August 09, 2003
CALIFORNIA: STILL BETTER THAN TEXAS....Comrade Max says the California economy is doing just fine. Our growth rate is higher than average, personal income is OK, and jobs aren't leaving the state.
This is all basically correct. We do have plenty of problems in
California — workers comp is broken, the tax system is a mess, and our
legislature is so polarized that we literally can't pass a budget, let
alone a good one — but at the same time the economy is still
fundamentally sound. When the tech sector picks up, California will be
hopping again.
In the meantime, enjoy the show and hope — really hope — that
when it comes to politics California is not leading the nation, as it so
often does. You may think that national politics is awfully partisan
and dirty these days, but it's nothing compared to California. If
California partisanship spreads to Washington, you're all going to find
yourselves pining away for the relative civility of the Clinton
impeachment years.
Posted by Kevin Drum at August 9, 2003 11:35 AM
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That's the odd thing about, say, Schwarzenegger's proposed fiscal
solution: how much more economic development does California need? We
have a similar discussion in Alaska, and the prevailing strategy (such
as it is) is to grow the economy, thus floating the fiscal boat. The
problem, of course, is that Alaska has no broad-based taxes that link
state's fiscal health to economic growth.
As absurd as "grow your way out" sounds in Alaska, how much moreso in
California? If the economy was going backwards, then it would the
solution to an obvious problem. Since that's not the case, a different
solution is called for.
If California partisanship spreads to Washington, you're all going
to find yourselves pining away for the relative civility of the Clinton
impeachment years.
Um, how exactly is Washington not partisan?
When the tech sector picks up, California will be hopping again.
When?! Did people sit around in Pittsburgh saying, "you know, when
steel picks up, this place is going to be hopping again. After all, the
economy will always need steel". Yeah, sure, but nothing says that steel
can't come from Japan, Brazil, South Korea etc.
And likewise nothing says future high tech has to come from Silicon
Valley. We all know the manufacturing is in Asia. The lame-o IT jobs
that call themselves programming but don't really require much
creativity have moved to India. I imagine very soon India will make a
play for routine web programming (vanilla HTML and ECMAScript) --- and
interesting would be them also building up Flash competence. Meanwhile
it gets easier everyday to build interesting software via people spread
around the world --- and as IBM proved with POWER4, that's just as
feasible for large HW projects.
The one aspect of high-tech where California had a chance of picking
up after HW/SW/Internet wound down was bio-tech but a combination of
things like social attitudes and the US medical system make me less
convinced that that's going to happen. Sure there'll be some bio-tech
successes centered around Stanford, but it won't be the center of the
universe.
All y'all mean, petty, no-electricity-havin',
one-quake-away-from-ocean-livin', bellini-sippin', smog-inhalin'
sumbitches can go straight to hell. At least if we had a recall, we
could run Rip "Arthur from the Larry Sanders Show" Torn or Tommy Lee
Jones for the governorship to replace that empty-headed piece of crap
currently in charge.
Would it really be so bad to see Angelyne run for president? Our partisanship is at least funny.
It will get that nasty,Kev. In fact we have a damned if we do damned
if we don't situation.. get nasty to fend off extremist inroads from
neo-cons.. or be civil and let the neo-cons have all of what they want.
If you ask me things have already gotten nasty.
Far be it from me to question Max's economic skills, but his job
chart is a net calculation that includes both jobs lost, and jobs
created. So it is likely, with the net growth so near zero currently
that, on a gross basis,jobs are being lost. Close to one job for each
new one created by either an existing business or a new business.
Arnold is probably right that jobs are leaving Ca.
The first poll(Time/CNN) is out has Arnold at 25%, next highest Bustamante at 15%, nobody else above 9% (Mcklintock).
You guys sure are fun to watch from back East, I'll tell ya.
I would think 25% should be a little disappointing for Ahnuld given
the blast of free pub from every corner of the media over the last few
days.
That first poll will probably be the high-water mark for him.
I would think 25% should be a little disappointing for Ahnuld
given the blast of free pub from every corner of the media over the last
few days.
That sounds right to me. BTW is any organization trying to get debates going out there?
