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September 29, 2003

YOU THINK YOU'RE SO SMART, DON'T YOU?....James Joyner expresses mild surprise that Arnold Schwarzenegger seems to have "won" the recall debate last week:

What this...demonstrates is the differences between the mindset of average voters versus intellectuals and political junkies. While I was impressed with Bustamante's cool demeanor and seeming grasp of the issues--even though I disagreed with most of his policy prescriptions--most viewers just thought he was uninspiring. While I thought Arnold was charming, I thought he lacked substance; most viewers apparently thought he exuded leadership. Thankfully, the mass public and I agree on one thing: Huffington is an annoying idiot.

I think this is about right. Policy positions aside, Bustamante seemed mostly pretty calm and knowledgable to me, while Arnold was a buffoon who was constantly scrapping with Arianna and tossing out Hollywood one liners.

But that's not how most people saw it. What they saw was that Bustamante was "condescending" and Schwarzenegger was "engaging." It's a complete flip flop.

What this shows once again is that in American politics there is no greater sin than looking like you think you're smarter than the other guy. It killed Al Gore in 2000 and probably did the same to Bustamante last week. You'd think big time politicians would eventually learn this lesson.

Posted by Kevin Drum at September 29, 2003 02:16 PM | TrackBack


Comments

"... there is no greater sin than looking like you think you're smarter than the other guy."

Well, that kills the Democrats' chances for the White House in '04.

Posted by: anonymous coward at September 29, 2003 02:18 PM | PERMALINK

Few things lead me to despair quite so quickly as the bone deep anti-intellectualism of the American Everyman.

Posted by: Ulrika O'Brien at September 29, 2003 02:19 PM | PERMALINK

First call, Recall Schwarzenegger. Get your petitions out.

Posted by: squiddy at September 29, 2003 02:21 PM | PERMALINK

I believe it is the Bee "blog" that explains that calm. cool, intelligent Bustamante was dead wrong on worker's comp.

Posted by: Tom Maguire at September 29, 2003 02:22 PM | PERMALINK

More politicans ought to do tech support at least once in their lives before proceeding on to higher office. It teaches you humility in the face of stupidity and how to keep on smiling the whole time.

Seriously though, it is a problem for political junkies like me to have to explain to someone why I think their worldview is, well, a wee bit off. Especially when the person I'm talking with wears their _own_ ego on their sleeve.

As H.L. Mencken said though "the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard". Fine, but why do *I* have to get it along with them for cryin' out loud? Oops, now I'm being elitist! Oh nooo....

Posted by: David W. at September 29, 2003 02:24 PM | PERMALINK

You could fill volumes with the things you'd think politicians would have learned by now.

Posted by: Crank at September 29, 2003 02:30 PM | PERMALINK

I think Kevin is placing blame in the wrong direction. He should instead be making the case that the public should value having a clue. Ignoring substance and deciding you want to vote for the person with the best one-liner is idiocy.

We should not be declaring that competent public officials need to act as if they are ignorant, likeable average guys. Do people pick doctors or lawyers based upon who comes off as the least condescending? "He graduated from Granada medical school and has never performed open heart surgery before, but he seemed so nice and that joke about the priest, the rabbi and the heart surgeon was so funny that I just had to pick him for my angioplasty."

Time for the voting public to grow up. Same for the press that sums up any debate that has a substantive discussion of issues as "lacking in fireworks" or just plain boring.

You have a serious fiscal crisis. The last thing California needs is to elect someone who has zero grasp on the budget situation and fails to put forth a credible solution. Cruz should be able to point that out without being derided for being condescending.

Posted by: Chuck Smith at September 29, 2003 02:34 PM | PERMALINK

It might be that voters accurately recognized that Bustamente was offering them more of the same stuff that Davis has been selling.

Of course, the really idealistic viewpoint would be that the voters are disappointed in Bustamente for getting little details like the state energy funding and worker's comp. completely wrong . . .

Posted by: J_Mann at September 29, 2003 02:36 PM | PERMALINK

Here's what I said last week in my post about the California gubernatorial debate :

Is the rest of the world smoking crack or did I just see a different debate? I suspect that Arnold set everyone's expectations so low that his ability to form simple sentences like "You guys have an addiction problem. You should go to an addiction place." was enough to impress people into voting for him.

