Contact
Archives
Search
Blogs
Newspaper Blogs
English-Language
Press
Polls

October 24, 2003

ADDING UP THE MONEY....The Madrid donor conference is over. So how much money did we get?

  • Washington Post: "$9 billion in loans and credits and as much as $4 billion in grants for Iraq's reconstruction during the next five years."

  • New York Times: "at least $13 billion over five years."

  • Associated Press: "around $37.5bn (£23bn) in aid and loans."

Compare that to the individual numbers I added up by reading these three stories.

Country

Loans

Grants

Japan

$3.5 billion

$1.5 billion

IMF

$4.2 billion


World Bank

$3-5 billion


Saudi Arabia

$1.5 billion


European Union


$.8 billion

Kuwait

$.5 billion


United Arab Emirates

$.2 billion


Total

$13-15 billion

$2.3 billion

This is ridiculous. Sure, the numbers are probably in flux right now, but the figures from their own stories don't add up to either $13 billion or $37 billion, and the grant money doesn't come close to $4 billion. Can't they even do simple arithmetic?

In any case, it looks like the conference did slightly better than expected but was still sort of a bust: the money is almost all in loans, with only a few billion in outright grants regardless of whose numbers turn out to be right. And that's even after getting a UN resolution and agreeing that all foreign donations would be under the control of an international agency.

Maybe this will get the ball rolling and there will be more donations later. But considering the lack of success we've had even getting Iraq's external debt forgiven, it's hard to be optimistic. It's looking increasingly like we're on our own here.

UPDATE: The LA Times hasn't weighed in yet, but yesterday they predicted that the conference would stump up $20-30 billion. Sheesh.

And one other thing: this was sort of buried, but there were a couple of warnings in these stories that the aid money promised in Madrid isn't all new. Rather, much of it was simply taken away from foreign aid that would have gone to other countries, some of them worse off than Iraq. When all the details are in, I wonder how much incremental money this whole conference will really turn out to have raised?

Posted by Kevin Drum at October 24, 2003 01:18 PM | TrackBack


Comments

A lot of those stories total $ figures are including the US grant/loan amounts, which your table does not have.

Posted by: S at October 24, 2003 01:23 PM | PERMALINK

Thanks much for this chart, Kevin. I was going to do the same, but I was too lazy. Now can just link to yours.

Posted by: tristero at October 24, 2003 01:32 PM | PERMALINK

No they aren't. All three of them, including the AP story, don't include the US figures.

In fact, they specifically add in the US numbers later, coming up with a total of $33 billion. The AP story might just be screwed up, but it also specifically talks about money "on top of" the $20 billion from the U.S.

Posted by: Kevin Drum at October 24, 2003 01:33 PM | PERMALINK

This analysis is very good Kevin. A careful selection of bloogers will do your mind wonders.

Posted by: LuigiBob at October 24, 2003 01:38 PM | PERMALINK

Umm, maybe they just didn't print each and every promise that was made. Hasn't Britain, for example, pledged some money? It ain't on your chart. Spain? Australia?

Do the reporter have an obligation to print every single country that has pledged money? In fact, perhaps the reporters don't even know all the pledges. Was the conference entirely out in the open where every country stood up and said "We pledge to loan $___ and grant $___"? I doubt it. Your criticism seems quite petty, Kevin.

In any case, these things are just pledges anyway. Most of the pledges probably won't even be entirely kept - they certainly weren't re the pledges for Afghanistan last year. Of course, I've never hears any lefties complaining that those countries are unilaterally breaching their international obligations... only the US can do that.

Posted by: Al at October 24, 2003 01:39 PM | PERMALINK

Let's assume that if we'd gotten UN support, the European nations would have contributed ten times as much they are contributing now. That would amount to a whopping $ 8 billion in support.

Let's not forget that the European nations are among the few capable of contributing substantial sums. Most of the countries of the world, like those in Central and South America, Africa, and parts of Asia, are desperately poor and simply can't afford to contribute much of anything, even with a UN resoultion. Nor can most of Eastern Europe, Russia...there are very few nations in a position to do anything.

Moreover, many wealthy countries are too small to make a meaningful contribution. We can't expect the Danish, with a population of only 5 million, to shoulder a meaningful portion of the load.

Ah, yes, allies are so valuable.

Posted by: Joe Schmoe at October 24, 2003 01:40 PM | PERMALINK

I think some of the 'pledged' money includes money already pledged or given. I wonder if this will all fade away like some of the other funding we haven't seen yet.

Posted by: Tripp at October 24, 2003 01:53 PM | PERMALINK

There's a time factor as well. The $75 billion that's been kicked around is supposedly a total for 5 years. the pledges may only be for this year.

And much more important is the amount of Halliburton's overhead. The cost may be 10 times as much if they do it, versus letting Iraqis have the contracts.

Posted by: Roger Bigod at October 24, 2003 02:03 PM | PERMALINK

Ah, yes, allies are so valuable.

They sure were when they paid over $48 billion for the Gulf War, while the U.S. paid only $13 billion.

Posted by: David W. at October 24, 2003 02:07 PM | PERMALINK

Joe,
Besides the money, which as David W. points out was quite valuable during Desert Storm, allies are good for providing troops, given that they believe their interests are also being addressed in a given military action. So how many foreign troops are in Iraq right now vis a vis the proportion of US/non US troops for Yugoslavia at any point, Kosovo, or Desert Storm 1. And allies would be extremely valuable as they would allow the US to be able to be more effective in its negoatiations with North Korea because there would still be forces in the cupboard instead of an emptying reserve component.

Joe, why do you expect countries where there is still widespread public opposition to the US policy in and for Iraq to pony up money when they have been told that they are irrelevent, wrong, immoral, useless, squeamish, wimps until the US needs them to bail the US out. Why?

Posted by: fester at October 24, 2003 02:21 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin,

"International donors Friday pledged more than $33 billion for Iraq's reconstruction in the next four years — nearly two-thirds of it from the United States. "

USA Today:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2003-10-24-iraq-conference_x.htm

Posted by: TR at October 24, 2003 02:22 PM | PERMALINK

I am, more than anything else, terribly disappointed with France and Germany. Opposition to the war based on concerns for the welfare of the Iraqi people is wonderful. However, to then refuse to offer any significant assistance to the reconstruction effort speaks of nothing but alterior motives on the part of France and Germany. They did not want to wage the war because Iraqis would be killed and wounded, and now they refuse to give the aid necessary to keep Iraqis safe and healthy. Selfish? Perhaps, perhaps not. It was our war, not theirs. However, their claims of concern for the Iraqi welfare are invalidated by their inaction when the Iraqis need it most.

