September 12, 2003
YET MORE RECALL POLLING....The LA Times has yet another recall poll this morning. Here's what it says:
Recall: 50% yes, 47% no
That's fairly close to the Field poll results from
earlier in the week. However, there are a couple of important
differences: First, it shows the recall race itself being very tight right now, and Davis could end up beating it. This is something that Republican strategists are pretty worried about.
Second, McClintock's numbers continue to rise. There's no way he's
going to pull out of the race with healthy polling figures like this.
Posted by Kevin Drum at September 12, 2003 08:28 AM
Recalled or not, the budget deficit is still a runaway freight train.
... and it's loaded with nuclear bombs, and what about Mary Lou? (She's tied to the tracks up ahead.)
About the only good thing about McClintock's numbers is, should he
somehow win this thing, it would deny Pete Wilson another chance to
really screw this state up. We out here in the Inland Empire are still
paying to make his toll road buddies very wealthy. (Sure, the county
bought the road, but the tolls to pay for the purchase continue.)
There are a whole bunch of social conservatives around, who are
strongly pro-life, anti-Hollywood, etc. These are the folks who mess up
the plans every time the Republican big shots try to unite around a
candidate moderate enough to win in California. These folks will vote
to recall Davis, but I can't imagine them voting for Busta or Arnold. As
they learn more about the race, they'll be switching from Arnold to
I predict a big fight at the state Republican convention on this matter. The Republicans look set to self destruct again.
I suppose it's possible that some way could be found to drive
McClintock out of the race (he'd have to be promised something very
big), but I doubt that it will work. I think we'll know by the time the
convention is over.
The trends of this are remarkable. The GOP obviously considered the
yes vote as a lock. Now they will have to find a way to campaign for
the recall while trying to raise the numbers for Arnie at the same time.
Davis on the other hand only has to move those numbers a couple more
points and he will pull this thing out
What bugs me is the whole thing in one shebang.
When was the last time California elected a govenor with 60% of the
vote? Or more? People are more apt to vote against someone than for.
And the whole race is being ultra-fast, in October, not even November, where you'd expect it, and no primary or nothin'...
Then on top of that, you ask anyone who's voting for the recall what
it's about, they'll give you a dozen answers, none of the related to
If No wins, will they still release the results of part 2? I'd love
to see how much it would piss off Republicans if Arnold won part 2 but
it ends up being irrelevant.
The strategic possibilites here are fascinating. Bustamante's core
supporters clearly have an incentive to vote YES on the recall. I doubt
this is showing up since it's the kind of thing people would lie about.
(Of course I'll vote NO on the recall wink, wink.)
The better Bustamante does in the polls the stronger the incentive to
vote YES on the recall will become for these core voters. By core
voters, I mean those who actually want Bustamante, rather than just any
Dem in the governors office.
Schwarzenegger's supporters will clearly vote YES on the recall.
But analyzing McClintock's supporters is tricky. If he has a chance
of winning, his supporters will clearly vote YES on the recall. But if
he's losing, or if gets squeezed by the Republican leadership, many of
his core supporters may vote NO on the recall, just to ensure that a
squishy girly republican like Arnold doesn't get elected.
And if the courts delay this election -- which I surely hope they do
-- all of this will change. Arnold can't run and hide his views (or
lack thereof) forever. Maybe Ubie would get back in!
Kevin: "There's no way he's going to pull out of the race with healthy polling figures like this."
I don't know, a horse's head will do wonders.
And Arnold is a girly-man. This cannot be said too often.
Assuming Davis is recalled, the result of part 2 is as likely to
depend on who gets most marked sample ballots out as on who is leading
in the polls. The ballot runs seven pages, just for the recall
question. There are approximately 20 names per page, with
non-consecutive numbers against them, so it looks like you're missing a
page or six (this may be standard in CA, I don't know). Those
candidates whose supporters go in there knowing where to find what to
mark are going to be in much better shape than those whose supporters go
We will get the results for both parts at the same time. Even if
Davis "wins" we will still know who would have been our new governor.
The election part of this (as opposed to the recall part) actually
resembles real democracy, because there are so many choices. Now, if
only I could rank the people I want to vote for, in
instant-runoff fashion, then we would really get someone who was wanted
by the most people, instead of someone who was least-unwanted.
The ballot runs seven pages, just for the recall question
Jam, I just got my sample ballot in the mail yesterday and it was two
pages. The first had the Yes/No question and all the names of the
candidates. Second page was the two referenda questions. Not sure where
you're getting your 7-page ballot info from.
And Kevin's right about McClintock. With his numbers rising, there's
no way he's bowing out. Which is driving the national GOP nuts. They've
struggled mightily keep their fingerprints off this thing, but now they
see it slipping away so they're egging on nutbags like Dan Burton to get
involved and placing editorials:
Now why would some political hack from Georgia be interested in this
race? Hmmm.... maybe Rove and gang don't want any A-list players at the
scene of the crime. At the same time, McClintock, far from buckling, is
actually fighting back. Check this out:
Ha! A true-believing California Republican says that Arnold should
step down. Lovely. A GOP knife fight in the uber liberal SF Chron. A
treat to you all from our buddy Phil Bronstein. The convention is going
to be a joy.
Now I am not a McClintock supporter or a Republican for that matter,
but I can't help but admire and laud McClintock's stance. No matter how
you look at it, the Republican backing of Schwartzeneggar is incredibly
cynical. It is easily as cynical as Bush for President. They don't
care what their candidate stands for, they just want to win. McClintock
is saying substance matters. I like that stance.
Having said that: No on Recall, Yes on Bustamante
The number of pages on the ballot depends which model voting machine your county uses.
I got the 7 page ballot from what purported to be a scan of it at http://server.kozinski.com:8080/~yale/ballot/.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that the 7 page ballots
are also concentrated in minority leaning areas. Anybody know which
counties have which ballots?
I don't yet know about the ballot, but I have 22 pages on just the
gubernatorial candidates in the Official Voter Information Guide.
Ain't no disgrace to be poor - but might as well be.
Gratitude is not only the greatest of virtues, but the parent of all others.
It is only the most intelligent and the most stupid who are not susceptible to change.
We are healthy only to the extent that our ideas are humane.
Genius may have its limitations, but stupidity is not thus handicapped.
Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what's right.
Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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