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August 01, 2003

NORTH KOREA UPDATE....Some hopeful news on the North Korea front. Apparently the North Koreans have finally given in to U.S. demands that negotiations be multilateral, not bilateral:

North Korea appears to have accepted a plan to engage in multilateral talks over its nuclear weapons programs, clearing the way for the administration to formally provide its solution for ending the crisis, U.S. officials said yesterday.

....The prospect of new talks will require U.S. officials to settle on a strategy for persuading the North Koreans to give up their effort to produce nuclear weapons. The issue has deeply split the administration, with some officials urging an aggressive approach that offers North Korea few incentives to give up its weapons while others are pushing to offer a multilateral guarantee that North Korea, if it agrees to back down, will not face an unprovoked attack.

....One approach under consideration would promise North Korea that all the other nations at the table could jointly provide assurances of nonaggression, as the first stage of a larger discussion on future economic and political relations. North Korea has long demanded that the United States sign a nonaggression pact, but appearing to give in to that demand is opposed by some key members of the administration.

Another proposal, circulating among National Security Council staff members, would call on North Korea to take the first step in terms of declaring what weapon programs it has and then offering to eliminate them.

Some officials believe the administration should also dangle carrots, which could include energy assistance, development aid, participation in international financial institutions, removal of sanctions and normalization of relations. But those incentives would also be tied to specific progress by North Korea on other issues, such as human rights.

This is a positive step, even though multilateral negotiations are almost certain to be slower and more cumbersome than bilateral ones. Any talks are better than no talks.

This is also going to be a real showcase for differences between the administration's hawks and realists. In the end, however, I have to figure that if the realists can cut a halfway decent deal Bush will take it. Letting this crisis linger can only be bad news for him.

Posted by Kevin Drum at August 1, 2003 10:37 AM | TrackBack


Comments

How about a Well Done W for forcing a multilateral, international approach to solving this problem?

*crickets*

Posted by: spc67 at August 1, 2003 11:11 AM | PERMALINK

Well Done W, for forcing a multilateral, international approach to solving this problem.

Posted by: ChrisL at August 1, 2003 11:22 AM | PERMALINK

A couple of ways to look at this:

1) A victory for Bush's policy of refusal to meet.

2) NK agreeing to meet after gaining enough time to actually manufacture a nuclear weapon.

It's been awhile since they took those rods out, you know.

Posted by: Henry Shieh at August 1, 2003 11:22 AM | PERMALINK

Well Done W, for forcing a multilateral, international approach to solving this problem.

Thanks ChrisL, your check is in the mail.

Posted by: spc67 at August 1, 2003 11:24 AM | PERMALINK

Good news.

And I'll be the first to say that if indeed this is the culmination of a well thought-out plan that has been consistant within the administration since the beginning (say, since they confronted NK about uranium programs), rather than a lucky break coming at the tail end of a bunch of bone-headed maneuvers and regretful miscalculations, then good job. Of course it will be presented as the former, but it's just as likely to be the latter. In whatever case though it's good news.

But much awaits to be seen.

Now, if "conservatives" could stop blaming Clinton for NK we might be able to move on the land of frank assessment.

Posted by: Tim at August 1, 2003 11:25 AM | PERMALINK

Where's the kudos for the People's Republic of China, who recently sent a high-level envoy to Pyongyang?

Posted by: Henry Shieh at August 1, 2003 11:31 AM | PERMALINK

Where's the kudos for the People's Republic of China, who recently sent a high-level envoy to Pyongyang?

Kudo's to the PRC!

Where's my check?

Posted by: spc67 at August 1, 2003 11:43 AM | PERMALINK

You'll get it just as soon as I get my rebate check. ;)

Posted by: Henry Shieh at August 1, 2003 12:06 PM | PERMALINK

I think they'll cut a deal...

Posted by: Ben at August 1, 2003 12:16 PM | PERMALINK

Well, it's not a solution yet and I'm pessimistic but it's definitely a good sign....I don't know if time was on our side here--I hope the benefits of having China, Japan et. al. involved outweigh whatever plutonium processing went on in the intervening months. My gut feeling is that it doesn't, but I just don't know enough to be sure.

Doesn't our armed forces deployment in Iraq considerably weaken our bargaining power? Based on my limited understanding, we don't have enough troops to go into Korea without a draft. Can someone who knows more about the military than I do tell me?

Posted by: Katherine at August 1, 2003 12:18 PM | PERMALINK

Anything that stops Kim Jong-Il from having a stockpile of nuclear weapons has my enthusiastic suppport. Well, as near to anything as dammit.