Posted by: Jon at October 24, 2003 02:24 PM | PERMALINK

fester: Why? Because helping Iraq become a stable democratic country is the right thing to do. But, obviously, between helping Iraq become a stable democracy and thumbing their noses at the US, we see what France, Germany and the rest will choose every time. Of course, Franceand the others have a lot invested in making sure that Iraq fails -- after all, will Msr Chirac look better if, in a few years, Iraq is stable, properous, and democratic or if Iraq is a mess?

Posted by: Al at October 24, 2003 02:29 PM | PERMALINK

When I write a check to a charity I always ask myself how much of the money is going to go to doing some good. I don't want it to just fatten someone's bottom line or bloat some organization's administration. If I were sitting in Paris or Berlin thinking of writing a check for Iraq I would be thinking the same thing. Even if there's independent control of the donated funds, what does that mean? That you get to have your choice of subsidizing Halliburton, Bechtel, or the Pentagon?

Another thing, read Kevin's prior posts on this subject. Until Bremer became abjectly desperate for money and bodies he described US policy as "principled opposition to the international community being in charge." Considering that a primary modus operandi of the Bush administration is to say one thing and do another, why would anyone in their right mind put their money into Iraq even if they were promised a modicum of control?

Posted by: Joe Bob at October 24, 2003 02:55 PM | PERMALINK

If I may play devil's advocate here for a moment, Al:

Is it in these countries' national interests to give their citizen's hard earned money (that they "confiscated" via taxes, of course) to make the U.S.-led adventure in Iraq look good? Would it be in our interests to use American taxpayers' money to, say, fix a major Chirac blunder in Africa so that he could get re-elected?

We went into Iraq in an attempt to serve our own national interests (and the neocon argument was that we were perfectly correct to do so). Why quibble when others attempt to serve theirs?

All of a sudden the right wing is all bleeding heart and massively in favor of "humanitarian" foreign aid now that THEIR boy has stepped in a pile of sh*t. This is exactly the nation building stuff they characterized as pure boondoggle only a few years ago.

These surreal outrages fly at us so thick and fast these days you can't concentrate long enough to do anything useful about any given one.

Hmm. Maybe that's the plan.

Posted by: Julia Grey at October 24, 2003 03:06 PM | PERMALINK

This whole argument that X country is evil if it doesn't pony up Y dollars to reconstruct Iraq is sullivanism at its worst. There are a whole lot of poor countries in the world, many of them in far worse shape than Iraq. But because the United States declares that reconstructing Iraq is the great cause of our age, nations that opposed the war (and which in the case of France and Germany spend a lot more on foreign aid than we do already) in the first place are supposed to come running to pony up their taxpayers' dollars into the kitty? Why is Iraq so much more important a receptacle for French and German dollars than, say, Democratic Congo with its 3 million dead?

Posted by: Zack at October 24, 2003 03:12 PM | PERMALINK

Al,
Australia has pulled all its troops and they consider their dues paid. They're tied up being Bush's deputy sheriff in southeast Asia and the southwestern Pacific. Committing 1,500 troops for a couple hundred days has paid off well for Howard or so he thinks. He's got himself promises of free trade with America. Supposedly Bush has promised that quotas protecting California fruit, Florida and Louisiana sugar, Iowa and North Carolina hogs, Colorado lambs, and wheat from the Dakotas through the midwest and prairie states to the intermountain west are going to eliminated or reduced for our good mates. And all of that in an election year.

Posted by: fastback at October 24, 2003 03:16 PM | PERMALINK

They did not want to wage the war because Iraqis would be killed and wounded, and now they refuse to give the aid necessary to keep Iraqis safe and healthy.

They did not want to wage the war because they knew doing so was a stupid thing to do, and now they refuse to give this boondoggle any money because there is no way it will be used to "keep Iraqis safe and healthy." We all know it will be used to keep Halliburton and its subsidiaries "safe and healthy", at least when its not being siphoned off into Chalabi's Swiss bank account.

When Bush and his cabal are in the dock at The Hague -- then's the time to come to the aid of Iraq.

Posted by: Basharov at October 24, 2003 03:34 PM | PERMALINK

Jon: Germany and France refusing to pledge aid might be more to discourage the US from doing this in the future (Iran, Syria) than a petty snub with humanitarian costs for Iraqis. The Europeans might figure that the US won't fail to fund the rebuilding effort, even if they have to do it alone, so contributions by France and Germany would just transfer the obligation from us to them.

Especially if they witnessed the apparent fall in the popularity (for the prez and the war) when the check came - the $87 billion (which leaves out the $150 billion already spent, btw). Democratic pressure, via US taxpayers' wallets, might curb the war planners ambitions.

I don't know what their motivation was though, obviously.

Posted by: andrew at October 24, 2003 03:35 PM | PERMALINK

The Euros would be making a gamble, with costs of potential Iraqi lives, to save future lives in other countries. Which, ironically, is what we did in this war:
I'll bet you 10,000 dead Iraqis that we can take out Saddam, fashion a democracy there, and more importantly, since Iraq itself was not a threat to us, set up a giant domino that sweeps through the middle east, toppling the dictators and monarchs that we previously supported and/or installed. This would make the world a safer place for us and everybody else, hopefully enough to wash the blood from our hands.

Posted by: andrew at October 24, 2003 03:42 PM | PERMALINK

The numbers that come out of this conference are and will remain highly suspect. Many of the 'loans' are going to be simply cancellations of loans already made to Iraq that the country had no likelihood of getting repaid anyway, and the $1.5 billion grant offered by Kuwait includes $1.0 billion they have already spent.

Most of the numbers that reach the newspapers will be money that the Iraqis never see. It is merely public relations smoke and mirrors so that the bush admininstration can conceal from the American Public how much we are on the hook to bail out their idiotic folly.

