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October 06, 2003 WHO'S IN CHARGE TODAY?....As near as I can tell, our postwar Iraq timeline looks something like this:
So we've tried the Pentagon, we've tried the State Department, and now we're going to try the White House. What's next if that doesn't work? Posted by Kevin Drum at October 6, 2003 09:55 AM | TrackBackComments
Viceroy Schwarzenegger! Did you see him in Commando? Posted by: Atrios at October 6, 2003 10:05 AM | PERMALINKI'm recalling my previous guess and choosing the Ranch in Crawford. Posted by: LHP at October 6, 2003 10:07 AM | PERMALINK"if"? With Condi in charge thats definitely a "when". Posted by: Rob at October 6, 2003 10:09 AM | PERMALINKCynically, I think the best political tactic for the White House if this doesn't work is to bail out and then blame it on the Iraqi people. Something along the lines of: Look we tried to give those people what they needed, we honestly did our best, but they just weren't capable or appreciative enough to take advantage of this opportunity that we so generously handed them. Oh well, not our fault, we certainly did what we could do. Unfortunately, I'm afraid this could actually be a big political winner for the White House. I think a lot of Americans would be more than happy to adopt this viewpoint, it allows them to keep the warm, fuzzy feelings about out intentions, and gives us a convenient scapegoat for our failures. Americans are very fond of admitting an experiment is a failure as long as there's somebody else convenient to blame (witness Vietnam and the media or "politicians"). Fortunately, I do think the White House and their patrons are now getting far too tightly tied to Iraq economically to make this strategy ever palatable. And here we have irony, the one time this White House will eschew the easy political option. Posted by: Doug-E-Fresh at October 6, 2003 10:09 AM | PERMALINKThis link http://www.mahablog.com/ has the best explanation of what they are up to with this shift. E.g., "Anyone who's ever worked in an office hive (also known as a
"cube farm" in some parts) can see the classic symptoms of incompetent
upper management, so delightfully illustrated in "Dilbert." The overpaid
hothouse flowers at the top of the management heap have no clue how the
work of the company actually gets done; therefore, they have no clue
how to fix problems. But that doesn't stop them from trying. I don't think that State was ever in charge. Bremer may have been a State guy, but who did he report to? I never saw anything which said that he reported to Powell. Until the end, it'll remain Rumsfield, Wofowitz, Cheney, AEI and the rest of the neo-cons. At the end, it'll be whomever the administration can hand the problem off to, to take the blame. Posted by: Barry at October 6, 2003 10:10 AM | PERMALINKI should have read the entire article. Bremer was reporting to the Pentagon. This suggests that Garner was replaced merely for faiing. Which would be a first for this administration, except that his failure was a failure to make reality correspond to the LSD hallucinations of the neo-cons. Posted by: Barry at October 6, 2003 10:12 AM | PERMALINKFor months the public has been told that everything was going as planned in Iraq; in fact, better than as planned. The media just never reported all the great and wondrous things being accomplished in Iraq. The obvious fact is this WH has no idea what to do in Iraq. Thus, we're being treated to yet another round of Iraq Policy Musical Chairs. It looks as if this is just another Rove-type ploy to pretend activity--any activity--equals progress. The scary part about Rice being put in charge is twofold: first, she's demonstrated no particular talent for her own job at the NSC; second, what skills and talents does she bring to the table WRT Iraq? Posted by: JadeGold at October 6, 2003 10:14 AM | PERMALINKI don't think he's trying to make things better in Iraq and Afghanistan so much as he is trying to make the circle smaller. If all the control is in the WH, so is the information, such as it is. I think he (and his handlers) want total control over what goes out. Everything will have the WH spin and there will be no dissenting opinions and only the leaks they sanction. Either that or he grew a set. Posted by: chris at October 6, 2003 10:17 AM | PERMALINK"So we've tried the