The real shame is that Bustamante, who's naturally a soft-spoken and slow speaker, has been labeled condescending and pandering. I don't think this is necessarily the case, but if 54% of Californians think Arnold won last night's debate, then maybe they do need to be treated like children.

Posted by: greg at September 29, 2003 02:41 PM | PERMALINK

So maybe the ideal candidate would just offer monosyllabic grunts as debate responses, and maybe growl and shake his fist a few times.

Say hello to Sasquatch, the ideal candidate for the '00s!

Posted by: me at September 29, 2003 02:42 PM | PERMALINK

Er, pardon the tangent, but does anyone see a connection between our nation's anti-intellectualism and the Bush admin's total disregard for _intelligence_ reports? They're smart, these dummies. What' s a brain to do?

Posted by: Victor at September 29, 2003 02:43 PM | PERMALINK

I didn't think Bustamante came off as intelligent. I thought he had a handful of really good answers but didn't have much to say the rest of the time (in hopes of looking above the fray). However, it is beyond me how Arnold came off looking like a "leader". He spent the whole time sniping with Ariana and taking cheap shots. That poll is worth looking at more closely. Others have already talked about its methodology, but unless I read it wrong, a majority of the respondents said the recall is bad for California.

Posted by: halle at September 29, 2003 02:44 PM | PERMALINK

I always thought that this was a kind of real-life intelligence test. I mean, if you know what will get you elected, but you're either incapable of doing it or can't be bothered, then you probably are too freaking incompetent to do the job.
Just a thought.

Posted by: rhinoman at September 29, 2003 02:46 PM | PERMALINK

Actually Gore won, didn't he? That is to say that he got more votes than the other guy, and even in a "fair" count in Florida more votes. He lost because 5 justices of the Supreme Court stole the election from the citizens. That is if I remember correctly of course.

Posted by: Ron at September 29, 2003 02:46 PM | PERMALINK

Do people pick doctors or lawyers based upon who comes off as the least condescending?

I can answer that with a resounding "Yes" -- my wife chooses her health care providers based on who has the best bedside manner, and arrogance is definitely a cardinal sin. Luckily she usually relies on me to tell her how she ought to vote. B-)

Posted by: KenB at September 29, 2003 02:48 PM | PERMALINK

How do we know that any changes in polling are due to this debate? What were the ratings of this debate?

I think it's just as likely that whatever trends going on are not related to the debate. What was the percentage of R vs. D viewers of this debate? Does anybody have any idea? Do the pollsters have sophisticated enough models to account for this? Did they survey only viewers?

With the 2000 prez debates, the nationwide airing allowed a guaranteed large sample of viewers. This is a big state, but not that big. And Gore was less likable according to most people I know, and surely hurt his vote totals.

Posted by: bc at September 29, 2003 02:57 PM | PERMALINK

But how then, and I ask this seriously, was Bill Clinton such a successful politician?

Posted by: Julie at September 29, 2003 03:16 PM | PERMALINK

I've said it before and I'll say it again: people are dumb, dumb, dumb.

Posted by: Tim at September 29, 2003 03:33 PM | PERMALINK

Re: Clinton/A.S. et al

In an election, charisma trumps nebbishness, even when the neb has a point.

Posted by: Californio at September 29, 2003 03:54 PM | PERMALINK

Do people pick doctors or lawyers based upon who comes off as the least condescending?

I say yes! I know someone who refused to have her child treated at a leading pediatric cancer center because she thought one of the doctors was arrogant. She instead chose for her son to be treated at a middle of the road adult cancer center because the doctors were 'nice'. Her son is dead now.

Posted by: Dem Vet at September 29, 2003 04:26 PM | PERMALINK

what about the WALL TO FUCKING WALL glowing coverage the national and state/local (even international!) media gave to arnold??? does that count? jesus, arnold could be a convicted ax-murderer and the media would spin it that he therefore "should be good at cutting the budget!" because, like Bush before him, THEY JUST PLAIN WANT THE SUCKER TO WIN.

