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August 21, 2003

FLYPAPER....Dan Drezner takes on the "flypaper theory" today. When President Bush said "Bring 'em on," was it really part of a devious plan to attract hordes of terrorists to Iraq so they'd all be in one convenient place where we could smash them to bits?

Dan isn't buying. Frankly, though, I think he's too nice about it: this "theory" is so cockamamie that it belongs with the tin foil hat brigade. I have no love for neocon foreign policy, but even I don't think they're so cynical and amoral as to concoct a strategy deliberately designed to radically destabilize a country and get lots of U.S. troops killed — a strategy, I might add, that even a cursory glance at birthrates tells you would never work anyway. They can grow 'em faster than we can kill 'em.

It's time for everyone to grow up. The UN bombing in Baghdad doesn't necessarily mean that Iraq is on the verge of a meltdown, but it sure isn't good news either. The Bush administration better have a better plan for handling it than what they've shown so far.

Posted by Kevin Drum at August 21, 2003 10:18 AM | TrackBack


Comments

it's a shame that a smart guy like dan drezner had to use up synapses on something as lame as the "flypaper" theory, which is only the latest in a long line of mindless pieces of bush-enabling that circulate the blogosphere.

but kevin, really, sometimes you're just too nice. on what basis do you think that people with the life histories of bush, cheney, and rumsfeld are capable of coming up with a new plan? Everything about their biographies screams that these are people who, in their own minds, have never made a mistake (with the exception that bush has acknowledged that he shouldn't have traded Sammy Sosa).

Posted by: howard at August 21, 2003 10:56 AM | PERMALINK

The "flypaper theory" wasn't from Bush but Bush henchman Wolfowitz, who said that Iraq would be a "magnet" for terrorist when being question about the lack of WMD from congressinal members.

Wolfowitz says that there were other reasons for invading Iraq other than WMD. Wolfie means what he says when gave us the "flypaper theory" saying in effect that terrorist would be drawn to Iraq and not to American -- a stupid theory by any standard. And Bush's "bring em on" was inexcusable for an man who was AWOL during the Vietnam war and is speaking without a shred of compassion for those who do have to fight and those how have already died in this war where there appear to be NO WMD.

If you had a son or daugher in this war, I think you would feel a lot differently Kevin.

Posted by: Cheryl at August 21, 2003 11:30 AM | PERMALINK

Well, the "flypaper" thesis was not invented by the left to smear the right. Tacitus, a fairly moderate Republican gives credence to this flypaper theory as well as several other right wing personalities. Check it out.

Posted by: Adam in MA at August 21, 2003 11:37 AM | PERMALINK

Look I think it's a crazy theory and bad for long-term peace, even for the Big Empire itself, but there is an element of truth to it. If Iraq is turned into a war zone then who cares really, no Democrats are making a campaign issue out of the safety of Iraqis. They don't do it because Americans don't care. Americans don't care because people really just don't care, it's totally natural.

So the pro-war side is basically shifting their argument, trying to find a way of saying "we are being successful" at something. The problem with shifting the strategy like this is you end up stuck in the country forever, while your soldiers are dying, and then bus bombs are going off here in the US. If anything is a success, then there can be plenty of death in Iraq and here at home before we change direction.

Posted by: Eric M at August 21, 2003 11:40 AM | PERMALINK

The flypaper theory is correct: the U.S. has found itself stuck in Iraq, and our soldiers are the flies.

Posted by: nameless at August 21, 2003 11:41 AM | PERMALINK

"Okay, boys, great job letting them run the opening kickoff back for a touchdown. Our potent offense works much better in a shootout, so by giving them a big lead, we have them right where we want them!"

"Good thing I flunked that exam. Now the professor will have low expectations, and I'll have a much easier time getting an A in the class!"

"Our plan to let Iraq descend into a chaotic, hostile occupied territory plagued by terrorists is working. We will draw the terrorists in and then fight them on our terms!"

Great moments in rationalization and self-delusion.

Posted by: Abu Aardvark at August 21, 2003 11:58 AM | PERMALINK

Look, I'm looking hard at the roll of aluminum foil. I pretty much predicted prewar, and hassled my Congressional delegation about the prospect of it, that the US was effectively moving 150,000 Americans to the homeland of zealotry and nationalist zealotry. Now, I certainly think the neocons running this thing have proven themselves to be grossly incompetent, incompentent enough to stand trial for war crimes, but can they not have realized this "bait" effect would happen? After all, killing a few GIs in Baghdad works off a big head of steam.

Yes, I have actually started to consider that some in the Pentagon are such cold-blooded ideologues that they could rumble us into using vulnerable soldiers as decoys, unwitting sacrfices for a better world. Theirs. Jeeesus.

