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October 02, 2003

BUSTAMANTE OUT?....The California Political Review is reporting that Cruz Bustamante is under tremendous pressure to withdraw from the recall race. Apparently the thinking here is that there are a certain number of Democrats who are planning to vote for the recall as long as there's a Democrat on the ballot to replace Gray Davis, but they'll vote against the recall if there isn't. So if Bustamante is off the ballot, maybe there will be a 5-10% swing against the recall, and that will do the job.

Maybe. I guess it's worth a shot.

(Although Ezra Klein, who pointed me to this, thinks otherwise. He's afraid it could somehow lead to McClintock winning, which seems pretty unlikely to me. But then, I don't think Arnold is going to be seriously hurt by the groping charges.)

Posted by Kevin Drum at October 2, 2003 04:23 PM | TrackBack


Comments

That doesn't make any sense. I thought that you could vote against the recall, but still vote for Bustmante, so what difference does it make if he is there or not?

Posted by: Shelley of Westchester at October 2, 2003 04:25 PM | PERMALINK

"Apparently the thinking here is that there are a certain number of Democrats who are planning to vote for the recall as long as there's a Democrat on the ballot, but they'll vote against the recall if there isn't."

Posted by: nate at October 2, 2003 04:28 PM | PERMALINK

Because there are some Dems who are planning to vote *for* the recall and then vote for Bustamante. The thinking is that if Bustamante withdraws, they'll chicken out and vote against.

Posted by: Kevin Drum at October 2, 2003 04:28 PM | PERMALINK

I hope this is true. I think it's plausible, because I heard Cruz has held very few campaign rallies the past few days. Although, it could be because he's trying to scrape up enough money to pay back the Indian Casino donations.

-Indie

Posted by: Indie Pundit at October 2, 2003 04:32 PM | PERMALINK

Davis' original brinksmanship strategy vindicated? Or not. Don't care. A pox on everybody involved.

California, hurry up and declare bankruptcy, already.

Posted by: squiddy at October 2, 2003 04:34 PM | PERMALINK

This is crap.

They couldn't change the ballot now if they wanted to. Bustamante's name is already on all of those ballots and he is part of the race whether we like it or not.

Posted by: Adam in MA at October 2, 2003 04:41 PM | PERMALINK

ABC World News Tonight had story about Arnold admiring Hitler.

Here's the link and the conten (near bottom):

ABCNews WNT

‘I Admired Hitler’

Yet even as he tried to put out that fire, another broke out.

ABCNEWS obtained a copy of an unpublished book proposal with quotes from a verbatim transcript of an interview Schwarzenegger gave in 1975 while making the film Pumping Iron.

Asked who his heroes are, he answered, "I admired Hitler, for instance, because he came from being a little man with almost no formal education, up to power. I admire him for being such a good public speaker and for what he did with it."

He is quoted as saying he wished he could have an experience, "like Hitler in the Nuremberg stadium. And have all those people scream at you and just being total agreement whatever you say."

The author of the book proposal, Pumping Iron's director, George Butler, told ABCNEWS today that the quotes needed to be seen in context, and that Arnold never said anything anti-Semitic.

"I cannot remember any of these," Schwarzenegger told ABCNEWS. "All I can tell you is that I despise everything Hitler stood for. I despise everything the Nazis stood for, everything the Third Reich stood for."

In the final days of his campaign, Schwarzenegger may be battling yet another opponent: his own past.

Posted by: rdm at October 2, 2003 04:50 PM | PERMALINK

Because there are some Dems who are planning to vote *for* the recall and then vote for Bustamante. The thinking is that if Bustamante withdraws, they'll chicken out and vote against.

I understand that that's the thinking. What I don't understand is *why* that's the thinking.

Has this atrocity really been so poorly marketed that people don't comprehend that Cruz/Arnold/Tom/cast-of-thousands is entirely contingent? Do California voters not know that if recall gets less than 50% of the vote, then it doesn't matter whether Arnold gets 20% or 50% or 100% of the second vote?