Check out Talking Points Memo http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2003_10_19.html#002117 and especially read the Washington Post article Josh links to.

Posted by: Rick B at October 24, 2003 03:50 PM | PERMALINK

This is all just a bunch of fuzzy math.

Posted by: Dubya at October 24, 2003 03:50 PM | PERMALINK

"You broke it, you bought it".

Plus for completeness Kevin you should tabulate the existing Hussein-era loans Iraq still owes.

Paris Club pdf .

(my comeback to the winger "but the Iraqis are better off now without Saddam!" is simply "but are we?" -- $100B is no small chunk of change -- it was a manned expedition to Mars, a Manhattan Project for alternate energy research, or 10 years worth of well-funded research from 10,000 scientists).

Posted by: Troy at October 24, 2003 03:59 PM | PERMALINK

I hardly see how this matters. Rupert nearly got voted off last night, and now the tribes are back to even! Drake has lost all momentum. John's out of there next.

Posted by: Stoffel at October 24, 2003 04:37 PM | PERMALINK

Troy: 'my comeback to the winger "but the Iraqis are better off now without Saddam!" is simply "but are we?" -- $100B is no small chunk of change '

These $100B had almost zero chance of being collected while Saddam is in power. Now - again zero.

Posted by: GB at October 24, 2003 05:20 PM | PERMALINK

? The $100B I was referring to is the FY03 & 04 supplemental military spending required to depose Saddam and maintain some semblance of order in the country.

Saddam only owed us $2B or so. Japan was on the hook for $4B. European countries were in for $1B - $3B each.

Iran-Iraq War allies of Saddam had of course loaned him tens of billions of dollars, plus another $90B in war reparations claims.

Posted by: Troy at October 24, 2003 05:37 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin

Your summary is less accurate than the reports you criticize. It is widely reported in media sources (including the LA Times article you mention) that the larger figures include the 20B$ US pledge. You could have at least mentioned that - and I have trouble believing you were unaware of it - for the sake of avoiding the sloppiness you claim to decry.

Posted by: Gabriel Gonzalez at October 24, 2003 05:49 PM | PERMALINK

Hey Gabe how 'bout laying off the personal attacks and more fully backing up your counter-claims, hmmm?

Posted by: Troy at October 24, 2003 06:22 PM | PERMALINK

Guys - If I understand what little information we get we are a long way from being able to spend most of the monies these countries are pledging. There are "security" caveats - So what they are doing now is meaningless, place holding, face saving BS.

We still have to spend whatever to keep our troops and admin folks there until we can quiet things down to the degree necessary to really begin to commit the big reconstruction money.

I think most of what we, the US, are spending now is to continue the "occupation". Doesn't count capital costs. Just to support the troops. Isn't that the $67B plus or minus that we're agreeing to anyway?

Now if we could get troop commitment, that would speed up providing security, which would facilitate putting the money to use- that would be the ideal. I think it's troops from other countries, not money per se (clearly troops cost money) which will make the real difference. And we don't want the only troops on the table. Turks.
I think this is a huge diplomatic failure.

This donor conference is just wallpaper.

But i'm just a grandmother. what do i know.

Posted by: Granmere at October 24, 2003 07:35 PM | PERMALINK

Well hell, you're not including the dollars forgiven for debts and reparations owed. When you figure in all the bad faith funny money, well, who knows how much we are really dealing with?

After all, this is not reality, ya know?

Posted by: SOB at October 24, 2003 07:54 PM | PERMALINK

Andrew: Germany and France refusing to pledge aid might be more to discourage the US from doing this in the future (Iran, Syria) than a petty snub with humanitarian costs for Iraqis.

Totally agree. Very possible. However, this is done, of course, at the expense of the Iraqi people's welfare, is it not? While it is wonderful to discourage the U.S. from this sort of foreign policy, witholding resources Iraq hurts Iraqis. However, I suppose that the only way for France and Germany to get their message across to the U.S. is to hit us in the pocketbook somehow and make us bear more of the cost.

Posted by: Jon at October 24, 2003 07:54 PM | PERMALINK

I also heard from an NPR story that Japan's $ was for Japanese contracts only. Just a little insight into how the game is played.

Posted by: Vivy at October 24, 2003 08:18 PM | PERMALINK

I just love how the argument is warped into "help the poor benighted Iraqis or you're bad people" argument.

Fuck the Iraqis. If they truly want democracy they can fight, and pay, for it just like anyone else. This position is consistent with libertarian Cato Institute papers, but not consistent with our military nation-building posture and pronouncements.

Posted by: Troy at October 24, 2003 08:18 PM | PERMALINK

Gabe, it sounds like the initial reports (on which the table was based) were confused about whether the US $20B was part of the total cited or not. It sounds to me like it's been clarified, and as the picture gets clearer still, most of the "real" contributions are piddling or with significant strings attached, or from the US or US-controlled organizations (IMF, etc).

So don't blame Kevin for trying to make sense of early incomplete reporting. He did point out the inconsistency.

As for the "libertarian" plan: what the hell are we doing putting an entire country on welfare? Iraq is already a libertarian paradise (no taxes, no regulations, lots of powerful guns freely available, and drugs are on the way from Afganistan by now, I'm sure) a bunch of governmental meddling will just ruin the place! Why, don't you think a lot of libertarians, objectivists, and hard-right republicans should move there to enjoy the paradise? Now that Rush is off the air, there's no reason to stay here in the US, is there?


Posted by: Satan luvvs Repugs at October 24, 2003 09:10 PM | PERMALINK

A few more to add to the list:

Saudi Arabia — $1 billion in loans through 2007 and export credits; also willing to consider forgiving some of $24 billion in Iraqi debt owed to it.

United Kingdom - $900 million by 2006.

European Union — $812 million for 2004, $1.5 billion through 2007.

Iran - credit facility of up to $300 million, offered cross-border electricity and gas supplies and said it would allow Iraq to export oil through Iranian terminals.

Italy - $232 million over three years — in addition to the 3,000 troops it has stationed in Iraq.

Canada — $230 million, most already spent.

South Korea (news - web sites) — $200 million over four years in addition to $60 million committed this year.

Norway — $34 million for transitional and development aid.

India — $30 million for 2004.

China — $24.2 million.

Switzerland — $15 million.

