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September 02, 2003

POSTWAR IRAQ....It seems like every few days for the past month I've heard about yet another administration proposal to "finally" get the UN involved in Iraq. The latest one was announced today, and this time it's apparently being driven by the military:

A senior administration official said that Marine Gen. Peter Pace, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had recently begun lobbying key members of the administration to support a U.N. resolution. The official added that the Joint Chiefs of Staff have become "much more interested in this than before," because they know a new resolution is necessary for them to attract new peacekeeping forces to Iraq.

Yeah, I'll bet they're more interested than before. I wonder why?

I suppose this is good news, since at some point even the Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld axis has to listen to the commanders on the ground when they tell them that things aren't going so well. The problem is that it's hard to feel optimistic about the success of this initiative. After the events and bad blood of the past year, there's going to be a ton of resistance to getting the UN involved from several key countries — some justified and some just out of pique. It's not easy to see a compromise that will satisfy both the international community's desire for some level of genuine control and the Bush administration's fetish for total control.

And while we're on the subject of postwar Iraq, if you want to know why we were so badly prepared as events unfolded, check out Jason Vest's article in The American Prospect from last week:

As images of the bombed United Nations headquarters in Baghdad appeared on television last week, my thoughts turned to a conversation I had with a very senior national-security official (a political appointee with no military experience, not a career bureaucrat) prior to the invasion of Iraq. He earnestly told me that after Saddam Hussein's fall, Americans would be welcomed in Iraq, and not with a fleeting shower of goodwill but with a "deluge" of "rose water and flowers" that would last in perpetuity. Ahmad Chalabi and American advisers would set up shop to oversee a transition spearheaded by scores of returning Iraqi exiles, who would transform Iraq into a profitable, oil-pumping society. After all, the official said, this wasn't Afghanistan, where there were lots of religious and tribal differences among the local populations. We wouldn't need to stay long, and we certainly wouldn't need the United Nations -- which, as far as this official and his compatriots were concerned, could go screw itself. The United States could handle it all. Within a year, he said, Iraq would be a beacon of democracy and stability in the Middle East.

Read the whole thing, which explains how the army wrote a report last October that predicted pretty much everything that ended up happening in postwar Iraq, and how the administration's hawks simply scorned and ignored it. Rose water and flowers indeed.

Posted by Kevin Drum at September 2, 2003 08:39 PM | TrackBack


Comments

See? See? The military is just objectively pro- ... something.

Posted by: squiddy at September 2, 2003 09:01 PM | PERMALINK

Not to totally steer the topic of conversation away from the 483th post on the failure of post-war predictions and planning-- but if Iraq was going to be a cakewalk compared to Afghanistan (as posited by the nameless security official), why are there only 10,000 troops in Afghanistan?

Well, it's best not to think such thoughts. After all, what does "resurgent" really mean?
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20030902_1223.html

Posted by: Norbizness at September 2, 2003 09:03 PM | PERMALINK

I think that we should keep up the pressure on the cheese-eating surrender monkeys and the worthless U.N. We've got them on the ropes, and now is not the time to get squishy.

Posted by: zizka at September 2, 2003 09:05 PM | PERMALINK

I'm not sure bringing in the UN will help anymore. We may look back at this period and decide that we should have just set elections and got out. I don't think it's going to get better

Posted by: alias at September 2, 2003 09:10 PM | PERMALINK

Who does 'very senior national-security official' translate to other than Rice and Rumsfeld in journalistese?

Posted by: NBarnes at September 2, 2003 09:19 PM | PERMALINK

It's possible I'm a tad biased, but...it'll be a cold day in hell before George Bush changes his mind on Iraq. And even then, he'll only do it if Karl Rove has been painting pictures of rampaging Democrats taking control of the entire country in 2004. And even then, only if he has a way out where he can believe he wasn't wrong in the first place.

Not because Bush can't admit error (although he's always seemed a prideful man) but because Bush posses a righteous certainty that his course is the correct one....and his most trusted advisors share that certainty. Facts, data, expert opinion.....if they disagree with the Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld view of Iraq (or damn near anything, really) they are, by definition, wrong.

Posted by: Morat at September 2, 2003 09:32 PM | PERMALINK

And why this wasn't completely obvious before the war to everyone will apparently forever remain a mystery to me.

