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September 04, 2003

CHEAPER CDs....Universal Music has decided to cut the price of its CDs by about 25% in an attempt to discourage music downloading. Hmmm....

Is this a sign of things to come, or an admission of desperation from a flailing company? Stay tuned.

Posted by Kevin Drum at September 4, 2003 08:57 AM | TrackBack


Comments

Well, if they'd cut 25% of the sucking out of their music, I'd be 25% more likely to listen to that kind of music.

Posted by: squiddy at September 4, 2003 09:08 AM | PERMALINK

Since the price of cds has increased far beyond inflation, in inflation-adjusted dollars this puts them back at what, 1996?

Posted by: phil at September 4, 2003 09:10 AM | PERMALINK

This is way, way too late. If they had been reasonable all along the allure of Kazaa et. al. would not be so great. But charging $18 for a CD that costs 10 cents to make doesn't get people on your good side. After 15 years of gouging, lowering prices marginally is just not going to cut it. Bastards deserve what they get. Their business model was/is highway robbery.

Posted by: Mitch Schindler at September 4, 2003 09:25 AM | PERMALINK

And worse, charging $18 for a CD which, if you're lucky, contains 4 good songs out of 10-15 songs.

Posted by: Barry at September 4, 2003 09:27 AM | PERMALINK

I think it's desperation. It's over. They are screwed, plain and simple.

Predictions that a piece of technology will destroy an industry usually don't come true. The photocopier didn't destroy the publishing industry becuase it's too much trouble to stand over the copy machine for 45 minutes and copy all 200 pages when can just buy the book for $5.95.

But this is different. Copying music is so much easier. All it takes is one click of a mouse.

Selling songs for $0.99 each, like Apple is doing, seems like a good idea. I'll pay for them, but that's becuase I understand that people need to make a living, and I also don't like to steal. But if I were a teenager, I'd be stealing like crazy.

They're going to have to find another way to make money. Promotions, merchandise, concerts -- whatever. But as far as CD's go, they're doomed.

Posted by: Joe Schmoe at September 4, 2003 09:28 AM | PERMALINK

It's both. And probably the beginning of a two-pronged process. One, find a price consumers will live with. Two, find the level of legal threat that will stop folks from stealing music.

And while they're certainly bastards, I disagree re Kaaza et al. If you can get something for free while sitting on your butt in front of a computer, what is the incentive to leave home and buy it at any price? Cool cover art? Which brings us back to the two-pronged process.

Posted by: harley at September 4, 2003 09:31 AM | PERMALINK

Well here's a quick and fun solution: Back to Vinyl!!

Posted by: harley at September 4, 2003 09:32 AM | PERMALINK

In a related move, teenagers across the country sharing music for free have also decided to reduce fees 25%.

Posted by: Thersites at September 4, 2003 09:32 AM | PERMALINK

It's my understanding that artists get around $1 for each CD sold.
Most of their income is derived from touring and merchandise sales.

Posted by: trout at September 4, 2003 09:41 AM | PERMALINK

Did anyone else catch the story on NPR this morning about the firm that tracks down individuals sharing copyrighted material? They send a warning, and if that is ignored they do something legal (sorry to be vague; I must have been making a lefthand turn during that part of the story).

Possibly the carrot (99 cent downloads instead of $18 CDs) and the stick (you really might get caught) will save the industry.

Posted by: Emma Anne at September 4, 2003 09:46 AM | PERMALINK

Yep-the NPR thing was interesting.

I would think reducing prices would help increase the sales of their CDs at the expense of their competitors, presuming they don't follow suit. But 25% off of something is still more than "free," so I can't see how it would have any impact on piracy.

Posted by: James Joyner at September 4, 2003 09:52 AM | PERMALINK

"Well, if they'd cut 25% of the sucking out of their music, I'd be 25% more likely to listen to that kind of music." Said Squiddy.

Exactly!

Of course I have to disclose that I am over 30 and married. So maybe I just no longer know what good music is.

Posted by: kgill at September 4, 2003 10:03 AM | PERMALINK

I would like to see how Universal is actually implementing that price change, because retailers (like Walmart) actually have enormous sway over the price of a CD. That's why 1) any CD you can buy at Walmart or Tower Records, you can buy at Best Buy for much cheaper, and 2) independent record stores actually charge as much or more than big chains, because they stock music that is not guaranteed to sell by the millions.

One of my favorite record labels, Dischord, puts the price at which you can buy the CD directly from the label (including postage) on every CD; the price is usually around eight or nine bucks. But you imagine the price once it reaches Tower Records.

Posted by: Kriston at September 4, 2003 10:06 AM | PERMALINK

It's a weird decision to make on the eve of a giant merger.

Posted by: theperegrine at September 4, 2003 10:06 AM | PERMALINK

what is the incentive to leave home and buy it at any price?