Posted by: Brian C.B. at August 21, 2003 12:09 PM | PERMALINK

The best thing about the flypaper theory is that it's promoted by people (like Sully) who argue that it doesn't really matter if we find WMD because the humanitarian case for the invasion is sufficient. I guess the Iraqi people are much better off now that their country has become the top tourist destination for jihadists everywhere.

Posted by: mrmoa at August 21, 2003 12:10 PM | PERMALINK

Brian C.B., the Pentagon anticipated that we would be down to 30,000 - 50,000 troops in iraq by now, about as delusional an analysis as you could ask for, but therefore, they didn't expect 150,000 troops to be targets because: a.) they didn't expect to have 150,000 troops there; and b.) the reason they thought they only needed 30K - 50K is that they didn't anticipate any of the easy-to-anticipate reactions after the war....

Posted by: howard at August 21, 2003 12:27 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin,

Yes, the flypaper theory is truly out there. But so were pre-emptive unilateralism, reverse dominos, the city on the hill, and all the other screwball notions these folks have come up with. How come it took 'til now for the Drezners of the world to catch on that Thinking Out Of The Box about foreign policy is more often completely nuts than brilliantly audacious?

Sometime in the late 21st Century, Barbara Tuchman will be cloned from some surviving genetic material. She will write an eloquent history of the US this spring. It will be called The March of Folly: Part Deux.

Posted by: tristero at August 21, 2003 12:44 PM | PERMALINK

The flypaper theory and the 'bring 'em on' statement is just one more example of the Bush Administration's wishful thinking.

They genuinely believed that if and when the terrorists gathered in Iraq, we would be able to wipe 'em out.

Add this latest stupidity to the list, that already includes such Bushie delusions as "they will welcome us in the streets in Baghdad, we will spread democracy around the Middle East like tumbling dominoes," etc.

Posted by: John at August 21, 2003 01:44 PM | PERMALINK

Pitt to Parliament… (1778): "My lords, if I were an American as
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never lay down my arms- never, never, never".

Posted by: Simple Simon at August 21, 2003 03:12 PM | PERMALINK

The neocons and the Bush administration predicted that Americans would not have to occupy Iraq. We are. They predicted that we would find WMD. We haven't. They predicted that they would capture Hussein. It has yet to happen.

So far, the only thing they have gotten right is that the war would be over quickly, not a difficult prediction considering that UN weapons inspectors had been gathering intelligence in the country for years.

Face it: the US is going to be there a very long time and it is going to require massive troops deployements to do the kind of nation-building that Bush promised not to do. Better get used to more bombings and deaths because this isn't going to go away anytime soon.

Posted by: billyblazer at August 21, 2003 03:43 PM | PERMALINK

As others have pointed out the flypaper argument is just another attempt to sell/rationalize the invasion and occupation while obfuscating its true purpose.

From the neocons point of view everything has gone about as well as they could have hoped. They corrected the two biggest problems left over from Gulf War I - Saddam Hussein has been removed and the US has established a large military presence in the Middle East that does not depend on the kindness of strangers, ahem, Saudis.

The neocons did not and do not care one bit about the Iraqis. They see current US caualties as acceptable compared to the long term strategic advantages. After an acceptable period of time they will do what all other foreign occupiers have done - they will establish a local gov't that will do whatever is necessary to establish security and then move our troops to fortified bases where the troops will be safe but available to maintain said gov't in power if need be and to project US power across Iraq's borders when necessary.

As for the jihadists, the neocons believe that they cannot truly threaten US interests without atomic weapons. They are willing to accept the risk of future conventional 9/11's in exchange for the strategic advantage of permanent US bases in Iraq.

That is the cold calculation of the neocons. Everything else is a smokescreen.

Posted by: Mark S. at August 21, 2003 04:39 PM | PERMALINK

On behalf of earnest right wing bloggers everywhere, and in a shameless bit of self-promotion, I link to my reaction to the flypaper theory from way back on July 9. I also link to another righty, Belgravia Dispatch, from the same era.

I am not sure the two of us are ready to stand against Sullivan and Reynolds, but add Drezner to the mix and, uhh, bring 'em on.

Posted by: Tom Maguire at August 21, 2003 07:21 PM | PERMALINK

OK, let me defend the essential truth of the flypaper theory, and why it beats the alternative.

It's basically a large version of the Israel move to re-occupy the West Bank/Gaza. The people at home see that you are out killing the enemies.