Posted by: noam chimpsky at September 29, 2003 04:26 PM | PERMALINK

There was an interesting analysis on NPR the next day, with some Professor of communication or other. He said that his research showed that people watched debates, and then said, almost regardless of what actually happened, that their candidate came off best.

In other words, people see what they want to see. They want to believe that voting for the Alpha Male can save them. They think they are voting for homecoming king or something.

I wouldn't mind so much, but I have to live in the world that these idiots construct.

Posted by: craigie at September 29, 2003 04:34 PM | PERMALINK

So Californians are dumb for not supporting Bustamante? It couldn't possible be that they don't want a politician who would give de facto citizenship to illegal immigrants. No, it could not possibly be that.

Posted by: mark at September 29, 2003 05:16 PM | PERMALINK

No Mark, Californians are dumb if they hand over (it ain't done yet!) the reigns over to a musclebound, steroid-infused, Nazi-befriending, British-TV-reporter-breast-groping, philandering, Mapplethorpe nude modeling, former male escort who is a frontman for the man who brought us energy deregulation: Pete Wilson.

Even fucking McClintock is warning us about Wilson for christ's sake!

You worried about a couple more wetbacks mark? Wait till you see that gas bill in 2007! Arnold's gonna deregulate and hand out favors to his "non-special-interest" corporate buddies like nobody's business.

And no I _do not_ like Davis; I just recognize Arnold for what he is.

Posted by: noam chimpsky at September 29, 2003 05:28 PM | PERMALINK

It's the stupidity, stupid!

Posted by: Gabriel Gonzalez at September 29, 2003 05:35 PM | PERMALINK

What did Arianna do that was so annoying? Speak the truth? Challenge Arnold on his made-for-TV sound bytes?

Inquiring minds want to know. I thought she did very well. In fact, I think she won the debate.

Posted by: Commisar at September 29, 2003 05:39 PM | PERMALINK

Shockingly enough, the liberals once again think that because people aren't voting for democrats its because they are stupid. I think that one of the defining characteristics of liberals is to think that average people are blabbering idiots. This thread pretty much bearss that out.

If people are just idiots who have been charmed by Arnold then why does that latest poll show that McClintock would also beat Bustamante if Arnold weren't running? Could it possibly be that the California voters have seen what democrats do when they have complete and total control of a government and made a rational choice that they want ANY republican over Davis or Bustamante?

Posted by: Damon at September 29, 2003 05:42 PM | PERMALINK

Damon - I'll bite. If more people vote for Arnold, you're a bunch of freeping morons. If more vote for McClintock I'll at least admit you're somewhat as smart as us ivory-tower libruls.

While off topic, I would probably have to trollpine that liberals are on balance a tad more intelligent. But I'll allow that conservatives are better at getting shit done since they value conformity and silence dissent, which is actually useful in making trains run on time, and of course also in gassing large numbers of jews, gypsies, and homosexuals.

Posted by: noam chimpsky at September 29, 2003 05:56 PM | PERMALINK

That was always Clinton's gift. I think he was one of the smartest President's we have had, but he kept the fact well hidden.

Posted by: Daryl McCullough at September 29, 2003 06:35 PM | PERMALINK

First call, Recall Schwarzenegger. Get your petitions out.

Seriously, where can we get these on October 8th (for real, not the Doonesbury version)? As an independent I was willing to give Arnold a fair hearing once he announced; I have always planned to vote "no" on the recall (and in fact already have) but would have considered voting for Arnold in part 2 (and maybe even been swayed to vote Yes on pt. 1) if a serious and compelling case were made. Instead, his lack of specifics and substance dropped him through the lower limit of my expectations. His willingness to jet out of state to spend hours being softballed on the cable freakshows while blowing off serious inquiries by California media reveal him as nothing but an arrogant dilletante contemptuous of "real people," or at least those real enough to take their citizenship halfway seriously.

Posted by: TomF at September 29, 2003 08:20 PM | PERMALINK

People are pretty much equally smart/stupid around the planet, natch. But I do think US voters are ignorant and ADD, and I think our media work hard to keep it that way. It's a Larry King newsworld. We're not alone in this: check out Italy.
I've read arguments that the CA polls are heavily skewed, like the new CNN one. I guess we'll see on Oct. 7.