Besides added extras, time, basically. Lacking a high-speed connection or the patience to download, some listeners will always just decide buying is easier.

Back to Vinyl!!

12" and 7" records are still big in the various dance music/DJ subgenres while audiophile pressings seem to be becoming more popular among the rock/indie set. It could happen. More likely a vinyl resurgence will just be one more thing CDs have to compete with. That might contribute to lower CD prices. My guess is that in the future we'll see a wider range of prices for all CDs.

Posted by: Paul at September 4, 2003 10:07 AM | PERMALINK

Peregrine: no, Universal Music isn't part of the merger talks. Vivendi is holding onto them for the moment, apparently because their valuation is so low that they can't get much for them.

Posted by: Kevin Drum at September 4, 2003 10:13 AM | PERMALINK

I agree with Mitch that it's way too late.

And kgill, you're not too old to know what good music is. I'm significantly over 30 and stopped listening to current music after Alice in Chains.
I listen to Buddy Guy and Paul Butterfield these days. The wretch factor in current music isn't worth a 99% reduced CD.

Posted by: vachon at September 4, 2003 10:15 AM | PERMALINK

Kevin-

Ah.

Well...I'm pretty ambiguous about it. CDs have always cost less to produce than tapes, so the prices have always been artificially inflated. By how much I'm not qualified to say, but it should have been presumed inevitable that as the technology got even cheaper, the prices would come down.

The industry earned a lot of ill will by keeping them up, and pushing them higher, at a time when media-savvy consumers were learning first-hand how inexpensive materials and replication were. Whether or not it's fair or true, most people with a $100 CD-RW have a hard time understanding why a disc and case available to them in bulk at Wal-Mart for $.10 and burned with $.02 worth of electric power, outfitted with a sleeve on glossy paper that would cost $.40 to produce at home, could end up costing $18.99 in a retail store.

Posted by: theperegrine at September 4, 2003 10:30 AM | PERMALINK
It's my understanding that artists get around $1 for each CD sold. Most of their income is derived from touring and merchandise sales.
This is true to a point, although there are other people who have to be paid out of the CD cost as well - producers, graphic artists, copy writers/editors, etc. Still, the profit margin on CDs is insanely high.

A nice pie graph breaking down where the money goes.

Posted by: Yuda at September 4, 2003 10:34 AM | PERMALINK

Yuda-

Yes, but they only have to be paid once. Mass-production is supposed to be cheaper than handicraft. If I can make the CD at home for $.75, and I threw in $5 to go to the artists for original material, $2 to go to the graphic designers for the sleeves, posters and ads, $2 to for the studio technicians, $1 for promotion, another $1 for equipment and materials overhead (which is outrageous, but hey!), and a full whopping $2 markup for the studio, I'm still at $13.75.

Posted by: theperegrine at September 4, 2003 10:42 AM | PERMALINK

CD sales of top 10 artists have dropped 50% since 2000. While musicians make money on tours and merch, the Music Industry itself relies on the sale of product, i.e. CD's. A 50% drop in sales will prompt any industry to lower prices.

Posted by: Bhaal at September 4, 2003 10:45 AM | PERMALINK
Yes, but they only have to be paid once. Mass-production is supposed to be cheaper than handicraft.
True, but they have to be paid regardless of whether or not the CD sells a copy. This isn't a problem for Britney CDs, but it might be a problem for Joe BluesSinger CDs.

The point? CD profit margins are high, but there's more expenses involved than most people realize. And the big sellers partially make up for flyers taken on unknown talent.

Posted by: Yuda at September 4, 2003 10:56 AM | PERMALINK

The answer to the indusry's woes is simple - learn to do more with less. This is a monster of their own creation. Stop signing Mariah Carey to $100 million contracts. Recruit talent over hype. Substance over style. And get back to developing artists' careers. It took a long time for Neil Young to sell a million units.

Posted by: Hoyt Pollard at September 4, 2003 11:09 AM | PERMALINK

It seems from figures recently released in the UK that a price cutting has stimulated demand for albums (though the market for singles has collapsed completely). I don't know how applicable this is to the US as Apple's store isn't available in the UK and I think there's a lower penetration of broadband internet connections in the UK (35% currently in US - UK predicted to get to 35% in 2008!).

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/music/3158767.stm

Posted by: Patrick at September 4, 2003 11:09 AM | PERMALINK

Yuda-

Yes, but another factor should be that unit sales are not the only profit source for the studios on the original material. Studio royalties, merchandising...a popular CD is an advertisement for the studio itself and everything else it produces.

Many music studios are members of giant media conglomerates. There is little to no 'outsourcing'...all marketing, merchandising, production and management are performed in-house by sister companies. So in some cases it's as if the studio were saying 'I need an extra $.20 per disc to pay myself for translating the sleeve into Spanish, and the distributor, who is me, is marking up shipments to the East Coast by 20%...what can I do?' All the profit margins end up in the same hands eventually, so creating them is inherently dishonest.