Is there some defect in the intellectual prowess of Californians? Or have the media (and the political parties, and who knows who else) abrogated their responsibility to inform and educate the electorate?

Posted by: N in Seattle at October 2, 2003 04:53 PM | PERMALINK

Bustamante's supporters would more likely support Arnold. Bustamante barely pulls a majority over Arnold among second generation Mexican immigrants.

Posted by: Matt Young at October 2, 2003 04:55 PM | PERMALINK

The CPR story was yesterday and was predicting that he would drop out today. Hasn't happened. It wouldn't give McClintock enough, even with whatever tribal support would switch.

Posted by: Justene at October 2, 2003 04:55 PM | PERMALINK

This is just a panic reaction to the "polls" showing that Arnold is ahead. These polls are skewed by too many Arnold supporters being too dense to hang up on the polsters.

Posted by: pessimist at October 2, 2003 04:56 PM | PERMALINK

the problem is that Davis could get 49% of the vote and lose to Schwarzenegger getting 35%. it's not a normal election.

Posted by: wcw at October 2, 2003 04:57 PM | PERMALINK

Matt Young: "Bustamante barely pulls a majority over Arnold among second generation Mexican immigrants."

While true, that's still a ton of voters that would likely vote "no" on the recall if Bustamante is no longer a declared candidate. That could definitely tip the scales.

Posted by: Mike D at October 2, 2003 05:06 PM | PERMALINK

NPR reports that the state of CA is at least beginning to consider charges against Arnie for the sexual harrassment charges in LA Times. So he may go to the polls with a possible criminal investigation.

Posted by: emptywheel at October 2, 2003 05:30 PM | PERMALINK

Arnold in trouble for pro-Hitler statements? Did I peg this, or not? Back in August, I said:

I don't know why people say that Arnold's past will come back to haunt him. If Arnold just got up and said, in that Austrian accent of his: "Yes, I've made some mistakes in the past that I'm not proud of. In my youth, I was a neo-Nazi. When I first got started in bodybuilding, I made ends meet by starring in some gay porno movies (none are currently available on DVD, sorry). I was heavily into performance-enhancing drugs at one point. Later I committed some acts with women I was involved with that would have gotten me thrown in jail if I hadn't been so rich. Okay, I'm sorry for all that. Can we now focus on the future of California, instead of the past?"

If he had taken my advice, we wouldn't have had to go through all these last-minute revelations.

Posted by: Daryl McCullough at October 2, 2003 05:31 PM | PERMALINK

Gay porno? I don't remember seeing that in my LA Times.

If the Repugs succeed in amending the constitution so that Arnie can run for President (now that is historic power), will his VP be Sullivan?

Posted by: craigie at October 2, 2003 05:48 PM | PERMALINK

Duhnold Hitler Story:

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/wnt/Politics/arnold031002_past.html

Ouch.

Posted by: jdw at October 2, 2003 05:49 PM | PERMALINK

Ezra Klein didn't explain his point of view very well. I think the reason why Bustamante dropping out might lead to a McClintock victory is this:

If Bustamante is no longer in the race, Republicans have little reason to fear a Bustamante victory. A lot of them, maybe most of them, probably like McClintock better, and I'm sure a lot of the family-values Republicans will after this news cycle. So they'll have no incentive to vote for Arnold because they'll think that Bustamante can't win. So, in this scenario, McClintock might win narrowly over Schwarzenegger. It seems plausible.

The one problem with it is the question of where all the Bustamante voters go. If they go to Schwarzenegger, then McClintock loses. On the other hand, if they still vote for Bustamante, then the split Republican vote could lead to a Bustamante victory. But if some don't vote on the second part and the rest split their votes between various left candidates, and Davis loses, then McClintock could win.

Posted by: Mitch at October 2, 2003 06:09 PM | PERMALINK

craigie,

I was just trying to imagine the worst (or should I say, most embarassing) that could possibly come out about Arnold.

Posted by: Daryl McCullough at October 2, 2003 06:18 PM | PERMALINK

I think they should go for broke and drop Bustamante. It's worth the chance of Davis staying, which would be the best way of expressing the whole thing was an ill-conceived attempt.

