January 16, 2004
HANDICAPPING....I don't do a lot of minute-by-minute tracking
of poll results here — partly because I think you lose perspective by
paying too much attention to this stuff and partly because other people do
it better than me anyway — but if you're interested in politics it's
hard not to be pretty riveted by what's going on right now.
In Iowa, Zogby claims that Dean's lead has evaporated and that Kerry is leading with 24% of the vote. Dean and Gephardt each have 19% and Edwards has 17%.
And in New Hampshire the ARG tracking poll has Dean's lead narrowed to 28% vs. 23% for Clark (Kerry is third with 16%).
So is Dean really in trouble? I think he might be, especially since
my instinct has long been that Dean doesn't wear very well among
non-true believers and that his support would start to falter as he got
more exposure. (On the other hand, I never thought that Kerry would
manage to do very well either, so take my instincts with a grain of
At a broad level, fundraising prowess and national poll results still
make me think this is a Dean/Clark race, but it might eventually get
trickier than that. I hate to bring this up again, since
even I admit it's an old chestnut that never pans out, but these poll
results sure make a brokered convention look more likely, don't they?
Regardless of how he does in Iowa and New Hampshire, Dean has a ton
of money and isn't going away. There's no way he ends up the primary
season with less than 30-40% of the delegates. But if Kerry and
Gephardt get enough votes in Iowa to stay alive and keep the money
rolling in, they could each easily end up with 10-15% of the delegates
even if they basically end up doing poorly. And Clark, who has a lot of
appeal in places where Dean doesn't, along with proven fundraising
prowess, is very likely to either beat Dean outright or else stay very
close on his heels. Here's what I could very easily see happening:
This still doesn't necessarily mean a literally
brokered convention, but it could mean that in the end the difference
comes from who Kerry and Gephardt throw their endorsement to when they
eventually drop out of the race. There's enough bad blood between those
two and Dean that it's hard to see them endorsing him, but I don't know
how they feel about Clark either.
This is turning into quite a thrill ride.
Posted by Kevin Drum at January 16, 2004 10:23 AM
In Iowa, Zogby claims that Dean's lead has evaporated and that
Kerry is leading with 24% of the vote. Dean and Gephardt each have 19%
and Edwards has 17%.
Zogby? Oh yeah, he's reliable. A reliable Republican:
- Rush Limbaugh bestowed on Zogby the "my favorite pollster" mantle, a
kind of calling card for use among political conservatives. By October
of 1998, Zogby had reiterated in National Review his findings about the
public's opinion of the Lewinsky affair. That year Zogby also did some
60 polls for the Republican Congressional Committee. It's no wonder that
many today still think he's a Republican pollster.
- More precisely, Zogby is a pollster who works with a lot of
Republicans, and in ways that are not always disclosed. Most journalists
were probably unaware that some of Zogby's so-called American Values
Polls were a joint venture with an organization called Associated
Television News, which has a very strong Republican pedigree. Associated
Television News is run by Bradley O'Leary, a longtime Republican
consultant known for his legendary fundraising abilities and for doing
direct mail for the National Rifle Association (NRA). Zogby told the
Prospect that O'Leary's role in the surveys wasn't always made apparent
but, "Anyone who asked, to the best of my knowledge, was told." However,
when columnist Arianna Huffington asked Zogby about the funder of an
American Values Poll in April of 2000, according to her column, he
responded, "I can't say who it is, but he publishes a newsletter in
which he prints the poll's results." Presumably that newsletter would be
the O'Leary Report.
- The strongly Republican slant of the O'Leary-Zogby surveys is
unmistakable. One released in October 2000 found that voters favored
George W. Bush over Gore on "20 out of 25" campaign issues. Or, as the
Zogby International/Associated Television News press release put it,
"Bush Overwhelms Gore On Presidential Campaign's Major Public Policy
Issues." That's a pretty convenient finding for a longtime Republican
consultant just before a presidential election, which may be why
Associated Television News was only identified in the release as an
organization that "has covered domestic and international news for 20
years" while Zogby International was described as "a respected,
non-partisan polling firm."
