Calpundit: Saddam's Nukes

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August 13, 2003

SADDAM'S NUKES....Back in October, as you may recall, the administration put together a National Intelligence Estimate that concluded that Saddam Hussein was actively reconstituting his nuclear program. Of course, there was also a now-infamous footnote saying that there was some disagreement over this, but the Bush administration has argued that the disagreement was from only one source, the State Department, and everyone else signed on to this conclusion.

In particular, that conclusion was supported by the Department of Energy, considered the primary expert in technical issues regarding nuclear proliferation. Today, though, via Josh Marshall, comes an article by Paul Sperry of WorldNetDaily suggesting that DOE wasn't really on board after all:

Thomas Rider, as acting director of Energy's intelligence office, overruled senior intelligence officers on his staff in voting for the position at a National Foreign Intelligence Board meeting at CIA headquarters last September.

...."Senior folks in the office wanted to join INR [the State Department's intelligence arm] on the footnote, and even wanted to write it with them, so the footnote would have read, 'Energy and INR,'" one official said. "But when they were arguing about it at the pre-brief, Rider told them to 'shut up and sit down.'"

...."The debate over whether Baghdad was trying to acquire nuclear weapons pretty much came down to the [aluminum] tubes," said one Energy official. "Yet even though DOE voted against the tubes, Rider still argued that the program was being reconstituted."

"But if the tubes are out, and if the African search for uranium is out, and if all the construction activity at the old nuclear sites turned out to be nothing, then what's the evidence?" he said. "It was just taken on faith."

And Rider's reward for shutting up his technical analysts and playing along? A $13,000 bonus in February "for exceeding performance expectations as head of the intelligence office."

That makes sense only if "performance" was defined as supporting the president's views, as opposed to actually providing intelligence that was correct. Maybe somebody should ask for that bonus back.

POSTSCRIPT: It's worth mentioning, perhaps, that unlike Josh I do check out WorldNetDaily periodically. Yeah, it's run by a nutball, but every once in a while they come up with something interesting. This is a case in point.

UPDATE: In comments, Apostropher gets right to the heart of the matter:

It's the little details that are the most damning here. Rider served as acting intelligence chief for nine months, stepping down in February just before the invasion was launched. Prior to that, he was an HR manager with no intelligence experience. So, he was installed as intelligence chief at the beginning of Bush's march to war, overruled the guys who have spent their careers assessing these sorts of situations and knew the administration's nuke claims were pure crap, got paid twenty large, and then stepped down once the war was a fait accompli.

Hmmm, maybe he should start writing this blog....

Posted by Kevin Drum at August 13, 2003 03:25 PM | TrackBack

Comments

gimme that ol' time faith-based intelligence...

Posted by: crikey at August 13, 2003 03:29 PM | PERMALINK

Whoa, whoa, whoa, last I heard the Niger uranium flap was about the fact that it would be difficult or impossible for Niger to actually smuggle yellowcake to Saddam because of the 'safeguards'. It was argued that Saddam could not possibly succeed in getting uranium. When did that turn into Saddam wasn't trying to get uranium: "...the African search for uranium is out."?

Posted by: Sebastian Holsclaw at August 13, 2003 04:26 PM | PERMALINK

Sebastian: this confusion between Africa and Niger is understandable, but in fact Tenet said very straightforwardly that the *African* uranium claim was weak and shouldn't have been in the SOTU. Remember, the SOTU said Africa, not Niger, and everyone has now agreed that shouldn't have been there.

Posted by: Kevin Drum at August 13, 2003 04:30 PM | PERMALINK

Good move, Sebastian. Bring up the uranium, so as to distract attention from a more interesting new development, that a bonus to a public servant may
have served to buy his acquiescence.

Didn't the Bushies move to have "performance bonuses" allowed?

Gosh, I'm shocked.

First we find out that TSA employees, with fewer protections than most Federal employees, are being threatened to keep them quiet and not squeal on misconduct and incompetence of the administrators.

Now we find that a newly-allowed 'bonus' was allowed to sway someone's opinion.

I wonder if there was also a 'stick', to punish the guy if he didn't play along.

Posted by: Jon H at August 13, 2003 05:04 PM | PERMALINK

I never really bought in to the Krugman/Fermi theory of "nuclear fission" anyways.

Posted by: Don Luskin at August 13, 2003 05:11 PM | PERMALINK

Now *that* was funny, Don. My compliments to you.

Posted by: PaulB at August 13, 2003 05:53 PM | PERMALINK

It's the little details that are the most damning here. Rider served as acting intelligence chief for nine months, stepping down in February just before the invasion was launched. Prior to that, he was an HR manager with no intelligence experience. So, he was installed as intelligence chief at the beginning of Bush's march to war, overruled the guys who have spent their careers assessing these sorts of situations and knew the administration's nuke claims were pure crap, got paid twenty large, and then stepped down once the war was a fait accompli.

This stinks to high heaven.

Posted by: apostropher at August 13, 2003 06:01 PM | PERMALINK

"Yeah, it's run by a nutball, but every once in a while they come up with something interesting."

Yep - it's a credible source only when they come up with something with which to attack Bush. Otherwise it's a nutball site...

Posted by: Al at August 13, 2003 07:47 PM | PERMALINK

Instead of having to read WorldNet {shudder}, you can always check out the excellent ConWebWatch, and let Terry Krepel (we appreciate the sacrifice you're making man!) wade through the trash for you.

He has an interesting article on Paul Sperry, the author of this recent article

Click Here

Posted by: Dazir at August 13, 2003 07:55 PM | PERMALINK

AL,

I've reread this string, beginning with the Josh Marshall link. Can't find anyone saying this is a "crebible" source, just interesting. There are those saying this stinks. Perhaps a rush to judgement, but it looks bad. The facts will be easy to check out unless bodies start missing. A fair and balanced look by a news organization should be able to get the info.

Did this guy get a bonus? (Well, so did the FBI HQ guy who squelched the Mousaouai warrant!) Did this guy get reassigned shortly afterward? Who are these guys in DOE who disagreed?

These are facts that can be checked. That is what TPM suggested.

It doesn't look right to me, I must confess. I expect Bushies to require a higher fee for their services than a mere $20,500.

Posted by: MacMan at August 13, 2003 09:27 PM | PERMALINK

"faith-based intelligence" Do you mean faith in man, God, or neither, Crikey?

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