Oman — $3 million.

Philippines — $1 million.

Sri Lanka — nearly $1 million in goods, including 100 tons of tea.

Vietnam - $500,000 worth of rice.

Slovakia — $290,000.

Bulgaria - $0 plus technical assistance.

Egypt - $0 plus technical assistance.

Germany - $0

France - $0

Russia - $0

Spain - ?

Australia - ?

India - ?

Turkey - ?

Israel - ?

Brazil - ?

South Africa - ?

Argentina - ?

Lybia - ?

Indonesia - ?

Mexico - ?

Venezula - ?

Columbia - ?

Posted by: ascap_scab at October 24, 2003 09:26 PM | PERMALINK

scab, most nations on this planet are net recipients of economic aid -- it makes little sense for them to turn around and donate what they're being given, other than for appearances, of course.

Mexico and the Phillipines receive ~1B/yr in aid each, Indonesia a lot more.

What the Iraqis owe:

Austria: $800M
France: $3B
Germany: $2.4B
Italy: $1.7B
Japan: $4.1B
Russia: $3.45B
UK: $900M
US: $2.2B

I can understand why "old europe" is less than enthused about ponying up the cash when their existing claims are in extreme limbo, if not the toilet.

Posted by: Troy at October 24, 2003 11:47 PM | PERMALINK

European voters were so against this war that it would probably bring down their governments if France or Germany made large donor pledges.

Posted by: Carol (in NJ) at October 25, 2003 05:53 AM | PERMALINK

Troy-

No living American has had to fight for his freedom. Our ancestors did that for us 200 years ago. Don't you think you're being a little harsh?

Posted by: Joe Schmoe at October 25, 2003 08:30 AM | PERMALINK

"Fuck the Iraqis."

Oh, those caring, compassionate liberals.

Posted by: Al at October 25, 2003 09:09 AM | PERMALINK

Nobody mentions that Iran has promised a steady stream of tourists to visit Iraq. So it's great that Sri Lanka is providing tea.

The mistake Shrub made with his Iraqithon 2003 was scheduling it during National Public Radio pledge week....

-------------

Two, more "serious", thoughts:

#1. In 1979, Neal Israel ("Police Academy") made a bizarre film called "Americathon" in which our President hosts a telethon to prevent the US from foreclosure. The film was absurb in so many ways--that the US would be a debtor nation, that the problem of national debt would be so trivialized, that average citizens and foreigners would be expected to bail out the nation's finances.... Yet art (sic) seems to have become life: The US tanks financially, and our leaders can only think to hold an international beg-in to bail themselves out of a policy blunder. Tsk, tsk.

#2. Whatever happened to Afghanistan? to AIDS in Africa? to Chinese human rights? to the North Korean people who must endure an unhuman regime? to the subsistence farmers in Columbia, Peru, and Bolivia? It must be, like the banker on "Beverly Hillbillies", that the US only cares about "black gold, Texas tea...."

Posted by: infoshaman at October 25, 2003 10:08 AM | PERMALINK

Anyone notice that Japan was the only country who made any significant contribution?

I think that's because the Japanese understand how Bush is infatuated with the power of the US President. They understand "tsujigiri" --defined as "the act of trying out a new sword on chance passerby".

The Japanese also understand that sometimes the easiest way to maintain "Wa" (harmony) is to buy
off the local gangster (Yakuza).

Posted by: Don Williams at October 25, 2003 10:49 AM | PERMALINK

AIDS in Africa??? Duh. Well, fortunately President Clinton and Bill Gates are doing as much as they can there. As for us, we are ever so anxious to spend and spend and spend in Iraq. So far the war has cost us a mere 81 billion dollars and more than 2,000 American and British soldiers wounded and killed.

Posted by: Ari at October 25, 2003 10:49 AM | PERMALINK

You broke it, you pay and if you don't you will be charged criminally.

Posted by: Europe at October 25, 2003 11:12 AM | PERMALINK

No living American has had to fight for his freedom.

Come again? WTF was WW2 then?

Our ancestors did that for us 200 years ago. Don't you think you're being a little harsh?

No. I consider us liberating 10,000+ Iraqis from their lives a little harsh.

Posted by: Troy at October 25, 2003 11:33 AM | PERMALINK

"I consider us liberating 10,000+ Iraqis from their lives a little harsh."

I consider us liberating 10,000+ Iraqis who would have been killed by Saddam if we hadn't invaded not harsh. But of course the lefties don't now (and never did) care about Iraqis anyway... as witnessed by the wonderful leftie quote above "fuck the Iraqis".

Posted by: Al at October 25, 2003 04:44 PM | PERMALINK

Maybe the pledges were weak because we didn't offer coffee mugs and logo umbrellas. Donors just love tote bags.

Posted by: Kip W at October 25, 2003 04:46 PM | PERMALINK

I consider us liberating 10,000+ Iraqis who would have been killed by Saddam if we hadn't invaded not harsh.

One of the human rights organizations estimated that SH was killing a few hundred people a year. The average for his time as dictator was much greater, but most of his victims died in the two wars and putting down the Shiite rebellion after Wulf War I. IOW, the civilian deaths due to the invasion were something like the number he might have killed in 10-20 years.

Posted by: Roger Bigod at October 25, 2003 05:10 PM | PERMALINK

One of the people I know estimated that the number of Iraqi civilians killed in the war was something like a few hundred. So, Roger, the comparison between your asinine # and mine stands.

Posted by: Al at October 25, 2003 05:53 PM | PERMALINK

Al, don't be so harsh on the "lefties." Not all of us have lost our idealism and become isolationist hermits like Troy, here. The reconstruction of Iraq is my primary concern, as a "lefty," so to speak. In my opinion, those on the left (with me, I remind you) who want to "fuck the Iraqis" and cut and run are simply bidding for the political upper hand by playing off of a struggling reconstruction effort. Realistically, however, we have to do the job. I think you and I can agree on that, Al.

Posted by: Jon at October 25, 2003 06:43 PM | PERMALINK

I'm arguing in generalities, not current conditions here.