The liberals have said no, let's not go in there, lets keep the same policies which make them hate us, but stay in our borders and protect ourselves, like turtles. Bush says, no let's keep the policies which make them hate us, but attack them pre-emptively for having evil thoughts.

To a US citizen, Bush wins. He kills them before they get to us. The liberals lose because they don't change the core issues, the root causes (ha so there). The Laborites were all for building the wall between Israel/Palestine. The liberals were all for the war with Iraq.

Flypaper basically wins because the liberals haven't got the guts to go far enough, and solve the real problems.

Posted by: Eric M at August 21, 2003 08:54 PM | PERMALINK

Donald Rumsfeld's war objectives, as of March 21, included (third of eight):

"to search for, capture, drive out terrorists who have found safe harbor in Iraq."

Would flypaper devotees care to explain whether Rumsfeld was lying then? Or have our objectives quietly changed, and why have the American people not been told?

Or, have we been told? I haven't checked every transcript of every Sunday talk show.

I don't think "strategic deception" will be persuasive, BTW. I'm only guessing, but I doubt that a few words from Rumsfeld to Russert explaining that the Administration views this influx of terrorists as a golden opportunity would prompt the jihadist equivalent of "D'oh", followed by a rapid retreat by same.

Although if we could pacify the country that easily, it might be worth a try.

Posted by: Tom Maguire at August 22, 2003 05:15 AM | PERMALINK

Tom said: "Would flypaper devotees care to explain whether Rumsfeld was lying then?"

Every public statement is a strategic deception (read: lie).

To expand on my above comments, in the neocon view Mohammed has replaced Marx and the Iraq operation is part of a larger strategy to reposition our global (read: imperial) force structure to meet the new threat.

It is a long term losing strategy as history has shown over and over. We don't have the economic ability to continue it much longer (and which will become clear sooner than most think). One of the saddest aspects is that the jihadists will see our economic plight as their doing rather than our own folly (even more sadly, many of us will see it the same way).

Posted by: Mark S. at August 22, 2003 05:44 AM | PERMALINK

"but even I don't think they're so cynical and amoral as to concoct a strategy deliberately designed to radically destabilize a country and get lots of U.S. troops killed — a strategy, I might add, that even a cursory glance at birthrates tells you would never work anyway. They can grow 'em faster than we can kill 'em."

Wow. A STUNNINGLY racist statement.

His use of the term "birthrate" can only apply to Arabs - not to terrorists, who aren't "born". So who are those people that will kill all those "US troops"? Not terrorists, apparently. But rather Arabs. We've heard a lot from the left that we shouldn't demonize all Arabs as terrorists. Well, lefties, perhaps you should look at one of your own first.

Posted by: Al at August 22, 2003 07:13 AM | PERMALINK

Eric,
I've tried really hard, and I just don't get what you mean.

To this 'liberal' (I don't think of myself that way, but you'd probably label me as one) it is not that I don't have the guts to fix the real problems of the middle east. I honestly think that at this time it is not possible to fix those problems.

This liberal does not think that every world problem can be fixed.

Posted by: Tripp at August 22, 2003 07:37 AM | PERMALINK

I think the flypaper theory is an attempt to come up with a rationale for a war that didn't have a very good one to begin with. I don't think it's necessarily a tinfoil hat thing, it's just some attempt to come up with a reason for it if you don't buy WMD, human rights ("Saddam was a bad guy!"), it's all about oil, etc.

(If it was all about oil you'd think we'd do a damn better job protecting the pipelines, etc.)

Posted by: dude at August 22, 2003 08:36 AM | PERMALINK

Well to step back a bit: I've always felt that the major motivation behind attacking Iraq was fear and anger at Sept 11. Revenge for Sept 11 on some Muslims, fear of future Sept 11s.

It's true that anybody who cites this so-called flypaper theory is throwing the humanitarian condition of the Iraqis out the window. But I never felt like that case was very important to anybody except certain liberal columnists.

But as long as we were strangling Iraq with sanctions, keeping our army in Saudi Arabia to bomb them, giving billions to Israel while they killed off the Palestinians, and putting our oil interests over the people -- as long as we were doing all that, we were generating enough hate that we were going to get attacked. All this was going on under Clinton and under Bush 2.

Even the peace candidate Howard Dean proposed to do the same, so he would have generated plenty of hate and attacks on the US. That's why Dean will lose to Bush.

Posted by: Eric M at August 22, 2003 09:56 AM | PERMALINK

So Iraq becomes a war zone. So what? Afghanistan is still a shit-hole, worse in some places than before we took over. Who cares? Who is making this a campaign issue? nobody.

Posted by: Eric M at August 22, 2003 10:09 AM | PERMALINK

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