Pentagon, we've tried the State Department, and now we're going to try the White House. What's next if that doesn't work?" The blogosphere. If I were you, Kevin, I wouldn't pick up the phone for the next few days; if you're lucky, Prof. Reynolds will get stuck with it. Posted by: alkali at October 6, 2003 10:29 AM | PERMALINKGood one alkali :). Condi Rice has proven herself incompetent already. A National Security Advisor who apparently didn't read the NIE. That suggests laziness or incompetence. Or of course she could just be lying through her teeth. None of these options are comforting for the idea of her turning Iraq (and Afghanistan!) around. What they should do is put Jimmy Carter in charge. Carter would take the taint of the Bush admin from the Iraqis, and of course the Bushes would have someone to blame if things went wrong. Surprising they haven't thought of it themselves. The next Dem president could do this or even hand it over to Clinton. No way Bill would take this on before the election but perhaps afterwards. Posted by: Norman at October 6, 2003 10:39 AM | PERMALINKReanelle has it right. Unless, Condi is going to don a Battle Dress Uniform and do the day to day,on the street, it doesn't make one bit of difference who 'manages' the reconstruction. the fact is, this shel game will only make the Iraqi Governing Council more disaffected and pissed off. They were supposed to be the new leaders and now it's being pulled out of their hands and into the hands of people who have never been in a uniform. Chris also makes a great point. My guess is that Gen Abizaid is a disappoinbtment to them becasue he spoke the truth about what we are actually facing, despite Christopher Hitchens pipe dreams of 'most of what is going on is going well and no one is reporting it." In Vietnam, up until 1968, most of the countryside was quiet. Battles only occured along the DMZ, or deep in the Mekong Delta. This, my guess is likely to make things worse. And there are places left to pass the buck after the WH Posted by: Maccabee at October 6, 2003 10:39 AM | PERMALINKI suppose it ought to be the UN. But I have the discouraging feeling that it is too late for anyone to fix the mess in Iraq, though I think Afghanistan is still workable. Posted by: Emma Anne at October 6, 2003 10:45 AM | PERMALINKIf nominated, I will not run. If elected, I will not serve.... JH Posted by: Jimmy Hotep at October 6, 2003 10:49 AM | PERMALINKThe BBC had recently shown two good reports on its Panorama segment. One on Iraq and one on Guantanamo. You can see both the programs (approx 45 mins long and in Real Video format) if you click on the "Watch programme" link on the right-hand top corner of the respective pages. The transcripts too are available for Iraq and G'bay. If you can leave the partisan posturing for a while (both for and against), it gives a very honest picture of the time-bomb the world is sitting on in Iraq if they do not get things right very very soon. Posted by: codey at October 6, 2003 11:02 AM | PERMALINKbremer will still report to dumbsfeld. but condiLIESa will control the PR. Posted by: praktike at October 6, 2003 11:04 AM | PERMALINKEmma, the UN would be fools to do it. The administration will only hand over Iraq to the UN when the overall liabilities far outweigh the assets. Even then, they'll strip any remaining useful assets right before the hand-over. The end result would be a bunch of dead UN people, a failure blamed on the UN, and the right-wingers in the US cheerfully taking up the chant 'the UN lost Iraq'. As far as I can tell, the result of Bush's UN speech was some polite applause and nothing else, which was smart of everybody else. Posted by: Barry at October 6, 2003 11:06 AM | PERMALINKThe French. They owe us one. We fixed things for them in Viet Nam. The least they could do is take over Iraq. Posted by: LowLife at October 6, 2003 11:13 AM | PERMALINKCynically, I think the best political tactic for the White House if this doesn't work is to bail out and then blame it on the Iraqi people... Fortunately, I do think the White House and their patrons are now getting far too tightly tied to Iraq economically to make this strategy ever palatable. And here we have irony, the one time this White House will eschew the easy political option. They're also tied to it politically, Doug-E-Fresh. Remember that in Bush's speech on TV that