I believe we had no moral, legal, or rational in justification throwing 100,000+ combat troops into a sovereign nation on a nation-building exercise like we have done. I believe the neocon "but think of the Iraqis!" is just a bullshit smokescreen -- my response is simply "think of *US*, dipwad!". $100B flushed down the toilet, thousands of US casualties, wear and tear on frontline combat divisions, diversion from the real WOT, tens of thousands of Iraqi dead, crippled, de-housed, and orpaned -- and for what? Liberation? Liberation is something any populace can achieve, if they want it badly enough -- cf. Eastern Europe.

There was no present threat. The government of Iraq is of Iraqi concern, not ours, and it is pure hubris to forcibly attempt to liberate at gunpoint, just like it was hubris to attempt to maintain the status quo in SVN in the face of massive RVN malfeasance, incompetence, and illegitimacy.

Interventions **can** be moral -- like eg. swooping down on Hitler when he re-militarized the Rhineland (which the western powers failed to do), or our rather noble sacrifice in keeping the stalinist north koreans from over-running the entire Korean Peninsula.

Iraq was a bone-headed gambit in a silly & costly crusade of a campaign. Whether it succeeds or not, it will not be worth the costs incurred.

Posted by: Troy at October 25, 2003 08:43 PM | PERMALINK

One of the people I know estimated that the number of Iraqi civilians killed in the war was something like a few hundred. So, Roger, the comparison between your asinine # and mine stands.

It depends on which source to believe. I've seen figures as high as 20,000 for total Iraqi deaths, but I don't recall one for civilians. There are no official US estimates, unlike previous wars, so it depends on which source to believe. I note that the government and right-wing sources have a pathetic history of dishonesty on any numerical prediction or estimate regarding this war, so a reasonable person wou erject their figures.

Posted by: Roger Bigod at October 26, 2003 04:12 AM | PERMALINK

Liberation is something any populace can achieve, if they want it badly enough -- cf. Eastern Europe.

They wanted liberation badly for decades, but it took the USSR falling apart for them to achieve it. I think we have to grant the neocons the point that SH's grip on Iraq was too strong for an internal revolt to work, even one with strong covert backing.

In the Cold War, we had universal agreement by all leaders of the Free world on the strategy of containment.. In particular we agreed on the basis in general Enlightenment values of personal liberty and open, representative political systems. the problem with the Iraq invasion is that it represents the beginning of the neo-con program, and this isn't an Enlightenment project. The goal is nightmarish.


Posted by: Roger Bigod at October 26, 2003 04:26 AM | PERMALINK

think we have to grant the neocons the point that SH's grip on Iraq was too strong for an internal revolt to work, even one with strong covert backing.

I grant nothing. We forget that the US Reagan-Bush administration was publically against the Israeli airstrike on Iraq's french-built reactor, we blocked UN attempts to censure Iraq for its use of chemical weapons, etc.

Is this real ?

Now these same con-artists come back that oh Saddam bad, we have to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to liberate the poor Iraqis.

The neocon crew could not put together a coalition for peaceful change, but only because their fingerprints were all over the support Saddam received, 1979 - 1990.

Posted by: Troy at October 26, 2003 08:20 AM | PERMALINK

Jon - When I use the general term "lefties", I don't mean to imply every single left-winger in the entire country. There are certainly some honorable liberals remaining. You just don't usually find them commenting on these threads...

Posted by: Al at October 26, 2003 06:56 PM | PERMALINK

"I note that the government and right-wing sources have a pathetic history of dishonesty on any numerical prediction or estimate regarding this war, so a reasonable person wou erject their figures."

I would far sooner believe numerical estimates from the government or a right-winger than from a left-winger. I mean, remember the asinine estimate of some left-wing New Hampshire of Afghan civilian deaths, which was proven to be completely detached from reality?

Posted by: Al at October 26, 2003 06:58 PM | PERMALINK

I had read the latest survey in Iraq:
- 30% of Iraqis want a occidental-type democracy
- 70% of Iraqis see the american troops as occupiers, and if they don't know how to bend this problem within 3 months only 7.5% of Iraqis will see the troops as liberators.
Also France and Germany did give you out the name of the hijackers 2 years before 9/11, we never received any feedbacks from the CIA dpt.
What happened?

Posted by: frenchy at October 26, 2003 06:59 PM | PERMALINK

I would far sooner believe numerical estimates from the government or a right-winger than from a left-winger.

The anti-war overestimated the cost of the war in deaths on both sides. This seems to be due to the Iraqi not putting up a fight. OTOH, the neocons underestimated the cost of the occupation in money and lives. The internal estimate was that we would be down to 30 K troops at this point. One does not think of Gen. Shalikashvili, as a left-winger, but he was all but publicly stripped of rank for the reasonable suggestion that hundreds of thousands of troops for several years was a realistic requirement. This was a reasonable estimate, based on comparison with the Balkans. We were also assured that Iraq would pay for its own reconstruction out of oil revenues, "and soon". Again, there was plenty of baseline data that suggested otherwise.

Another example of spurious numbers is the precise quantitative numbers of tons of nerve gas, etc. that Iraq was supposed to possess. The precise figures were for propaganda purposes, to give an impression that the figures had been checked and audited. or the claim that SH could launch them in 45 minutes. Not 40. Not 50. Exactly 45. Givemeabreak.

Posted by: Roger Bigod at October 27, 2003 12:24 AM | PERMALINK

A trippa di zianata - "your aunt's tripe"

Posted by: gay porn fan at April 9, 2004 12:37 AM | PERMALINK

online casinos | casino bonus | casino directory | high roller casinos | casinos

Posted by: doi at May 23, 2004 08:16 AM | PERMALINK

Buy www.i-directv.net this it is a wonderful addition to anyones home entertainment system.

Posted by: directv at May 27, 2004 11:15 PM | PERMALINK

Find your www.ALL-FIORICET.COM here, 100% discrete!

Posted by: fioricet at June 14, 2004 02:49 PM | PERMALINK

go to WWW.E-CREDIT-CARD-DEBT.COM for great deals!

Posted by: credit card debt at June 15, 2004 09:38 AM | PERMALINK

Now you can Play Poker online any time!

Posted by: online poker at June 25, 2004 09:32 AM | PERMALINK

Now you can Play Poker online any time!

Posted by: Play Poker Online at June 25, 2004 10:49 AM | PERMALINK

We provide valuable data and information pertaining to the Libyan membership will enlighten you with specific and detailed information about Libyan market from the first click.