The worst that could happen is that Arnold or McClintock could win, and you'd be back to a recall in a month or two. Heck, even Davis could run, and beat Arnold 33% to 48%, using that wild and crazy Kalifornia math.

Posted by: M. Aurelius at October 2, 2003 08:43 PM | PERMALINK

mitch makes excellent points. but you forgot the effect those scenarios would have on the first ballot[actual recall q].

i would assume that any bustamante voters voting no [badly want bustamante or a latino in office, rather than any democrat] would then switch to yes. but maybe bustamante supporters voting no would then give up and not turn out.

i believe the outcome depends heavily on voter turnout. calif labor unions have, esp in la, have gottern pretty good at that. maybe if a huge storm hits the central valley or o.c., will be saved.

but after 90 days the arnold recall can commence. get your pencils ready.

ps to n in seattle, i think you overestimate the intelligence of the american electorate at large.

Posted by: mister jingo at October 2, 2003 08:55 PM | PERMALINK

Bustamante pulling would mean essentially writing off all absentee ballots already cast. How many of those are there now? A million?

Posted by: ucblockhead at October 2, 2003 09:04 PM | PERMALINK

Wouldn't Bustamante pulling out greatly depress Latino turnout, thus harming Davis's chances? After all, Cruz's slogan has been "No on recall, yes on Bustamante".

Posted by: Jim in Chicago at October 2, 2003 09:28 PM | PERMALINK

Do you know what Schwartzenegger's 'apology' sounded like? First, it was aimed only at women. And, two, he was counting on the women who get beaten up, and always, black and blue, and even with broken bones, sigh and believe the jerk will change AND, THEN TAKE HIM BACK!

If Schwartzenegger becomes governor I think his nude Maplethorpes will be on tee-shirts. And, NOW is the time to start printing them!

Any site that will have these shirts up for sale for $20 a pop will clear $30,000 in a week's sales revenues. They'll fly off the shelves like the 'trading cards.' Think about it.

Posted by: Carol in California at October 2, 2003 09:48 PM | PERMALINK

This doesn't make any sense to me. The only hopeful indications that NO might win were when Bustamante was leading, and Issa was encouraging Republicans to vote NO. I think the only chance for a Davis victory is when there is an across-party-lines risk of a "worse" (for that party) governor. I think Davis' opponents are far more energized than Schwartzenegger's, so Bustamente dropping out would give it to Arnie.

Summary:
+ Increases NO percentage from dems (but slightly)
+ Increases fear in dems, maybe boosting turnout (doubtful)
- Decreases Latino turnout
- Reduces YES risk to repubs, eliminating any NO percentage from them

Posted by: Carl Manaster at October 2, 2003 11:23 PM | PERMALINK

Bustamante's supporters would more likely support Arnold. Bustamante barely pulls a majority over Arnold among second generation Mexican immigrants.

Source for this?

By the way, I think Arnold will drop out, and McClintock will win, and this has been plan B for the Hard Right since about a month ago. It's the only way Tom could ever win in California. And no, nobody bothered to fill in Darrell Issa on it.

This is why Drudge -- allied with the Hard Right -- is breaking the Arnold story. It's time to jettison him.

Paranoid? Yeah, okay. But 9/11 changed everything! Each leftie gets at least one conspiracy card for free.

--Kynn

Posted by: Kynn at October 3, 2003 12:40 AM | PERMALINK

Bustamante is not dropping out this is crap posited by Arnie's army of Pete Wilsonites to distract from their own problems
How ironic that Arnie can't recall the remarks he made about Hitler.
And what about the fact there are no women in positions of authority in his campaign or any of his businesses.
Why should Californians pay for his learning curve? If he is in fact educable something not proven.'
Highlight of the defense -Mrs. Schwarzenegger talking about the bad behavior of BOTH political parties.
Where I live in the sane part of the state the recall is going down down down'
You people in the South need to think about what you are doing

Posted by: Sallys at October 3, 2003 06:45 AM | PERMALINK

Am I just pessimistic or does anyone else feel nervous about the confluence of events all falling in "our favor"?