first mentioned the $87 billion figure, he essentially said that the war on terrorism is now focused on what's happening in Iraq, and that anyone who opposes any aspect of his policy is a craven capitulator to terror. Since all the Dem candidates have criticized him for putting too little into post-war Iraq in terms of planning and funding, not too much, a Bush withdrawal might allow the Dems to hang Bush by his own rhetoric as being insufficiently committed to American security. Posted by: Haggai at October 6, 2003 11:13 AM | PERMALINK"Condoleezza Rice is put in overall charge of postwar planning in both Iraq and Afghanistan." "if that doesn't work"? I don't know what you're reading, but I see a lot working in favor of things improving greatly in Iraq. What is working all too well are the smear tactics to make people think things are awful there. Posted by: Chrees at October 6, 2003 11:17 AM | PERMALINKWhat should have been done from the first, and this is no guarantee
of success but it certainly helps, is that a military occupational
government be run by an accountable military governor with direct
command authority. General John Abizaid, now CENTCOM chief, was the
logical choice for the role being a Mideast scholar, an Arab-American
and a combat seasoned four star. Here's his bio: Obviously, a reprise of a MacArthur proconsulship rubbed somebody the wrong way and every bureaucracy had a hand in decisions in Iraq but no one had responsibility. Adding the UN will be another layer of obfuscation and red tape with a nation-building track record worse than our own. This is one area where the Bush team really screwed up and it's a large reason why they are having more problems in Iraq than they would otherwise. Posted by: mark safranski at October 6, 2003 11:18 AM | PERMALINK[conflating Calpundit posts] This never would have happened if Bud Selig was in charge. Posted by: squiddy at October 6, 2003 11:31 AM | PERMALINKDon't they always dump the tough stuff on Condi, on the theory that liberals will be a couple steps slower attacking her than a white guy? (And the second theory that if they're going to have to throw someone overboard, it might as well be someone they don't take very seriously). Posted by: Zizka at October 6, 2003 11:34 AM | PERMALINKChrees, have you tried adding a little evidence to your indignation? It's more filling! Posted by: John Isbell at October 6, 2003 11:46 AM | PERMALINKChrees, didn't you mean to say: "Look, Bill Clinton." So far that's 2 completely unsubstantive posts for you today. Shoot, you make Joe Schmoe look like a wonk. Posted by: Doug-E-Fresh at October 6, 2003 11:51 AM | PERMALINKThe overall objective of the Bush administration at this point does not concern Iraq, Afghanistan, terrorism in general, the economy, or tax cuts specifically, but to simply win re-election next fall. The solution or resolution of specific issues are important only in that context. Regarding Iraq, for example, the recent activity involving the UN is meant to present the illusion that we have a plan that will return control of the country to the Iraqis in roughly a year (which coincidentally is right before our next general elections). My guess is that, following this "plan" the Bush administration will show some "progress" by this time next year, and will have released preliminary schedules for removing our military personnel and transferring "authority" back to the people of Iraq. After the elections (assuming Bush is re-elected), there will be (surprise) some reason why the "plan" could not be implemented, and we all will be set-up for another four years of the current fiasco. Posted by: skeptic at October 6, 2003 12:08 PM | PERMALINKA rose by any other name would smell as sweet. And shit by any other name still stinks and messes up your shoes. George W. Bush is POTUS and is responsible for Iraq and Afghanistan. He is responsible for everything that occurs in his administration. The executive branch of the federal government is his responsibility. Fire the incompetent ideologically trapped moron before he manages to unite the entire world against us. George W. Bush, you are the President; you are responsible for everything your government does. Not Bill Clinton, not Joe Wilson, YOU. Try accepting some of that personal responsibility you were talking about using to restore some honor and integrity to the White House. Remember that, liar. You are actually increasing my respect for Clinton, who was a great president but terrible man. My respect for his personal integrity is going up as I see how you lie. And why are you harboring traitors? Posted by: Snow at October 6, 2003 12:28 PM | PERMALINKSkeptic: "the Bush administration will show some 'progress' by this time next year"