Posted by: Libyan Investment at June 28, 2004 05:44 AM | PERMALINK

you can play blackjack here! http://www.blackjack.greatnow.com

Posted by: blackjack at July 21, 2004 06:45 PM | PERMALINK

you can play blackjack online here!
http://www.blackjack.greatnow.com

online casino

If you've ever been curious about how to play online poker then you'll want to read over the following online poker guide. This guide you should be in a god position to play poker.

Posted by: online casino at July 26, 2004 07:54 PM | PERMALINK


real estate investing tips real estate investing canada environmental investing benchmark investing investing emerging markets student investing biotechnology investing value line investing real estate investing clubs tips for investing investing overseas investing bank trust deed investing vulture investing investing rules commodities investing savings and investing investing japan tips investing scotiamcleod direct investing city investing investing new zealand investing classes warren buffet investing investing definitions investing cash real estate investing club investing faq currency investing folio investing vision investing distressed debt investing investing abroad investing services hedge fund investing stock option investing market neutral investing investing uk naic investing investing tax liens bank investing wine investing investing schwab investing systems beginner investing commodity investing investing property futures investing investing the future safe investing investing firms investing oil schwab investing four pillars investing social responsible investing dividend investing investing innovation investing art investing forum venture investing investing courses private equity investing investing health murphy technology investing investing options small cap investing investing uk share investing investing websites investing realestate vanguard investing venture capital investing passive investing reit investing investing russia investing rental property institutional investing kids investing women and investing expectations investing style investing business investing home investing investing clubs investing game investing for retirement global investing options investing stocks investing growth investing green investing investing strategy investing books start investing investing mutual funds short term investing tax lien investing financial investing income investing investing stock investing canada angel investing personal investing investing for beginners investing china mutual fund investing drip investing stock market investing investing 101 gold investing offshore investing realestate investing investing online investing for dummies investing bonds investing money stock investing better investing socially responsible investing responsible investing real estate investing coca cola stock nigerian stock exchange live stock quotes online stock broker non qualified stock k mart stock helsinki stock exchange stock market open vegetable stock stock lots stock tank stock holders free real time stock quotes stock trading software swing stock stock buying stock technical analysis stock crash stock holding corporation stock loss korea stock exchange stock talk inertia stock real time stock quote german stock exchange stock photos free stock footage incentive stock options united airlines stock lock stock and barrel stock exchnage lucent stock technology stock medical stock download stock trade stock about stock google stock stock recommendations mumbai stock exchange stock exchange india stock control software lock stock & ebay stock e stock cox stock stock exchange thailand stock listing history the stock market nz stock pj stock check stock denver stock show stock chat stock plan stock today otc stock meta stock stock transfer form at&t stock stock market canadian stock market stock broking stock technical kuala lumpur stock shanghai stock exchange paris stock exchange stock lot stock horse digital stock employee stock option bankrupt stock luxembourg stock home depot stock hot stock china stock stock values stock exchange quotes stock market analysis san antonio stock show amsterdam stock exchange microsoft stock split johannesburg stock exchange virtual stock market stock monitor stock market data stock buy stock photography johannesburg stock stock analyst free stock market street stock stockholm stock selling stock on line stock fantasy stock market stock yards stock software stock tracking realtime stock canadian stock exchange stock sale stock center stock stock brokerage gestion stock com stock stock com wood stock australia stock stock online stock trader stock house stock qoutes german stock stock investing bar stock swiss stock nortel stock free stock photo employee stock options us stock market rifle stock super stock vancouver stock exchange walmart stock treasury stock stock tickers internet stock film stock tracking stock stock market news airlines stock new zealand stock exchange daily stock zealand stock exchange stock company international stock indian stock market stock quotes stock number disney stock stock investment stock video fantasy stock free stock quotes 1929 stock stock market prices national western stock show national western stock stock valuation the stock market crash old stock pro stock irish stock exchange stock watch tokyo stock stock trade stock in real time stock quotes stock report royalty free stock stock information karachi stock exchange indian stock karachi stock national stock exchange stock market crash of stock purchase historical stock prices stock and two smoking barrels stock transfer stock market quotes card stock stock picks real time stock lock stock and two stock market game lock stock and stock brokers stock broker stock images stock split online stock preferred stock australian stock stock option stock market crash stock ticker stock trading stock options new york stock exchange stock quote stock price stock photography stock prices london stock exchange stock quotes ethical invest bulgaria invest rbj invest invest learning invest hedge vc invest new star invest invest master de invest germany helvetica invest ag invest norway invest morocco why invest real estate journal clinical invest casa invest socially responsible invest japan invest invest mart q invest euro invest bank adig welt invest av invest www invest ch plus invest tuxedo invest malmohus invest invest hungary invest ihs invest stock zb invest premium invest rev invest clin cash invest invest deutschland invest bond bfg invest merck finck invest invest oil boden invest invest financial corp invest finance home invest belgium db invest plan invest apm invest invest software invest smart game invest britain bureau teknia invest invest ireland swiss small cap invest absolute invest www invest dha gov au nationwide invest direct private equity invest invest partners groen invest nz invest biotech invest scand j clin lab invest invest serbia invest avenue invest trial bb invest de misc invest futures taurus invest for invest lebanon invest invest yourself invest kids foundation branwell growth invest k1 invest mennica invest seb invest aktienfonds invest shop welt invest invest wisely india invest stocks invest where should i invest self invest invest plus social invest save and invest ing invest eur j clin invest allianz invest canada invest private invest invest komfort helaba invest co invest value invest invest australia invest midwest invest stock market invest people invest france invest 2000 best way to invest money tech invest invest west zuerich invest de haus invest de alto invest online invest invest consulting invest company globe invest thomson invest cancer invest learning how to invest invest now invest club trade invest oeko invest life invest invest bavaria would you invest mellon invest vanguard invest coach invest invest spain china invest ways to invest money jyske invest invest stuttgart invest smart stock game how to invest your money equity invest invest quebec business invest invest capital invest game warteck invest good stocks to invest in invest sweden agency zurich invest bank invest to save budget what to invest in invest tech medi invest invest faq premie invest bayern invest money to invest invest gold invest germany best place to invest learn how to invest invest romania angel invest invest dha gov au people invest save invest star invest what to invest top invest invest china invest 2002 invest stock market time to invest nordea invest invest denmark invest stocks bank invest how to invest stock generali invest invest india gold invest how to invest invest bonds invest direct home invest sea invest invest better 2001 folha invest franken invest pro invest how to invest money invest financial how to invest stocks