Thrill ride? Sure, for horse race fans, but will it be good for the
eventual nominee? I see money flying out of the coffers that might be
more effectively used against Bush.
(Speaking of horse races, how long before Howard Dean fans start wearing the red jerseys with the white "H" from Seabiscuit?)
I see Kerry and Gephardt, if they get a bounce out of Iowa, hittig
the wall when the money runs out. All except Dean and Clark are running
campaigns on a shoestring, and mini-Tuesday and super-Tuesday only have
rooms for candidates that can run a competent 50-state campaign. Dean
and Clark are the only two candidates with the ground infrastructure to
pull it off. Whatever the delegate-distribution schemes are, the press
is going to write off any candidate that is slowly-but-surely acquiring
If Clark can seize the day and cast himself as the frontrunner, he
has a chance to beat out Dean (and his choice to skip Iowa looks
all-the-wiser, now), but I don't see any room for anyone else to retake
On Bad Blood: Don't forget that McCain came
to put South Carolina behind him such that
he could mention aWol's name in polite company.
I wish Dean and Clark could hook up soon and put all the negativity to rest. They'd make an unbeatable team.
If it gets too far into the primaries and they have to duke it out,
the Repugnicans will just use their fightin' words as fodder.
Having Dean on the ticket as a Vice President (as a consolation
prize, I suppose) could be the best of both worlds for some people.
Dean can still raise tons and tons of money (only him and Kerry will
still have money after February, and only him and Kerry can raise more
money pre-end of July). Nobody votes on Vice Presidents (thank you Dan
Quyale), and the idea that Dean will "turn off" voters is mitigated.
Finally, Dean being on the ticket may help "legitimize" the winner
amongst the true believers, getting them out to the poll.
I'd prefer Dean win the nomination, but Veep may be a lot more
practical. If he get's 35% and a "corrupt bargain" occurs (which makes
sense, as the 65% would be an anti-Dean vote majority)...a Clark/Dean
ticket could go a long way to victory in November.
I think that it is something to worry about if Dean has a delegate
lead (not a majority, a plurality) and some of the other delegates throw
support behind Clark, giving him a majority. The reason I worry about
it is that this election, at least in battleground states, may hinge
upon which party gets its base out. If too many people cry "foul" or
"corrupt bargain" because Dean doesn't get the nomination even though he
has a plurality, might that piss enough people off or seem to poison
the process so much that people don't bother to show up at the polls?
I realize that most Dem voters will vote for any candidate running
against Bush, but it only takes a few thousand people in a snit on
election day staying home (or independents sick of what the press will
indubitably paint as "corrupt politics" voting for Bush the Lesser) to
sway the vote in certain states.
If Dean loses both Iowa and New Hampshire, he's done. All the money
in the world won't beat down the loser image the media will hand him.
I don't trust Zogyb's Iowa tracking poll. Not because I think he's biased, or a bad pollster, or even because I like Dean.
I don't trust it because polling Iowa has always been difficult,
and tracking polls only magnify that difficulty. I'd be surprised if
even the first round of voting results in something remotely like the
Zogby poll, much less the final results (after all the caucus
As for NH, I think that Clark's new worry isn't Dean, but Kerry.
Most of Clark's recent support came at the expense of Kerry (Anyone
watching the NH tracking poll could see Clark gaining Kerry supporters).
Should Kerry come in first, or even second, a lot of Clark's most
recent support might jump right back to Kerry.
And, judging by the media lately, it's starting to be Clark's turn
to suffer the slings and arrows of a bored media. (And, of course, the
oppo-researchers of Dean, Kerry, and Gephardt. Fair's fair...as Chris
Lehane was undoubtably behind a lot of Dean's recent problems..)
Of course, Kerry can't leave the Senate to take a VP spot or a SecState
slot as a consolation, since Mitt Romney, a Republican, is governor and
would appoint his successor. Just to add that wrinkle.
