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September 12, 2003

YET MORE RECALL POLLING....The LA Times has yet another recall poll this morning. Here's what it says:

  • Recall: 50% yes, 47% no

  • Bustamante: 30%

  • Schwarzenegger: 25%

  • McClintock: 18%

That's fairly close to the Field poll results from earlier in the week. However, there are a couple of important differences: First, it shows the recall race itself being very tight right now, and Davis could end up beating it. This is something that Republican strategists are pretty worried about. Second, McClintock's numbers continue to rise. There's no way he's going to pull out of the race with healthy polling figures like this.

Posted by Kevin Drum at September 12, 2003 08:28 AM | TrackBack


Comments

Recalled or not, the budget deficit is still a runaway freight train.

Posted by: squiddy at September 12, 2003 09:00 AM | PERMALINK

... and it's loaded with nuclear bombs, and what about Mary Lou? (She's tied to the tracks up ahead.)

About the only good thing about McClintock's numbers is, should he somehow win this thing, it would deny Pete Wilson another chance to really screw this state up. We out here in the Inland Empire are still paying to make his toll road buddies very wealthy. (Sure, the county bought the road, but the tolls to pay for the purchase continue.)

Posted by: pessimist at September 12, 2003 09:07 AM | PERMALINK

There are a whole bunch of social conservatives around, who are strongly pro-life, anti-Hollywood, etc. These are the folks who mess up the plans every time the Republican big shots try to unite around a candidate moderate enough to win in California. These folks will vote to recall Davis, but I can't imagine them voting for Busta or Arnold. As they learn more about the race, they'll be switching from Arnold to McClintock.

I predict a big fight at the state Republican convention on this matter. The Republicans look set to self destruct again.

I suppose it's possible that some way could be found to drive McClintock out of the race (he'd have to be promised something very big), but I doubt that it will work. I think we'll know by the time the convention is over.

Posted by: Joe Buck at September 12, 2003 09:14 AM | PERMALINK

The trends of this are remarkable. The GOP obviously considered the yes vote as a lock. Now they will have to find a way to campaign for the recall while trying to raise the numbers for Arnie at the same time. Davis on the other hand only has to move those numbers a couple more points and he will pull this thing out

Posted by: surfk9 at September 12, 2003 09:25 AM | PERMALINK

What bugs me is the whole thing in one shebang.

When was the last time California elected a govenor with 60% of the vote? Or more? People are more apt to vote against someone than for.

And the whole race is being ultra-fast, in October, not even November, where you'd expect it, and no primary or nothin'...

Then on top of that, you ask anyone who's voting for the recall what it's about, they'll give you a dozen answers, none of the related to reality.

http://shock-awe.info/archive/000874.php

*sigh*

Posted by: Crissa at September 12, 2003 09:33 AM | PERMALINK

If No wins, will they still release the results of part 2? I'd love to see how much it would piss off Republicans if Arnold won part 2 but it ends up being irrelevant.

Posted by: SP at September 12, 2003 09:37 AM | PERMALINK

The strategic possibilites here are fascinating. Bustamante's core supporters clearly have an incentive to vote YES on the recall. I doubt this is showing up since it's the kind of thing people would lie about. (Of course I'll vote NO on the recall wink, wink.)

The better Bustamante does in the polls the stronger the incentive to vote YES on the recall will become for these core voters. By core voters, I mean those who actually want Bustamante, rather than just any Dem in the governors office.

Schwarzenegger's supporters will clearly vote YES on the recall.

But analyzing McClintock's supporters is tricky. If he has a chance of winning, his supporters will clearly vote YES on the recall. But if he's losing, or if gets squeezed by the Republican leadership, many of his core supporters may vote NO on the recall, just to ensure that a squishy girly republican like Arnold doesn't get elected.

And if the courts delay this election -- which I surely hope they do -- all of this will change. Arnold can't run and hide his views (or lack thereof) forever. Maybe Ubie would get back in!

Posted by: boban at September 12, 2003 10:11 AM | PERMALINK

Kevin: "There's no way he's going to pull out of the race with healthy polling figures like this."
I don't know, a horse's head will do wonders.
And Arnold is a girly-man. This cannot be said too often.

Posted by: John Isbell at September 12, 2003 10:23 AM | PERMALINK

Assuming Davis is recalled, the result of part 2 is as likely to depend on who gets most marked sample ballots out as on who is leading in the polls. The ballot runs seven pages, just for the recall question. There are approximately 20 names per page, with non-consecutive numbers against them, so it looks like you're missing a page or six (this may be standard in CA, I don't know). Those candidates whose supporters go in there knowing where to find what to mark are going to be in much better shape than those whose supporters go in blind.

Posted by: jam at September 12, 2003 10:41 AM | PERMALINK

SP:

We will get the results for both parts at the same time. Even if Davis "wins" we will still know who would have been our new governor.

Posted by: Jenny at September 12, 2003 12:01 PM | PERMALINK

The election part of this (as opposed to the recall part) actually resembles real democracy, because there are so many choices. Now, if only I could rank the people I want to vote for, in instant-runoff fashion, then we would really get someone who was wanted by the most people, instead of someone who was least-unwanted.

Posted by: craigie at September 12, 2003 12:06 PM | PERMALINK

The ballot runs seven pages, just for the recall question

Jam, I just got my sample ballot in the mail yesterday and it was two pages. The first had the Yes/No question and all the names of the candidates. Second page was the two referenda questions. Not sure where you're getting your 7-page ballot info from.

And Kevin's right about McClintock. With his numbers rising, there's no way he's bowing out. Which is driving the national GOP nuts. They've struggled mightily keep their fingerprints off this thing, but now they see it slipping away so they're egging on nutbags like Dan Burton to get involved and placing editorials:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2003/09/12/ED302560.DTL

Now why would some political hack from Georgia be interested in this race? Hmmm.... maybe Rove and gang don't want any A-list players at the scene of the crime. At the same time, McClintock, far from buckling, is actually fighting back. Check this out:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2003/09/12/ED254453.DTL

Ha! A true-believing California Republican says that Arnold should step down. Lovely. A GOP knife fight in the uber liberal SF Chron. A treat to you all from our buddy Phil Bronstein. The convention is going to be a joy.

Posted by: bling at September 12, 2003 12:15 PM | PERMALINK

Now I am not a McClintock supporter or a Republican for that matter, but I can't help but admire and laud McClintock's stance. No matter how you look at it, the Republican backing of Schwartzeneggar is incredibly cynical. It is easily as cynical as Bush for President. They don't care what their candidate stands for, they just want to win. McClintock is saying substance matters. I like that stance.

Having said that: No on Recall, Yes on Bustamante

Posted by: Moebetta at September 12, 2003 01:09 PM | PERMALINK

The number of pages on the ballot depends which model voting machine your county uses.

Posted by: Andrew Lazarus at September 12, 2003 02:32 PM | PERMALINK

I got the 7 page ballot from what purported to be a scan of it at http://server.kozinski.com:8080/~yale/ballot/.

Posted by: jam at September 12, 2003 02:40 PM | PERMALINK

I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that the 7 page ballots are also concentrated in minority leaning areas. Anybody know which counties have which ballots?

Posted by: boban at September 12, 2003 02:45 PM | PERMALINK

I don't yet know about the ballot, but I have 22 pages on just the gubernatorial candidates in the Official Voter Information Guide.

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