invest stock invest online zurich invest danske invest invest china zuerich invest san paolo invest uni invest global invest invest kids stocks to invest fidelity invest uk invest invest ni zurich invest union invest invest in atlas capital european venture capital maryland national capital human capital group capital georgia capital allocation capital morocco century capital capital preservation zurich capital markets strategic capital capital ghana capital group companies newbridge capital capital france arlington capital working capital definition capital norway capital mexico capital financing return invested capital capital radio uk capital solutions cdc capital capital consulting british venture capital hig capital platinum capital private capital management capital murder capital source harbor capital renaissance capital murder capital capital jazz raising capital capital realty mapa de capital capital sweden paid capital national venture capital capital reserve diario la capital de rosario capital business new capital barcelona capital capital cultural associates capital capital securities capital park capital humain capital pacific capital 95.8 european capital culture capital spending sao paulo capital states and capital capital home community capital capital ro hg capital capital ford capital london capital regional district capital christian research capital capital california venture capital malaga capital american capital strategies capital e atlantic capital golden gate capital benchmark capital basel capital buenos aires capital cvc capital partners united states capital ge capital cons cardco capital insurance pequot capital internet capital capital formation capital magazine capital venture capital plaza history capital punishment capital expo center kelowna capital news per capital net working capital la capital de rosario la capital rosario capital open capital india capital press capital theater capital choice intel capital boston capital return capital employed capital one capital rosario city capital costo de capital capital flows capital allowances moore capital capital high school o capital capital soccer capital fm london capital texas cultural capital states capital alliance capital management share capital capital community college capital classic cvc capital capital one credit cards capital one nib capital canada capital hotel capital greenwich capital annapolis capital capital cost xl capital fairbanks capital corp long term capital management texas capital capital india capital it working capital management weighted average cost capital capital one auto finance 95.8 capital capital radio london capital equipment international capital national capital marathon pacific capital allied capital private capital capital newspaper australian capital territory against capital punishment capital club capital territory carta capital venture capital firms capital australia capital culture capital funding capital finance capital asset pricing the capital city bain capital capital llc capital hotel el capital a capital capital times venture capital association www capital capital advisors barclays capital capital fund capital humano capital one visa long term capital madrid capital capital gold fairbanks capital capital social ge capital bank capital structure capital district en capital alliance capital cost capital coast capital capital market capital area social capital capital cities what is the capital of state capital what is the capital working capital la capital capital gains tax capital federal capital city capital of capital one factoring brokers portrait brokers nyc real estate brokers insurance brokers india electronic brokers used car brokers new york mortgage brokers florida brokers brokers title object request brokers car insurance brokers uk business brokers colorado adirondack auto brokers illinois association mortgage brokers olde discount brokers mortgage brokers london knowledge brokers candy brokers denver ticket brokers commercial finance brokers milwaukee ticket brokers business insurance brokers tunnel brokers texas association mortgage brokers tanker brokers north american motorcycle brokers australian stock brokers real estate brokers new york city busines brokers midwest computer brokers reo brokers alberta mortgage brokers travel insurance brokers home loan brokers georgia mortgage brokers australian mortgage brokers hay brokers capital brokers general insurance brokers willis insurance brokers bc yacht brokers var property brokers ontario insurance brokers institute insurance brokers canadian stock brokers company brokers flower brokers ib brokers mortgage brokers re max eastside brokers california real estate brokers license plant brokers ontario mortgage brokers american brokers conduit paper brokers national association ticket brokers mortgage brokers act electronic component brokers arizona business brokers mortgage brokers ontario transworld business brokers timeshare brokers brokers world wide isal united insurance brokers registered insurance brokers ontario brokers reports business brokers sydney transport brokers medical insurance brokers tea brokers national business brokers valley brokers international business brokers association brokers report united california brokers associated brokers pullman produce brokers business brokers houston new car brokers martin brokers message brokers international yacht brokers us brokers pc brokers national customs brokers cargo brokers council insurance agents and brokers real estate brokers orlando lease brokers vermont business brokers canadian brokers franchise brokers new york city real estate brokers insurance brokers london online mortgage brokers export brokers trade brokers canadian discount brokers independent insurance brokers insurance brokers ireland training brokers metro brokers gmac business brokers florida uk mortgage brokers us customs brokers resort brokers introducing brokers insurance brokers ontario florida real estate brokers real estate brokers new york heath insurance brokers uk brokers leasing brokers irish brokers mortgage brokers canada tickets brokers currency brokers 3 day suit brokers yacht brokers uk mail list brokers retail brokers brokers nyc airline ticket brokers insurance brokers toronto ticket brokers city brokers buisness brokers commercial insurance brokers discount futures brokers e brokers brokers london shipping brokers yacht brokers association music brokers note brokers american brokers brokers list marriage brokers load brokers metro brokers colorado commercial mortgage brokers on line stock brokers transportation brokers art brokers house brokers option brokers email list brokers oil brokers automobile brokers metro brokers denver california brokers international brokers business brokers association money brokers house brokers sunbelt brokers forex brokers auto insurance brokers options brokers ranch brokers mortgage brokers uk trading brokers euro brokers mailing list brokers commodities brokers brokers realty restaurant brokers financial brokers brokers london vr business brokers equipment brokers national association mortgage brokers insurance brokers uk land brokers truck brokers health insurance brokers brokers international brokers new york insurance brokers association on line brokers hotel brokers diamond brokers loan brokers car insurance brokers mortgage brokers association property brokers futures brokers brokers australia association mortgage brokers car brokers sunbelt business brokers brokers association interactive brokers online brokers yacht brokers stock brokers mortgage brokers pension obligation bonds post office bonds samurai bonds saveings bonds i bonds us stripped bonds national savings income bonds high income bonds national saving bonds cash bonds bonds investments www bonds com au zero coupon municipal bonds savings bonds mature bonds funds high yield corporate bonds us savings bonds gov bonds factory government ee bonds lost us savings bonds surley bonds earth savings bonds rate saving bonds value defaulted bonds mortgage backed bonds usa savings bonds barry bonds wallpaper pricing bonds patty bonds ee government bonds u s savings bonds eee bonds stocks bonds bills and inflation corporate bonds selling bonds islamic bonds bonds corporate sam bonds nexus bonds goverment savings bonds issuing bonds us savings bonds rates buy corporate bonds bonds info trade bonds atomic bonds daisy bonds fixed income

Posted by: trasher at July 27, 2004 02:38 PM | PERMALINK

online casino

If you've ever been curious about how to play online poker then you'll want to read over the following. We suggest you try an online casino that offers free play in order to practice a bit before placing any real wagers. You can also play blackjack online fo free!