Posted by: John Isbell at September 29, 2003 09:35 PM | PERMALINK

Nice picture of the intellectual Arnold can be found on today's Bartcop.com -

http://www.bartcop.com/arnie-playboy.htm

PG-13 or R so don't open at work or in front of kids. I know LA folks are celebrity crazed, but do they really want this freak for Govenor?

Posted by: Mark at September 29, 2003 09:39 PM | PERMALINK

I know one thing: all Arnold supporters are now objectively pro - gang banging.

Don't you EVER lecture anyone about family values or morality again!

Posted by: noam chimpsky at September 29, 2003 10:29 PM | PERMALINK

The voters who believe that the solution for California's various problems with the budget, workers' comp and education is an actor utterly devoid of any experience at doing any of the things a governor must do are living in a dream world. They are not just ill-informed about the problems, they have no desire to become informed. They solution is to do something very silly in order to express . . . what? Existential anxiety? Alienation? What?

If any of you Arnold backers are around, tell me, in how ever many words you need to do it, why Arnold is the right guy for this job? If you are a Republican or call yourself a conservative, tell me why you don't think McClintock is a better idea.

Or remain silent and admit you'd vote for anything with an R after its name.

Posted by: James E. Powell at September 29, 2003 10:40 PM | PERMALINK

Noam's got the right idea. Arnold "won" because he got positive reviews from a lot of the media. The San Jose Mercury News, for example, gave a positive review on his debate performance.

The public depends on the deliberation that happens in the media to figure out who to trust, and because the "analysis" articles the day after generally said Arnold did okay the public's trust in Arnold went up.

Since the debate in the media itself is not very vigorous the public has to trust the consensus that emerges.

This is exactly why media consolidation is bad for democracy.

Posted by: Ranjit at September 30, 2003 01:56 AM | PERMALINK

Arnold seems to have won--the debate, the poll, the election--because the media tells us so. It's a slam-dunk, done-deal, all over except for the voting. Turn the skew:

Vote NO, Bustamante, NO, NO.

Posted by: Pete at September 30, 2003 02:52 AM | PERMALINK

Some people are born stupid, some achieve stupidity, some have stupidity thrust upon them.

America is a machine for accomplishing that third one there.

Posted by: SqueakyRat at September 30, 2003 05:24 AM | PERMALINK

Oh, geez, guys.

As any halfway successfull intelligent person knows, sometimes you gotta hide it. In politics, charisma beats intelligence. And if you really are so smart, then learn to fake charisma if you want to go into politics.

Otherwise you are the short guy whining that it shouldn't take height to play center in baseketball.

Who said intelligence should open every single door? It's not what you got, it's what you do with it. If you are so smart, don't act so stewpid.

You know they have classes in this stuff.

Posted by: Tripp at September 30, 2003 06:51 AM | PERMALINK

Interestingly, my brother is a strong liberal Democrat who is in a union and works in the LA area. He occasionally tries to discuss politics with me, but for the most part won't because he can't hold up his end of the debate.

He is going to vote for Arnold. I asked him why and response is primarily emotional. He's pissed at the whole thing (CA economy etc) and I think his is voting out of protest. I think he's hoping that some in the CA legislature get "the message" and get their sh*t together. He also invoked Jesse Ventura's name for what that's worth.

I don't think the "R" behind Arnold's name is relevent. He's an outsider. Someone who won't ride the party line. Whether that is actually true or not, I think, is also irrelavent. My brother's perception is what is driving his vote. This has to transfer to other voters in CA, else how could Arnold be so popular? I'm sure their are Republicans that are going to vote for him because he has an "R" behind his name - but it also has something to do with him looking like he's going to win.

I think my brother is the average Democrat. Not necessarily Liberal as much as votes the party. He actually told me he doesn't think about the issues as his union sends him "political stuff" on who the best candidate is and that's how he votes (swear to God). How many union other Democrats do the same thing?

I'm sure I'd find the same mindset on the Conservative side too.