Posted by: John at September 2, 2003 10:09 PM | PERMALINK

"...will apparently forever remain a mystery to me."

You're darned right it will, since Bush signed that Exec. Order back in Nov. 2001 putting presidential archives off-limits for 50 years or so. At the time I thought he was doing that so his Dad's and Reagan's role in Iran-Contra would be inaccessible, but it sure is turning out to be convenient for this period as well.

Posted by: Linkmeister at September 2, 2003 10:45 PM | PERMALINK

a "deluge" of "rose water and flowers"

The triumph of faith-based foreign policy. We also can see the fruits of a faith-based economic policy. We may have to wait a few years to see the full effects of faith-based environmental policy, but the early returns are not encouraging...

Posted by: bad Jim at September 2, 2003 10:49 PM | PERMALINK

nbarnes, my take is that it could also be wolfowitz or perle, and it's not impossible to imagine feith. that about exhausts the list, though, and certainly any one of these characters could have held the ascribed sentiments....

Posted by: howard at September 2, 2003 11:07 PM | PERMALINK

How to make friends

"Washington - The United States on Tuesday sneered at plans by four European countries to create an autonomous European military command headquarters near Brussels separate from Nato, referring to the idea's proponents as "chocolate makers".

In unusually blunt language that drew surprised gasps from reporters, State Department spokesperson Richard Boucher scoffed at Belgium, France, Germany and Luxembourg for continuing to support the proposal that they first introduced at a mini-summit in April.

He described the April meeting as one between "four countries that got together and had a little bitty summit" and then referred to them collectively as "the chocolate makers". "

Absolutely NO coverage in CNN, NYT, the Post

Posted by: MikeN at September 2, 2003 11:19 PM | PERMALINK

MikeN --

What are you quoting from?

Posted by: Michael at September 2, 2003 11:54 PM | PERMALINK

U.S. Sneers at Chocolate Makers regarding an E.U. meeting on setting up a European military.

'tis easier to Google than to ask.

Posted by: bad Jim at September 3, 2003 12:07 AM | PERMALINK

More chocolate?

Steve Gilliard had it originally. This was his link.

Posted by: bad Jim at September 3, 2003 12:12 AM | PERMALINK

'Chocolate makers'? Goodness, that's obscene. Did that man forget, for a moment, that they're dealing with international diplomacy and *not* domestic political discourse? Those comments are quite inappropriate, especially given that the US tends to have a hissy-fit when others make remarks that could be construed as insulting (the 'Bush Moron!' saga springs to mind. I very much doubt you'll see a similar outcome here).

Beyond that, it's also disappointing to see such laziness on the part of the State Department. Part of the charm of international diplomacy is the ability to sound urbane and non-combative when you're really hauling someone over the coals.

Posted by: Downunder at September 3, 2003 03:26 AM | PERMALINK

Josh Marshall thinks the thieves may at last have begun to fall out. The generals -- Abizaid and Myers, as well as Pace -- want to increase and internationalize the occupation force, and so have begun a Powell-assisted end run around Rumsfeld, who is adamantly against putting more boots (U.S. or otherwise) on the ground. Meanwhile, at least some "neocons" (my quotation marks, since to me it's not clear whether Marshall means inside neocons like Wolfowitz and Feith, or outside neocons like Kristol, or both) also want a larger force, but of U.S. troops only, so they're pushing for a larger army, a course which is anathema to Rumsfeld -- and a budget-buster.

Pass the popcorn, please.

Posted by: penalcolony at September 3, 2003 05:38 AM | PERMALINK

Boucher had been my favorite member of this administration: urbane and non-combative usually pretty much defines him. I have to think this was carefully scripted and perhaps a move by State to show their macho credentials to Bush and the Rumsfeld faction. IMO it's a bad, stupid, and offensive misjudgement. I'll settle for those three adjectives.

Posted by: John Isbell at September 3, 2003 07:47 AM | PERMALINK

Can Leadership Get Any Worse?

We are finally going to the U.N., and to countries such as France and Germany, to request assistance and share the burden of Iraq. Fairly. One wonders why this hasn't been done earlier.

"The effort to secure international assistance is "a tacit admission that we don't have the forces there to get the job done," Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said Wednesday on ABC's "Good Morning America." "If we don't turn things around in the next few months we are facing a very serious long-term, problem.""