As one of the few native Californians who actually lives in Texas, I can tell you the economy ain't that great in Texas either.
Texas is just too damn hot, even if they didn't all have that
right-wing think alike thing going it still wouldn't be that great.
The chart would have ben more informitive if it was constructed on a
percapita or worker basis. But then how is one to adjust the chart for
Californias large underground nonreported economy?
California: Still better than Texas?
As a native Texan, relocated to San Francisco, I'd have to agree.
108 degrees in Austin today? Why did settlers ever stop in Texas in the first place?
Andrew, the settlers in Texas were fooled by sales people in Germany
and Bohemia (now the Check Republic) into shipping out of Hamburg to
Galveston and getting large amounts of free land.
No sales person would have mentioned the heat, humidity, snakes,
Indians or the large variety of insects that also inhabit this state.
But, hey, at least we have water and only a little bit of desert, unlike
southern California.
The biggest pest is, of course, conservatives, something most rural
states with low educational standards are inflicted with. They came out
of the woodwork because of integration, and it will be another
generation before they are beaten back like the cockroaches they are.
That, urbanism and air conditioning will make this a great place to
live.
In the meantime, some of us just can't afford to live in California.
And Californians can look on the bright side: at any time, California
could experience the "Big One" that will rip open San Andreas fault,
make California into an island, and make its current budget crisis moot.
spc -- the figures are total employment, so a change from one year to
the next is net -- jobs gained minus jobs lost. As long as the
percentage change is positive, the net is positive. There are always
jobs lost in the economy, just as there are thousands of business
failures every year. The more dynamic the economy, the more jobs lost
(and even more gained). Focusing on one side of the ledger is just
idiotic. Implying that the net is negative is either ignorant or
dishonest.
Feel free to question my assertions. I'd rather be corrected here than other places.
Focusing on one side of the ledger is just idiotic.
Are you saying that gross job losses, both those which leave the
state and those which result from businesses closing for reasons
associated with say overregulation are not an important economic
consideration? I disagree. A vibrant economy is always going to have
businesses closing and moving. The trick is to only have those close
which the free market determines, not additional ones caused by poor
gov't policy.That way new business creation and drawing new businesses
to CA will result in BOTH gross AND net adds.
Implying that the net is negative is either ignorant or dishonest.
I was implying the gross was negative, not the net. I was taking your
chart at face value, not questioning it's integrity, or yours.
I have the sense we may be talking past one another, rather than merely disagreeing. Looking forward to your response.
spc -- If there was huge volatility in jobs, including a large gross
outflow, that would be of interest. But as far as I know, nobody has
shown with numbers that Cal's gross outflow is unusual, compared to
other states. The aggregate numbers give no hint of whether the job
moved because of public policy or market conditions. The simplest
indication of health in this context is net job growth. More profound
indicators could be proposed and quantified. I don't think that gross
job loss is one of them. Of course "gross job loss" in your sense is
negative by definition.
I did not mean to imply you were ignorant or dishonest; my statement
applied to a claim the net is negative, a statement you did not make.
But as far as I know, nobody has shown with numbers that Cal's
gross outflow is unusual, compared to other states. The aggregate
numbers give no hint of whether the job moved because of public policy
or market conditions.
I don't disagree, I suppose the burden is on Arnold to show gross job
losses. But your net calculation does nothing to refute his claim.
The simplest indication of health in this context is net job growth.
Again, I agree, but that calculation doesn't address Arnold's contention. Simple does not necessarily equal adequate.
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Work in Texas is easier to come by for the same wages in Cali. I'm a
Latino from Texas living in California and the only place agencies want
to place me in is immigrant work. And sure, its hot in Texas but San
Francisco is always damned cold. When are the women going to start
running around half naked up here? j/k Too much money to live up here
without an education, no degree go to Texas, they will put you to work.
Work in Texas is easier to come by for the same wages in Cali. I'm a
Latino from Texas living in California and the only place agencies want
to place me in is immigrant work. And sure, its hot in Texas but San
Francisco is always damned cold. When are the women going to start
running around half naked up here? j/k Too much money to live up here
without an education, no degree go to Texas, they will put you to work.
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