If they could just fit this whole Iraq debacle inside the space between Condi's front teeth . . . it would *almost* fit . . . . almost . . . Posted by: Commisar at October 6, 2003 01:02 PM | PERMALINKClearly you people didn't get the memo. Condi is a FABULOUS person. Fabulous. Posted by: qwerty at October 6, 2003 01:26 PM | PERMALINKRice is in charge because she's harder to diss than The comment about redrawing the cubicle lines is half of it. Here's the other half: by pulling it into the White House they can try to shield it from Congress and the public. Remember executive privilege? They've been pretty aggressive about that when it comes to other small stuff like energy policy. When the going gets tough for those 87 billion, the tough get going for executive privilege. Then it's "you're with us or the terrorists." Posted by: Altoid at October 6, 2003 01:56 PM | PERMALINKI wonder if they're trying to set up One Person to take the fall for everything that's wrong with this administration. The leak? Condi's fault. Iraq qWagmire? Condi's fault. The Codpiece in Chief runs out of Xanax? Condi's fault. She will be the one the NeoCons and AEI would throw overboard first, before Rove. Or Scooter Libby. Bet on it. Posted by: kelley b. at October 6, 2003 02:00 PM | PERMALINK"Condi is a FABULOUS person. Fabulous." From the Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary: Main Entry: fab·u·lous Let's not forget Condi has an oil tanker named after her. And let's take a step back from the political-rhetorical shell game of 'who's in charge'. 'Running the Country' is ancillary to the real purpose of the war, to switch reliance for oil from Saudi Arabia to Iraq. Who's in charge is a no-brainer: Dick Cheney and Paul Wolfowitz. Analogy: Do we really believe that an alcoholic, cocaine addicted frat boy from Yale is really 'in charge' of the U.S.? All hail the puppet. Posted by: Simon at October 6, 2003 02:21 PM | PERMALINK"and every bureaucracy had a hand in decisions in Iraq but no one had responsibility. " Last I heard, the Pentagon pretty much ran the show, shutting everybody out at will. As was mentioned in the article for this comments thread, even the 'State Department guy', Bremer, reported to the Pentagon. And even if every department in the executive branch had two weeks in charge, in some rotating clusterf*ck, who would be the one executive who had ultimate responsibility? Hint: his nickname is 'Dubya'. Posted by: Barry at October 6, 2003 03:49 PM | PERMALINKCondi is in charge because the neocons have been listening to Billy Kristol again: "Perhaps a serious talk with Messrs. Tenet, Powell, and Rumsfeld can do the trick, followed by strengthening the National Security Council's {that would be Condi} role in resolving intra-administration disputes." Posted by: flory at October 6, 2003 04:27 PM | PERMALINKHey guys what are you smoking out there in States? Iraq is sure success story - from start(brilliant military campaign) till now - fastest post-war reconstruction in entire world history - electricity is 96% of prewar level and so on not saying a word about difference between totalitarian dictatorship and liberal democracy - (guess none of you are able to appreciate that difference) I challenge you to give a single example of a country that will be brought back from war ruins in comparable time. I've spent some time on this Cal-forum and I still unable to understand your (liberal) mentality. Would you still heap your cheap scorn on Iraq reconstruction when you'll get your cherished president Clark, Dean, Mosley Brown running things there? Be sure they'll do almost exactly same stuff as now. Will you turn on a dime, or will you whine on consistently. Posted by: Russian at October 6, 2003 04:42 PM | PERMALINKRussian, Iraq following the first gulf war rebuilt its electric and water systems in less time. Of course, Haliburton was there then, too, just not with the unimited American taxpayer checkbook. Posted by: MacMan at October 6, 2003 05:15 