Why do I characterize this as a failure of leadership? Simple. If Senator McCain's statement is to be taken at face value, we now seem to be negotiating in a position of weakness. This is a great turnabout from the mood and stature around the world we wielded after 9/11. Then, we could ask, even demand, in negotiations with a position of strength, for nations to help us in a fair and equitable way. Win-win for everyone, and most of all for us, because we're driving events.

Now, on the other hand, we're being driven by events. Since in the initial war buildup we played hardball with negotiations, and overestimated our strength, we in the end poisoned some of those relationships, and made it clear we could go it on our own, with the help of a few traditional friends (not to mention a number of "rogue's gallery" allies). We scorned the very idea of needing the help of "Old Europe", or the U.N., and then marched into war in arrogance and lack of full preparation.

The situation has changed. As Senator McCain states it, if we don't get help now, "we are facing a serious, long-term problem". This almost sounds like a bailout. In other words, we are becoming dependent on assistance now, and everyone knows it. This is not, and no longer, negotiating in strength. It is weakness. Looking at the whole picture, from the beginning of the war process until now, it is incompetence and bungling.

Whoever was driving this process really thought they were the smartest and baddest people in the world. The only ones who understood the rod and mantle of power. What a joke. They have ruined the highest state of global solidarity in memory, post-9/11 sentiment, and fumbled negotiations for a very expensive and perilous war that could have been easily handled otherwise.

They have fumbled away great opportunities, and, like sorceror's apprentices, caused havoc with power. Since the sane individual doesn't agree with their "power-or-else" philosophy, and may indeed believe that ordered and respectful relations are the keys to world peace and prosperity, nothing in the overall picture has been irretrievably lost. Only some time, and we know there are those who are set on striking us. To them, we must turn our attention, along with our freedom-loving and peace-nurturing friends and allies around the globe.

Peace.

Posted by: freelixir at September 3, 2003 09:29 AM | PERMALINK

Billmon covers some of the same points made by freelixir here:

http://billmon.org/archives/000492.html

The money quote?

"Power, a good friend recently remarked, is an odd thing -- it's most impressive when it isn't being used. A wise hegemon goes to great lengths to conceal the true extent of its power. It always leaves something in the tool kit, so to speak, so that enemies and allies alike can never be sure exactly what's in there.

But the Bush Administration has let the cat out of the bag. It has exposed to the world the limits of U.S. military power -- both ithe size of the forces (divisions, troops) and the relative ineffectiveness of those forces on a complex social and political battlefield like the one America faces in Iraq and throughout the Middle East.

Even more to the point, Bush has signaled that the financial and political burdens of unilateralism are simply too great for any U.S. administration to carry for long. Forced to choose between greater mobilization at home (more troops, less tax cuts) and compromise abroad, Bush appears to have opted for the latter.

These events no doubt will be noted, and closely studied, by friend and foe alike."

Posted by: howard at September 3, 2003 09:59 AM | PERMALINK

American voters should go back to the last 2 presidents that took the usa to war ,LBJ IN VIETNAM,GEORGE BUSH SENIOR GULF WAR ,GEORGE W BUSH,IRAQ and make a promise to themselves"never put another texan in the whitehouse"least of all these awol warriors aka as the neocons,they want war as long as they don't have to go and fight,real American heroes,who was it that said "if politicians had to go to the front lines in time of war,we would never have one"

Posted by: jackool at September 3, 2003 11:11 AM | PERMALINK

No way should the UN get involved in Iraq. The US got itself in this mess and should be left alone to get out of it. UN involvement would only confer retrospective legitimacy on the war, and encourage the US to attempt more disastrous interventions in other countries. After all, why should the US resist its urges to take over another country if it knows that the UN is going to end up footing the bill and taking the heat? Kofi Annan would be made if he let the UN degenerate into the US's clean-up service.

Posted by: Carl Wernerhoff at September 3, 2003 06:43 PM | PERMALINK

Can someone please tell me what zizka was saying? I don't uderstand his/her meaning.

Posted by: Matt at September 4, 2003 07:30 AM | PERMALINK

Perceptions do not limit reality.

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If you would be unloved and forgotten, be reasonable.

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Newness is relative.

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