Kevin, I agree with you. I think watching the polls can alter one's
perceptions and distort what the reality is on the ground. Day to day
tracking polls are important, but they're not everything. Besides,
political races have a tendency to tighten up towards the end -
particularly if there's no incumbent. The Gore/Bush race certainly did.
Remember -- IOWA IS A CAUCUS STATE!! In caucuses, ORGANIZATION IS
EVERYTHING. There are only two campaigns that have significant
organizations ON THE GROUND. Those campaigns are Gephardt's and Dean's.
My view of the changing polling numbers is that those numbers are very bad news for Gephardt. Not so much for Dean.
Kerry's forces are light on the ground. He *COULD* be put in a bad
position if he comes in third, after Dean and Gephardt. Expectations
for him are rising.
At any rate, we'll soon know.
I don't like it when people do off-topic posts, but..
Here's a prediction: no matter who gets the top slot, Edwards will be
their VP pick. He's got the good ideas; he's got the Southern appeal;
he's got the nice-guy, non-angry image. He's prime VP material.
What I hate most about politics is CW. The cable news is nearly
unbearable because its all 24 hours of stereotypes and shallow analysis.
Only one CW is true, and that's that politics is unpredictable. If
Kerry would come out on top, I wish the pundits, including those who
have long concluded that Kerry's campaign is a lost cause, would take a
lesson from this and just shut up.
(For example, I remember Cokie Roberts predicting once that Kerry
wouldn't win because we don't elect Senators. That was it. That was the
extent of her analysis. Ugh.)
By the way, I support Dean.
Polls in Iowa are unreliable because the turnout is so tiny. Dean
and Gephardt have the best organizations in the state, so both will turn
out a higher proportion of their voters than the polls say.
A brokered convention where the guy who gets the most delegates does not win is a disaster.
After that, the candidate could be GOD, and the electorate will still see him as a corrupt party apparachik.
my instinct has long been that Dean doesn't wear very well among
non-true believers and that his support would start to falter as he got
Maybe, Kevin, that's because the majority of Dean news coverage has been negative, some of it wildly so. See this article about a new study showing that coverage of Dean has been markedly more negative than coverage of the other Dem candidates.
Some of the negative coverage has been warranted, to be sure, but a
lot of it has been pure animosity on the part of our Heather Press
Corps. Witness the roundly criticized ABC News smear piece a few days
ago. That was only the culmination of a long trend in negative coverage
of Dean; after all, why did the producers at ABC think they could do
what they did and keep their standing as a legitimate news source?
Because they'd seen lots of other hit pieces on Dean, and nobody else
seemed to mind. They just pushed it a little bit over the line, and even
Mickey Kaus took notice.
Clark is starting to get this kind of nasty coverage (witness the "He
supported the Iraq war" absurdity. But Clark would be getting much more
and much worse had he been the frontrunner this past month.
I don't think Zogby is deliberately skewing anything, but it's true
that his results are often off base. And Iowa is a very hard state to
survey anyway because of the way the caucuses work.
So yeah, don't pay too much attention to this. On the other
hand, I wouldn't dismiss it completely either, even if the results don't
happen to favor whoever your guy happens to be.
That tracking poll is vague at best, complete shit at worst. Hell,
Sharpton's 0.1% support calculates to half a person supporting him
(which I pointed out in this post.) I'm convinced that it'll be a two man race by the end of super Tuesday.
I'm not just saying this as a Dean supporter, but I think one of the
reasons he got as far as he did was that he's got a lot of tricks up his
sleeve. The CW for months was that no Dem insiders liked him. But then
he pulled a Gore endorsement out of seemingly thin air. While I don't
think he has any big surprises for Iowa, I think his chances post-New
Hampshire are only going to get better.
I wish I knew what Dean had planned for Sunday. I just don't see
him popping off to Georgia for tea and Sunday School with Carter the day
before the Iowa Caucus.