PM | PERMALINKOf course, the "difference between totalitarian dictatorship and liberal democracy" will be a much more effective argument when (if) Iraq becomes a liberal democracy. Posted by: iago at October 6, 2003 05:31 PM | PERMALINKMy total wild-ass guess is it's either: 1) an effort to appear to be engaged, actively working to make things better. You know, P.R. 2) a strategy to keep things in better control, out of the State Department's domain. But, I have no idea how grounded in reality either scenario is. Oh, and I still have lingering fondness (relative) for Condi Rice. Even lately, when she's directly lying to our faces, she doesn't seem to have the same contempt for us as does, say, Cheney or Rumsfeld. She seems to just be doing her job, as flawed as it is - she's a cog in a fairly nasty machine, and so therefore has culpability, of course... Maybe it's just slightly more pleasant to be screwed by Condaleeza than Dick or Donald. Either she respects our intelligence a little bit more, or I am just being a guy, prefering my villians to be attractive females. Posted by: andrew at October 6, 2003 05:59 PM | PERMALINKWell, she squirms when she lies. I read that as a sign of conscience. The rest don't. I think what we really need now is a ROADMAP! Posted by: Royko at October 6, 2003 06:43 PM | PERMALINKOf course, Condi Rice has already proven herself to be incompetent, the worst NSA I can remember. Just sit back and watch her f**k up again. Posted by: Mark Neely at October 6, 2003 06:54 PM | PERMALINKRussian: You rock, dude!!! But I have to bum you out with this trip: If you quantify successful post war reconstruction in terms of the restoration of electric service, then the honor of the fastest post-war reconstruction in entire world history would have to go to the British following the Falkland Islands War of 1982--they had electric service back to 100% in less than 9 days. You rock, dude, but get a grip on the fundamentals of modern military history. Oh, and Russian, get this: I understand the difference between a totalitarian dictatorship and liberal democracy. In the former, citizens are taught think one thing. In the latter, they are taught to think nothing. See, I told you I knew. It's like we're soul mates, eh, buddy? As for what I plan on doing if we get a 'cherished' (great word useage, by the way, dude): I'll choose the second option--whine on consistently. After all, you've already given me some great ideas. Seriously, Russian, my man, I'm just goofin' on ya. You rock!! Keep on posting those sweet words of wisdom. Posted by: s at October 6, 2003 08:02 PM | PERMALINKIt probably hasn't mattered who is in charge. The changes were most likely cosmetic musical chairs to placate the critics of the pace of reconstruction, although it is progressing much faster than either Germany or Japan did. A smart political move but probably meaningless on the ground. Kind of like the feint at the UN. Nice. Posted by: paul at October 6, 2003 08:28 PM | PERMALINKViceroy Schwarzenegger! Did you see him in Commando? Remember when I said I preemptively invaded your country because of the imminent threat of weapons of mass destruction and direct ties to Osamma Bin Laden? I lied. Posted by: Not Ed Meese at October 6, 2003 10:28 PM | PERMALINKWhen I saw the picture of Bush and Rice in the Times I thought, she's going to be the VP candidate... Posted by: xian at October 6, 2003 10:56 PM | PERMALINKdoesnt rice already have a job? also, can anyone help me on this? as far as i know rice has an actual (as opposed to honorary)phd. what is it in? i heard it was in soviet politics or something. Posted by: paul at October 7, 2003 12:37 AM | PERMALINK...she doesn't seem to have the same contempt for us as does, say, Cheney or Rumsfeld. Are you f'in kiddin'?!! Whenever I see her on one of the Sunday morning propaganda gabfests, the condescension starts oozing out the edges of my TV screen. She makes no attempt whatsoever to disguise it. G-Duuuhb himself is the only one who can give her a run for the money as far as smug contempt goes. Posted by: Spade at October 7, 2003 01:18 AM | PERMALINKI think that Condi (coke head) Rice will Fuck Up the Iraq situation as much as the rest of the neo cons. Given the current situation, the only solution is total regeime change in this country. 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