I live in fly-over country and don't care that much who wins. You guys have made your bed and it's bedtime.

Posted by: Black Oak at September 30, 2003 08:37 AM | PERMALINK

That's fascinating, Black Oak, because my brother is Arnold Schwarzenegger and he says he is going to vote for Davis and then for Bustamante. He says he is just sick to death of these totally amoral GOP con jobs. And the f***ing lies! The lies, for God's sake!
So go figure.

Posted by: John Isbell at September 30, 2003 08:42 AM | PERMALINK

Congrats John,
Very mature. Have you honed that sharp wit or does it come naturally?

I guess since I'm a conservative - I can't put in my two cents.

ECHO, Echo, Echo, echo........

Posted by: Black Oak at September 30, 2003 08:48 AM | PERMALINK

Actually, Gallup says that the Average California Voter -- by a large margin -- thinks McClintock won the debate, with Schwarzenegger a distant second. So, the real story is that -- as usual -- the average voter (who, as Paul Krugman says, doesn't spend much time thinking about politics because on balance it doesn't rationally pay off for him to think much about politics) is willing to take a flyer on someone who promises him something for nothing, and will correct himself only AFTER his choice is exposed as a fraud. It's the oldest story in the book where democracies are concerned -- Argentina is only the latest example.

Posted by: Bruce Moomaw at September 30, 2003 09:20 AM | PERMALINK

Kevin,

So people like you think the rest of us are stupid. I appreciate knowing this fact, now I can discount with a clear mind most of your ideas as to how to live my own life.

Posted by: Gene at September 30, 2003 09:39 AM | PERMALINK

I told my wife that in this debate, I thought Arnold played Rocky. Remember how the original Rocky ended? Most people think, as they thought when they walked out of the theater (in 1976?) that Rocky won.

But he didn't. He lost on points. But he FELT like a winner, and most of the public THOUGHT he won, because he went the distance with the champ.

That was how I felt about Arnold. NO, he didn't win, didn't really come close, but he went the distance, which was a lot more than I expected.

Posted by: Decnavda at September 30, 2003 09:47 AM | PERMALINK

"The voters who believe that the solution for California's various problems with the budget, workers' comp and education is an actor utterly devoid of any experience at doing any of the things a governor must do are living in a dream world. They are not just ill-informed about the problems, they have no desire to become informed. They solution is to do something very silly in order to express . . . what? Existential anxiety? Alienation? What?"

Well, what do you do when faced with a choice between someone who will competently and intelligently achieve ends that you firmly oppose, and someone with little experience at achieving any political ends at all, but at least doesn't seem committed to achieving things that you oppose?

That's the question facing lots of people in California. I don't see how their response indicates that they are stupid.

Posted by: Ken at September 30, 2003 12:00 PM | PERMALINK

Decnavda,
So does that mean in 2013 Arnold will be the Premiere of Russia?

Posted by: Tripp at September 30, 2003 12:02 PM | PERMALINK

Black Oak,

You're brother's way off if he thinks Schwarzenegger is an outsider. Anyone who hangs out with people like Ken Lay, and can raise millions of dollars from special interest groups is not an outsider.

The fact that Schwarzenegger has an outsider appearance is created by a media that won't raise those points. They've allowed Schwarzenegger to define special interest as just those groups that support the Democrats.

The problem here isn't that the people are stupid, it's that they trust their "unbiased" media to be giving them accurate portrayals of the candidates.

Having debates on stages is nice, but there really needs to be more debate within the mainstream media following those events that are readily available to the general public. Right now the only place to go for that are blogs like this.

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Amerikkkans are the best complainers and jokers/stand-up political comics etc, BUT WHEN IT COMES TO GETTING OFF YOUR FAT ARSES TO DO A FUCKING THING ... FORGET IT!!!!!!!

YOU DIDN'T EVEN BOTHER TO GET OFF YOUR ARSES TO IMPEACH BUSH! www.impeach-bush-now.org

THE REST OF THE WORLD SUFFERS BECAUSE OF YOUR LAZINESS, ARROGANCE and ALL-TALK-NO-ACTION WAY OF LIVING LIFE!!!!!!!!!

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