First, we have the White House/Bush administration in trouble by any measure. Next, Rush (a conservative icon) is subject of a drug investigation and loss of employment at ESPN. This morning I hear that Ahnuld "likes" or used to like Hitler and has apparently admitted he groped all these woman.

I have a theory that a large segment of apolitically-minded/independents default to a backlash philosophy dealing with these types of issues. The backlash can be against the media for breaking the stories, against the perceived side involved (democrats/liberals), or more commonly, both. Facts will not matter to these people!

I just watched CSPAN talking about Ahnuld vis-a-vis "groping" and Hitler. Out of 25 callers that I heard, not one person said, "yeah, I was planning on voting/supporting for Ahnuld, but after hearing these allegations, I don't think so".

Not one. If anything, he very well may get more votes out of this.

Comments?

Posted by: eric at October 3, 2003 06:52 AM | PERMALINK

Even more shocking Arnold revelations are coming soon! In fact, I am exclusively reporting on Arnold's attempt to eat a five-year-old girl's cat.

Posted by: Lonewacko: I Blogged Across America at October 3, 2003 07:30 AM | PERMALINK

Kynn: "Source for this?"
Dude, that was MATT YOUNG.

Posted by: John Isbell at October 3, 2003 07:56 AM | PERMALINK

re: "Sallys" and her comment on people in the "sane" part of the state, and "you people" down south.

Great - I encourage you to trumpet this attitude when attempting to convince voters to support your position. It ranks up there with "You are all so stupid." The "you people" comment is just too revealing. No doubt she is the type of person who would have California embrace an intellectual diversity akin to the racial diversity of Japan.

Posted by: Californio at October 3, 2003 11:28 AM | PERMALINK

"Source for this"

For the numbskulls stuck in a sterotypical view of California voters, perform a google search of 'Anrold support hispanics'.

You will find a break out of support for Arnold that shows second generation (and higher) Hispanics support Bustamante by a small 3% fraction over Arnold. These are more likely voters than first generation Hispanics.

The Hispanic disgust with Davis is not likely to result in less voter turnout, it is likely to result in more votes for Arnold if Bustamante drops.

Having Bustamante drop out of the race is the worse thing that Dems can do. A much better plan would have Davis concede defeat and throw his support to Bustamante. In fact, in a race between Bustamante and Davis alone, I would hazzard a guess that Bustamante would win.

I am sure that 2/3 of California voters have nothing but disgust for Davis.

Posted by: Matt Young at October 3, 2003 01:16 PM | PERMALINK

Arnold is making his way north through the Central Valley.

He has raallies scheduled for Saturday in the following towns:

Colvis @ 9:00 a.m.
Modesto: 1:30
Pleasanton 4:00 p.m.

He will then head north to Sacramento for a big rally at 12:00 noon on the capital steps.

See http://www.joinarnold.com/en/ for addresses of the rallies.

The LA Times reports that there are 6 buses of reporters (over 200) following Arnold, and two additional buses of minor candidates. Protestors are starting to show up and things are getting tense:

"As she spoke, an angry confrontation erupted between Schwarzenegger's supporters and roughly half a dozen female protesters carrying signs saying: "Hey, Arnold. Stop Harassing Women Now." A supporter ripped in half a sign reading "No Groper for Governor." An elderly man shouted at the protesters: "You're too stupid to get respect!""

I encourage all who are able to to intercept the bus tour and use it to show that Californoia Rejects Arnold.

This bus tour is a slow moving target with hundreds of reporters in tow ready to brodcast anything interesting they encounter around the world instantly. Let's make it interesting (in a peaceful, creative, lawful and effective manner). This is the time for you couch-dems to take some action and do your part toi help derail this railroad job. Do some freeway blogging, protest with signs from the overpasses, show up at the rallies with signs, follow the bus tour with slogans painted on your vehicle (wash-off paint) all the way to SACTO.

Lets bog him down and slow him down and stop his march to the capital (metaphorically). Turn his victory tour into a bitter lesson in democracy!

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