I don't see Carter endorsing him either (Carter seemed pretty firm
on that), so the question becomes: What the hell is he doing in Georgia
Dean's recipe for a perfect storm in Iowa calls for big -- positive
-- news on Saturday or Sunday, to dominate media coverage through the
Dean will win due to the unrecognized "young" vote. This will be the
deciding issue in not only the primaries but the general election. If
you notice the coverage on cable you mostly see middle-aged and older
viewers being interviewed.
These people are being swayed by the unceasing "unelectable" meme and
the "negative image stories and ads" against Dean by his opponents and
the SCLM (not to mention the RNC).
Nowhere do you see coverage of the input of young people who are
responding to the message of hope. This is the first election since the
60's that young voters will play a role. The question is how large it
will be. However, it should be more than enought to give a few point
edge to Dean in IA. The tightening of the race CW will help Dean in PR
terms. A month ago even if he won by 10 points it would have been ho
hum news because it was expected. Now a 4 point win will be miraculous.
Dean is "Seabiscuit". Looks them all in the eye after they catch up
and then runs away with it because he has the biggest "heart".
"I wish Dean and Clark could hook up soon and put all the negativity to rest. They'd make an unbeatable team."
Chris- Amen! How often in our lifetime will the Democratic party be
blessed with a handsome 4-star general with progressive social views,
and a fiery doctor who has a kickass grassroots army and a powerhouse
fundraising operation? It's a combo made in heaven, and I think
somebody needs to fire up a blog specifically to begin advocating for
that ticket. Anybody want to conspire? Send me an email....
I speculated this week about what might result if (1) Kerry and Dean
finish 1,2 in Iowa, and (2) Dean only squeaks by in NH. You'd have the
bizarre situation of Gep being essentially out of it, Kerry somehow back
in it, and Dean having to defend against "choke" allegations.
But then it may not play out that way. Iowa's a really funny with
the caucus situation. If you do the math, adding Kucinich and Sharpton
votes in the Dean column, and Clark and Lieberman votes in the Gephardt
column, the end may look nothing like the polls (remember, there's a
wrangle for the candidates who don't muster 15%). Add to that the
notorious difficulty in polling a caucus state, and who knows.
Then in New Hampshire, Dean will have a week to make up some ground.
Clark may well find himself the greater target because #2 is going to
be so important there (especially if Kerry's desperately clinging to a
hope of staying alive).
I still think the balance is tilted toward Dean, but wise pundits should probably avoid confident declarative predictions.
The other guys need Iowa much more Dean. The only bad thing about
Iowa is that Dean was ahead there for awhile, so it looks like he's
That said, many of us believed that if Dean won Iowa and New
Hampshire, it was over, besides an outside chance for Clark somehow to
slide in with a strong showing on Super Tuesday.
That's the genesis of the Dean or Clark talk.
If Kerry wins in Iowa, that makes things a bit more interesting. It
definitely helps him that Ted Kennedy is doing the rounds for him. But
I'm not sure that Kerry's charisma is going to keep hitting around the
country, or that Dean's grassroots and cash aren't going to double
and/or triple if he loses Iowa.
What I like about all of this is that it's more of a race now, which
makes it more exciting. I still think it will be Dean or Clark, but if
Kerry can win in Iowa, and keep Kennedy on the campaign trail, he's
suddenly a darkhorse again.
As for Gephardt, I just don't see it.
As for Edwards, there's potential, but it's hard to see how he stands out amongst the group.
What would make this race get very, very interesting would be for it
to turn in to a 5-man race with the worst of the 5 at around 15%
Say Dean at 26%, Clark at 22%, Kerry at 20%, Gephardt at 17%, and Edwards at 15%.
That would be crazy! In the back of my mind though I've got Dean's
enthusiasm, campaign, cash, and endorsements in view, and barring
something unexpected or extraordinary, that's going to be hard to beat.
