesson and will work nicely with demos now".

If there is an Oct Surprise, I think it's going to be something else. If they haven't found OBL and their numbers are really sinking, I think forces in Iraq are going to suddenly find a grand cache of WMD. 2-3 days before the election. After the election, it'll prove to have been a mistake. Testing revealed that what was thought to be anthrax or ricin will be nothing more than mannitol (baby laxative).


Posted by: Carrie at March 15, 2004 05:40 PM | PERMALINK

Carrie notes:

"I think forces in Iraq are going to suddenly find a grand cache of WMD. 2-3 days before the election. After the election, it'll prove to have been a mistake. Testing revealed that what was thought to be anthrax or ricin will be nothing more than mannitol (baby laxative).
"

For Bush's sake, that better be a butt-load of laxative, cause I personally believe they would go the route of planting such a story as this in order to sway opinion their direction...

Posted by: PK at March 16, 2004 06:20 AM | PERMALINK

Kevin, you say this posting is a joke. The WTAE-TV website says this "Poll" is not statistically valid and should be considered entertainment only.
Yet, that doesn't stop thoughtless, rabid Bush haters from piling on and talking trash.

Undergrad journalilsm students, at least at my university, learned that methodology of taking samples of public opinion and framing of questions are key to devising an accurate poll.

I've been out of college a while, but three flaws in this poll jumped out at me. The sample is self-selected...there is no safeguard against multiple voting (I voted twice to test this)... and the poll questions are designed to skew the results.

The thrust of the poll is not to determine if respondents think the President will pull an "October Surprise", WTAE's pollster clearly feel the President will do something underhanded. It's about how the President will do it.

This worthless "push-poll" seems designed to fabricate a baseless charge against the President, a charge directly contradicted by the President's recent actions. By taking the poll, WTAE creates an opportunity to publicize this false charge, giving it a veneer of pseudoscientific validity.

Hyperventilating Democrat Bush haters might recall that when Americans captured Saddam Hussein in December-- an event as significant as the capture of Osama will be -- that news was promptly released to the world. The President did not keep this a secret until it could do him some political good. There is no reason to believe the President would delay the news of Osama's capture for political reasons.

But when it comes to talking smack about the President, among bottom-feeding "news outlets" like WTAE-TV, and among unthinking Democrats, anything bad one can say about the President is said and rehashed, and truth and reason mean nothing. In fact it seems, the bigger the lie, the better liberal media and Democrats like it.

Posted by: Mike W at March 17, 2004 06:28 AM | PERMALINK

Mike W:
I don't know where you went to school, but I'd be surprised if your journalism classes taught about push polling. In fact, I'd be doubly surprised: one, because that's not journalism, and two, because what you're discussing here is not a push poll... not is it intended to be a scientific poll. The same, of course, is true of all those Wolf Blitzer polls that ran during the war in Iraq. Maybe you can enlighten us with all the deep secrets of polling methodology you learned in journalism class?

Perhaps you could also tell us why the capture of Saddam Hussein was "an event as significant as the capture of Osama will be." I have a number of conservative friends who will be suprised by this claim, and might need some convincing.

C'mon, tell us what you know. We're waiting...

Posted by: keith at March 19, 2004 05:11 AM | PERMALINK

George W. Bush is doing his job defending the nation. Had Gore been in office, he would have walked in to the U.N Security Council, and said, "That wasn't very nice."

Iraq has become a latter-day Vietnam for the liberals. They have it wrong, though. We are not trying to defend a tenuous democracy, but defend America from people who want to destroy us.

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