Posted by: theperegrine at September 4, 2003 11:10 AM | PERMALINK

This is only the start. DVD 'sharing' has already begun.

Posted by: Tripp at September 4, 2003 11:27 AM | PERMALINK

Actually, as I understand it, Universal is about to be thrown out of OPRC (Organization of Price-gouging Record Companies) for failing to leverage their monopoly.

I don't want to get into a flame war with Yuda, but the numbers provided are in his/her previous post are, frankly, absurd. If record companies were giving $5 to artists, no one would be whining about prices. But they aren't, not even close. $2-3 is one hell of a deal, and the notion that the sleeve designers and writers who do liner copy would get $2 to split is beyond absurd. These people are probably freelancing, and their income is marginal.

I won't argue with the home production cost of 75¢, but what does that have to do with mass production? Any recording company that can't produce a CD with art, liner notes and jewel case for under $1 is grossly incompetent.

$10 retail is probably a fair price. Wholesale? Still way too high. The recording industry has forced consumers to pay for the legendary lifestyles of their coke-snorting executives and pampered no-talent stars whose vapid releases crowd musically noteworthy offerings off the shelves.

Nothing about the recording industry makes sense, especially their pricing policies.

Posted by: Mark Gisleson at September 4, 2003 11:46 AM | PERMALINK

Mark Gisleson:

That analogy was mine, and it was purely theoretical. I'm aware that in reality artists get $1 or less per unit sold, but if I were producing CDs in my living room I'd want to offer them more than that...and the people buying the CDs would probably prefer to pay them more than that as well, if they had a choice.

Yuda, the guy you're flaming, actually posted a link to a site that had a pie-chart based on industry statistics showing the pure profit margin on each CD, between the retailer and the studio, to be about 50%...and the artist royalty was the smallest slice.

Posted by: theperegrine at September 4, 2003 11:51 AM | PERMALINK

Well, it's not too little, too late for me because "too little" suggests that there's some further amount that would be sufficient, and that's no longer the case for me. It's simply too late.

About 1999 or so, something like this probably would have encouraged me to buy more CDs. But the fact that I haven't bought a major label CD in the last three years has nothing to do with pricing and everything to do with the record companies' behavior.

Now, even if they managed to cut CD prices below the actual cost of production (what, price them in mills?) it wouldn't be enough to get me to buy from them.

I'm not downloading their stuff for free, mind you. I've simply stopped listening to it. I get my music from independent sources, typically direct from the artists through CDBaby.com. The music's actually better and nobody's trying to cripple the Internet so they can keep on screwing me.

Bottom line is, as far as I'm concerned, RIAA member companies simply do not exist, and never will again.

Jimmy Hotep

Posted by: Jimmy Hotep at September 4, 2003 12:02 PM | PERMALINK

And I didn't mean to be ambiguous about my [i]ambivalence[/i] earlier.

Whew. An edit function would be really, really nice.

Posted by: theperegrine at September 4, 2003 12:08 PM | PERMALINK

One bit of a pricing reality check for the music industry might be for them to compare their product with another entertainment offering that comes on a disk - movie DVD's.

The DVD has up to 3 hours of high-quality digital sound, plus a similar quantity of full-motion digital video, including special effects, editing, name stars and extras (commentary, deleted scenes etc.). The content comes on a shiny disk nicely packaged with full color graphics. Price: $10 to $20, depending on how hot the movie is.

An audio CD has up to 80 minutes of high-quality digital sound, on a shiny disk nicely packaged with full color graphics. Price: $18.

Hello?

Posted by: jimBOB at September 4, 2003 01:24 PM | PERMALINK

Music sharing isn't the problem. CD distributors are competing with DVD's mainly. People that bought a CD every payday are now buying a DVD. DVD sales have skyrocketed, and the DVD player is one of the most successful media products ever produced.

As long as DVD prices stay around where they are, with a fair amount of discounting keeping new releases around $18-19 and older releases $10-15, I don't think anyone has to worry about DVD sharing (although I have been known to check out DVD's from my public library for nothing).

The music industry wants to force us to keep buying buggy whips long after the invention of the automobile. It just ain't gonna work.

99 cent songs won't work for me, either. Why should I pay full price for a compressed track I have to burn onto a cd myself? Try 25 cents. Then I might be convinced.