Dean could win or lose both IA and NH -- as long as the margins are
close -- and the real shape of the race will still be visible only after
the Feb 3 vote. IA and NH are only very significant for Dean if he
wins big. Otherwise it's a wash. These states always matter less than
everyone thinks at the time. Feb 3 is the real deal.
I firmly believe that the reason why Dean has been "faltering" in the
polls is because he is being hammered in the press. It's not because
people are starting to see that he's not a viable candidate, it's that
people are being force fed that he's got all these issues and that his
lead is slipping. The news media wants something to write about and
their strategy of whacking Dean is working (at least in Iowa and NH).
I also harken back to the Bush / McCain battle in NH in the 2000 race.
McCain winning didn't mean anything in the long run. Dean will win
eventually. Iowa and NH are overhyped and overpolled.
Zogby is nowhere near the "favorite GOPer's pollster anymore" for two
reasons: 1) His pretty accurate call on the 2000 presidential contest
--forecasting the last moment surge toward Al Gore.
2) Unfair as it may be, the fact that Zogby's brother James is head
of the Arab-American Institute and a self-described Democrat causes many
Republicans to be suspicious of John Zogby.
If the Dems continue on their course of criticizing Bush above all
else, here's my prediction -- Bush wins by a near landslide and the
Republicans pick up at least 3 senate seats and 5 house seats.
I think some of you guys are neglecting the fundamentals of the expectations game.
It's possible that Dean will win Iowa.
If he doesn't, though, the press will punish him. Because he's been
the frontrunner in Iowa, and by quite a significant margin. Because he
had an "air of inevitability" and had become almost the presumed winner
... even the presumed nominee.
If he loses, one of the big stories will be the decline of the Dean
campaign. The other will be the surge of the winner, whoever that may
Given that Dean's numbers have been sliding in New Hampshire too, the continuation of a "Dean decline" theme could be deadly.
The big mo is great, when you have it, but it can be a bitch when it goes the other way.
I like Kerry and Edwards. Dean, not so much. Clark, not at all.
But that's just me.
"In Iowa, Zogby claims that Dean's lead has evaporated and that Kerry is leading with 24% of the vote."
Hmm. Kos is going to need some crisp thinking (and he has that) to
explain how this shows that he should rank Kerry 6th. I imagine he and
his readers will enjoy it, though of course Kos could simply delete this
poll. And maybe the next one.
Hey, if it works, it works.
All I care about is W voted out in November (and him actually
leaving in Jan.). As a vegan (like Kos), and progressive, I like Kuc,
but realize he will never win.
All that matters is Bush / Cheney out. Not only 'cause of all the
people they have hurt, but because I truly believe that their arrogance
and corruption are placing the U.S. in a terrible, historic decline.
Gep finishes third in IA and drops out.
Kerry finishes third (or fourth) in NH and drops out.
From this emerges a Dean/Edwards ticket with Clark as Sec Def or Sec State, or a Clark/Dean ticket with Edwards as A.G.
I think Dean needs to be on the ticket for both the Deaniacs and the fact that he opted out and can keep spending money.
I think the Dems should run a full shadow cabinet. Absolutely pull out all the stops. Finally stand up together.
One big question is whether Joe Lieberman gets the memo after NH and goes home.
He's bombing there now, where he's headquartered and has been
campaigning for a long time. If he finishes a distant third - or even
fourth, which seems possible, will he pack it in? If he does, or if his
supporters give up hope, that's roughly ten percent up for grabs for
Edwards, Clark, and Kerry.
Just to give an example, early in the campaign I was a fan of Dean
from the moment I heard his "I don't want to listen to fundamentalist
preachers anymore" line. But I have to say that he didn't wear well on
me. First off, we seem to shrug off the importance of the candidate
being telegenic. Clark and Edwards are telegenic. Dean is not, with
his bulging neck, lack of an upper lip and a rather creepy grimace that
passes for a smile. Early on that started to worry me. On a more
substantial note, I lost more potential for support when Dean started in
about repealing all of Bush's tax cuts. Even if that is a good thing
(not convinced) there is simply no way in hades that happens with the
Congress we're going to get, unless anyone seriously thinks we're taking
back both the Senate and the House this year. That means any proposals
that plan on having all those cuts removed are flawed because the funds
will not be there as planned. Then there were the flip flops that
showed me that Dean will pretty much take any position that gathers more
support. Not saying there aren't other candidates doing the same
thing, but I don't like it from them either.