Posted by: online casino at July 30, 2004 07:07 PM | PERMALINK

http://www.spermavirtualvoyeurism.com/nude-jason-scott-lee.html nude jason scott lee html http://www.spermavirtualvoyeurism.com/nude-hewitt-martin.html nude hewitt martin html http://www.spermavirtualvoyeurism.com/don-nude.html don nude html http://www.spermavirtualvoyeurism.com/nude-neil-patrick-harris.html nude neil patrick harris html http://www.spermavirtualvoyeurism.com/nude-andrew-tirman.html nude andrew tirman html http://www.spermavirtualvoyeurism.com/boyan-nude-milusev.html boyan nude milusev html http://www.spermavirtualvoyeurism.com/barbiesboobs-gal3-ssa07.html barbiesboobs gal3 ssa07 html http://www.spermavirtualvoyeurism.com/alan-howard-nude.html alan howard nude html http://www.spermavirtualvoyeurism.com/andrew-nude-mccarthy.html andrew nude mccarthy html http://www.spermavirtualvoyeurism.com/private-porn-picture-and-free-gay-pix.html private porn picture and free gay pix html http://www.spermavirtualvoyeurism.com/tim-daly-nude.html tim daly nude html http://www.spermavirtualvoyeurism.com/movie-celebrities-harvey-keitel-male-celebrity-star.html movie celebrities harvey keitel male celebrity star html http://www.spermavirtualvoyeurism.com/ben-murphy-nude.html ben murphy nude html http://www.spermavirtualvoyeurism.com/davis-nude-brad.html davis nude brad html http://www.spermavirtualvoyeurism.com/fatmir-nude-haskaj.html fatmir nude haskaj html http://www.spermavirtualvoyeurism.com/gal3-gal31.html gal3 gal31 html

Posted by: Bizarre Sex Pictures at August 4, 2004 10:46 AM | PERMALINK

1890 You can buy viagra from this site :http://www.ed.greatnow.com

Posted by: Viagra at August 7, 2004 08:53 PM | PERMALINK

2904 Why is Texas holdem so darn popular all the sudden?

http://www.texas-holdem.greatnow.com

Posted by: texas holdem at August 9, 2004 02:08 PM | PERMALINK

You have a great looking SITE!
I liked very much your web site.

Posted by: annika at August 10, 2004 02:02 AM | PERMALINK

ok

Posted by: penis enlargement at August 10, 2004 07:51 AM | PERMALINK

7678 get cialis online from this site http://www.cialis.owns1.com

Posted by: cialis at August 10, 2004 09:35 AM | PERMALINK

5631 ok you can play online poker at this address : http://www.play-online-poker.greatnow.com

Posted by: online poker at August 10, 2004 09:48 PM | PERMALINK

Found some great outdoor equipment at: http://www.campfireoutfitters.com/, http://www.bike-gear.net

Posted by: Frank Green at August 10, 2004 09:51 PM | PERMALINK

Hello it a very interesting site!
Thanks for the good material!

Posted by: joen at August 11, 2004 01:22 AM | PERMALINK

4894 Keep it up! Try Viagra once and youll see. http://viagra.levitra-i.com

Posted by: Viagra at August 14, 2004 03:51 AM | PERMALINK

4754 Get your online poker fix at http://www.onlinepoker-dot.com

Posted by: online poker at August 15, 2004 08:32 PM | PERMALINK

Excellent site. Keep up the good work. http://www.888-online-casino.biz http://www.888-online-poker.biz http://www.888-online-gambling.biz http://www.888-on-net.biz
http://www.mapau-online.biz http://www.c-online-casino.co.uk http://www.cd-online-casino.co.uk
http://www.buy-v-online.biz

Posted by: online casino at August 16, 2004 09:42 AM | PERMALINK

1095 black jack is hot hot hot! get your blackjack at http://www.blackjack-dot.com

Posted by: play blackjack at August 17, 2004 02:32 AM | PERMALINK

3678 so theres Krankenversicherung and then there is
Krankenversicherung private and dont forget
Krankenversicherung gesetzlich
and then again there is always beer

Posted by: Krankenversicherung at August 17, 2004 05:52 PM | PERMALINK

296 Its great to experiance the awesome power of debt consolidation so hury and consolidate debt through http://www.debtconsolidation.greatnow.com pronto

Posted by: debt consolidation at August 18, 2004 08:57 PM | PERMALINK

8463

http://www.exoticdvds.co.uk for
Adult DVD And Adult DVDS And Adult videos Thanks and dont forget Check out the diecast model
cars
at http://www.diecastdot.com

Posted by: Adult DVD at August 19, 2004 02:43 PM | PERMALINK

My respect! Very interesting site - a good resource for everybody!

Posted by: jeanny at August 21, 2004 06:14 AM | PERMALINK

4084 check out the hot blackjack at http://www.blackjack-p.com here you can play blackjack online all you want! So everyone ~SMURKLE~

Posted by: blackjack at August 23, 2004 10:52 AM | PERMALINK

6242 Herie http://blaja.web-cialis.com is online for all your black jack needs. We also have your blackjack needs met as well ;-)

Posted by: blackjack at August 24, 2004 08:47 PM | PERMALINK

1311 check out http://texhold.levitra-i.com for texas hold em online action boodrow

Posted by: texas hold em at August 26, 2004 09:46 AM | PERMALINK
Navigation
Contribute to Calpundit



Advertising
Powered by
Movable Type 2.63

Site Meter