Posted by: Jimbo2K3 at September 4, 2003 01:25 PM | PERMALINK

I think a lot of this "price gouging" has to do with the target market for most CDs. Kids and teenagers who do not understand the postponement of satisfaction. You can walk into any major retailer and find 20 to 30 movies (DVDs) priced at around 5-6 dollars a pop. Another 50-60 priced at 10-11 dollars a pop and most movies priced in the 15-20 range. However, these movies have already gouged the teens at the silver screen by charging them 8-9 bucks...the second time around on DVDs they are trying to sell to their parents who are more price sensitive and do not consider most music as must have and pretty much any movie as "must see". We see this in a variety of other things to a lesser degree (clothes, shoes...)
Not that any of it makes it "fair".
Anyway, it is interesting that music piracy happens in their most important market...hence demanding a response from the music industry.

Posted by: sam jackson at September 4, 2003 01:33 PM | PERMALINK

Why is this idea so prevalent that big labels will do better by stocking "quality" music over schlock? Major lables, when they produce schlock like Britney Spears, are basically engaging in high-risk gambling: While they could take on quality artists--say ten, with a guaranteed move of about 100,000 units for each at a reasonable profit per unit, it's a much better deal to put out one artist who moves 10 million, even if your other nine artists sink, because you're moving each unit at an insane price.

The real trick to it is that this high-risk gambling is actually no-risk gambling, due to a complex structure established between record companies and radio stations. A major label pays an indie, who then promotes a single to a radio station. A single only gets to the radio through an indie, and only through indies do single get to the radio.

If pop music fans are basically indiscriminate, and I'd say that's pretty true, then a major label can pay its star's way to the top of the charts. The real instigator of CD price inflation was the death of the DJ, IMHO.

Posted by: Kriston at September 4, 2003 02:12 PM | PERMALINK

Kriston-

Because your analogy is apt...it's like high-stakes gambling. If the gamble fails, the studio has to make up the tens to hundreds of millions it wasted on one artist by increasing profits, and prices, elsewhere. Usually on other high-stake gambles, which could then fail...

There are people who day-trade on the market, and there are people who buy blue-chip and wait it out for a couple of decades. You don't see as many blue-chip investors jumping out of high-rise office windows.

Posted by: theperegrine at September 4, 2003 02:19 PM | PERMALINK

cont-

Your observation about pop fans and the degree of control the music industry has over demand may be somewhat true, but the public is fickle, and I can think of half a dozen major label failures in the last year alone off the top of my head.

They can put it out there, they can make sure it's the only thing getting broadcast on the radio, but they can't force the public to buy it.

Posted by: theperegrine at September 4, 2003 02:24 PM | PERMALINK

Has anyone noticed that DVD's are ridiculously overpriced? :)

Posted by: Tom Burka at September 4, 2003 02:25 PM | PERMALINK

If the gamble fails, the studio has to make up the tens to hundreds of millions it wasted on one artist by increasing profits, and prices, elsewhere.

theperegrine, I'm with you hear. Major labels gamble on the big stars they put forth and sell all the units they move by all their artists at really high prices, so even a big failure isn't ruinous like true high-risk gambling.

I think that the labels and Big Music (Clear Channel, retailers) have come up with a system that nearly guarantees that big successes are sure to come from the big labels' table, even if all the big labels' hands don't turn into stars.

Posted by: Kriston at September 4, 2003 03:05 PM | PERMALINK

Oops! "Here," not "hear"!

Posted by: Kriston at September 4, 2003 03:06 PM | PERMALINK

As long as DVD prices stay around where they are, with a fair amount of discounting keeping new releases around $18-19 and older releases $10-15, I don't think anyone has to worry about DVD sharing

The sharing of high-quality, movie-length video over the internet isn't really feasible yet because of the multi-gigabyte file sizes involved and the relative slowness of even broadband connections. But 5 years from now it may be common.

And there's already a product that makes perfect DVD copies, and that the MPAA seems to be rather worried about.

Posted by: Don P at September 4, 2003 03:52 PM | PERMALINK

I remember the transition from LPs to CDs.

At the time I was very annoyed that vinyl albums that cost $7 were selling for $15 in CD form.

For the first two years I heard the 'explanation' was the fact that CD production was 'ramping up' (oh there are only a few plants in Germany and Japan that produce these 'exotic' CDs).

But then I noticed that the price never came down.

Payback is a ...

Posted by: Bram at September 4, 2003 04:18 PM | PERMALINK

It doesn't seem to have occurred to the RIAA, etc., that maybe the economy might have something to do with people not buying CDs? Like people might want to buy a few meals instead of that shiny new disc from Britney?

Posted by: Mirele at September 4, 2003 05:39 PM | PERMALINK

I haven't read through so maybe somebody has said this already but if they had done this a couple years ago it would have worked. And more like 50%

Posted by: Wes at September 4, 2003 09:05 PM | PERMALINK

I used to work as a graphic designer doing CD covers. I sure never got a cent of royalties, I just got paid by the hour, and after my low salary and 60-80 hour weeks, I finally figured I was making less than minimum wage. So I quit that job. But one thing I noticed, the more money spent on CD cover production costs, the more the music sucked.

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