One reason for all the negative press has been that there are a lot
of people who really don't like Dean. His followers seem almost
cult-like from the outside, and give fanatical support, but I haven't
been able to see how Dean deserves such support. It's not like he's
going to govern by blog. While bringing in new people is great, and by
itself means Dean deserves a VP slot, I don't buy his whole "taking
America back from the special interest-it's-about-you-not-about-me"
stuff. I think it's about the grassroots right up til the day Dean gets
elected. If he could get elected. At any rate, so long as more people
dislike Dean than like him, the negative press will continue.
I don't mean to be mean. If Dean wins the nom I'll support him. But
I want to win in November and that means putting the absolute strongest
team up against Bush. Clark/Dean is that team in my opinion. Clark as
Commander in Chief, and Dean handling the domestic agenda and having a
chance to get 4-8 years of foreign policy and national governing
experience before finally getting the top job himself, if he could get
it from Hillary, anyway.
I was rude to Kos, but he exactly deserves it. He's a liar, and a paid one. Sorry.
Which doesn't mean he can't write, he can.
Ben wrote: "If the Dems continue on their course of criticizing
Bush above all else, here's my prediction -- Bush wins by a near
landslide and the Republicans pick up at least 3 senate seats and 5
Ben, dear, just how do you think that you're supposed to run against
an incumbent President without criticizing him? That's just dumb. Of
course they're going to go after Bush's record, just as he's going to be
running on his record. In every election where an incumbent is involved, the challenger attacks the incumbent.
I just don't see why Kerry would drop out if he finishes 3rd in both.
An Iowa Dean, Gephardt, Kerry and a NH Clark, Dean, Kerry sets him up
as the national anti-Dean candidate. Dean is running into a Patrick
Buchanan wall - he can't crack 1/3 of primary voters. Kerry's potential
campaign death is SC/OK/AZ the next week. Same with Gephardt. Both
need top 2's in one or more of those 3 states and decent numbers across
the board to compete. Actually, so does everyone. Any candidate who
doesn't top 2 in one of the three that day, other than Sharpton, will
exit - Edwards needs to win one, or be second in all of them. Maybe
Dean, if he wins Iowa and NH, COULD stay in with 3rds in the 3 sun belt
states, but he better sweep the other primaries that day.
Sharpton has his reasons for staying in and making noise, much like Alan Keyes four years ago, with equal relevence.
After the 2nd, if we still have the big five in the race (Clark,
Dean, Edwards, Gephardt, Kerry) we COULD be looking at a split
Did anyone else see the video clip "from the RNC" that lazy Judy
Woodruff showed today on Insides politics? Kerry was doing a singalong
"puff the magic dragon" session, and pretended to take a toke. Got big
laughs, but is being presented on CNN as totally inappropriate...
This is turning into a disaster for the Dems.
They keep on beating each other up, doing Rove's dirty work for him.
Whoever they end up nominating will be so diminished in stature for
having had to say any number of absurd "suck up"
statements during the pandering primary season.
Bush will not win fewer than 46 states. If Dean is the nominee, Bush
might beat Reagan's mark and get all the electoral votes except those of
DC and Vermont. Clark would do slightly better than Dean. The one
who actually can pull some states away from Bush is Gephardt, but he
can't win a national election.
From one Ben to another. This election will not be a landslide.
There's article in the Washington Post today about this. Barring a
spectacular event - another 9/11 terrorist attack, an economic crash,
Bush caught with another woman, etc. - its very unlikely either
candidate goes below 45% of the vote. Personally, I think Bush is going
to win, but not by more than a couple points.
In fact, I am willing to bet on that 45% number.
My prediction - I'll say Bush 52%, Dem candidate 48% is the final outcome.
Simply put, the country is way more partisan than it was in 1984.
Indeed, the Republicans are more clearly identified as a conservative
party than the Democrats are a liberal party, so although there are
more self-identified conservatives than liberals in the electorate, the
Dems capitalize on being able to win a lot of moderates who are in fact
partisan Dems. Indeed, it is my rather unCW that the electorate is more
liberal than it was in the 1970s and 1980s - and even in the 1990s.
I dislike rubber-banding threads, but I can't leave an ad hominem
standing without data. Kos's Cattle Call threads over several weeks
contain my vain corrections to his systematic downplaying of Kerry,
which went so far as to move Kerry up a place (to avoid open ridicule
one week) with the surgically attached down arrow parked alongside it.
Now that's creative thinking.
Again, fw - I think you're wrong.
And again, I would bet on Bush's reelection, but it won't be a landslide.
Indeed, the Republican "landslide" of 2002 was far from it - it broke
something like 52/53-48/47 in the Rs favor. I wouldn't call that a
Ben P --
You may be right in saying it will come down 52-48. I see it more
like 54-44-2 (the other two come for assorted minor parties including
the Greens). If my breakdown is correct, that is, in fact, a
landslide. Even with your closer popular vote outcome, the electoral
vote will still be a landslide for W.
Check out the odds on Bush's reelection in Vegas.
The odds have been steadily shortening. That is a better indication than all the polling data in the world.
You could be right with those numbers, but the Dems 44% is reasonable
by historical numbers, particularly against an incumbent who isn't
unpopular (if not universally or stuningly popular either). Also, 44% is
still pretty close to the 45% I think is a Dem baseline. However, the
third party thing is something I hadn't considered that could come into
BTW, Norman, that's one of the smarter assessments of Dean I've read - I guess its because it mirrors my own feelings.
I guess at the end of the day, fw, you're just a bit more pessimistic
about things than I am. And BTW, how would 52-48 split cause an
electoral landslide? Maybe Bush takes 300+ electoral votes in this
scenario, but I really don't see him taking over 40 states. VT, MA, NY,
MD, WA, CA, RI and a few others are beyond the realm of possibly, IMO.
No way in hell that Bush gets 55% of the vote. He'll be lucky to
pull 50%, and even to win. People get so hung up on today, and not
months from now when people will be voting, and all of the Bush scandals
will be played out, and the 9/11 Commission will report, and jobs will
still be a mystery, and so on and on and on and on...
Dream on. You can make yourself happy for the next ten months
wishing that what you wrote becomes true, but you'll be in for a cold
wake-up call on the morning of Nov 3rd. Get your expectations in line
with reality, and you'll avoid the severe depression that I think you
may be in for come Nov 3rd.
"...a lot of appeal where Dean doesn't"?
Kevin, this is pretty outrageous given that Dean leads Clark in most of the South. Clark is close in only three states.
There are good arguments for Clark but this is not borne out by polling.
fw - I think you need to take a hefty dose of your own advice about
getting your expectations in line with reality, to avoid that severe
depression that you and other dreaming Bushies may be in for come Nov
Face it: Bush couldn't win last time when everyone thought he
was just another Republican frat boy. After four years of broken
promises, lies, and fooling around, he really can't win. Either Dean or Clark can cream him.
chris >"I wish Dean and Clark could hook up soon..."
I believe they already have (an arrangement between themselves)
Clark/Dean or Dean/Clark; either way is a real winner though I think we`d be better off with the Clark/Dean arrangement
Dean would manage domestic affairs & Clark the international
stuff (and the Joint Chiefs would be busy cleaning out their pants
because he knows where their "skeletons" are hidden)
Bush Handlers, Inc. would be in a world of hurt come voting day
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