Posted by: John Isbell at August 1, 2003 12:22 PM | PERMALINK

I posted about this yesterday afternoon, pointing out that it's way too early to celebrate anything, for two reasons.

The first is the Bush administration. As the article Kevin posted notes, "The prospect of new talks will require U.S. officials to settle on a strategy for persuading the North Koreans to give up their effort to produce nuclear weapons." They've been paralyzed for two and a half years; what reason is there to think that they'll settle on a strategy within the next month?

It's entirely likely that Dubya will respond to knee-jerk cheerleading like spc67's (which I'm sure is being echoed by hawks within the administration) by refusing to compromise in any way toward a solution, figuring that if the North Koreans "caved" once, all the U.S. has to do is wait for them to cave again. This intransigence will, as it has so far, cover up the lack of a thought-out strategy.

The second reason is we don't know what other cards the North Koreans intend to play. Everybody thought progress was being made a few months ago, when they met with the U.S. and China -- until the North Koreans used the first day of the talks to taunt us, saying "We've got nuclear weapons, what are you going to do about it?" Who knows what surprise they have in store for us this time?

Posted by: Swopa at August 1, 2003 12:29 PM | PERMALINK

I hope the benefits of having China, Japan et. al. involved outweigh whatever plutonium processing went on in the intervening months.

That point deserves to be underlined.

If the North Koreans have in fact reprocessed the plutonium that was under seal by the IAEA a year ago (and that the Clinton administration threatened war in the 1990s to keep them from reprocessing), then the Bush policy of "talk tough, but do nothing" so far has been a total and extraordinarily dangerous failure.

Posted by: Swopa at August 1, 2003 12:40 PM | PERMALINK

Defense of Bush NK policy:

http://www.reason.com/rauch/031703.shtml

As far as I can tell, NK has pretty much been violating the 1994 framework since it was agreed to.

Posted by: Ugh at August 1, 2003 12:44 PM | PERMALINK

This is good news indeed, although talking is not that useful unless you have goals, and it's hard to see what kind of agreement would reassure us short of regime change and/or the complete dismantling of the NK nuclear program (including all so-called peaceful uses). Anything else will be hell to verify and put us where we were with Iraq circa 1992.

Posted by: Crank at August 1, 2003 01:00 PM | PERMALINK

Katherine,

The US Army posture really has little to do with the situation about what can be done

The fact that upwards of 10,000 NK artillery pieces are within shooting distance of Seoul has everything to do with the military situation. The fact that the SK capitol plus a huge chunk of SK's population and economic engine is held captive to destruction limits all courses of action by the US and SK (and even the Japanese ;-).

If war ever breaks out, the ROK army has the manpower to eventually retake the country if the NK advance can be slowed in the first few days. The dominant US contribution would be airpower initially, in slowing the advance. Coincidentally, it's not airplanes that are needed in Iraq now.

But the US Armor would be useful to retake Korea, and the two best equipped armor division are still in Iraq...

Posted by: J Mike at August 1, 2003 01:58 PM | PERMALINK

A little more detail for Katherine -- I recall reading that because our troop deployments are stretched so thin, a unit earmarked as a "strategic reserve" in case of trouble in Korea is going to Iraq in September to replace current troops. Those troops will then become the "reserve" for Korea, for better or worse.

Posted by: Swopa at August 1, 2003 02:08 PM | PERMALINK

Let's all get the timeline straight. This is a god rundown of it all:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/kim/nukes/nukes.html

http://www.hillnews.com/marshall/021203.aspx

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/asia/northkorea/nuclear.html

There's a couple of maybes. Maybe they began actually violating the letter of the agreement not long after signing by negotiating with Pakistan, or maybe they only started violating around 1997-98, when they actually started getting uranium enrichment technology from Pakistan. The Republican congress delayed and stalled the AF as much as they could, undermining the clinton foreign policy and most likely agravating the situation. Some figure the move to Uranium had a lot to do with us not upholding our end of the bargain- which we most certainly did not.

So let's get off the "agreed framework as a failure" line of BS, shall we? If everyone is so big to demand critics slap GW on the back for this one, they need to look in a mirror and slap Clinton on the back for a program that successfully curbed plutonium production for years.

Posted by: Tim at August 1, 2003 02:19 PM | PERMALINK

Pfa.

First of all, between now and the day these talks are supposed to start, the DPRK will have hundreds of opportunities to back out. Are we to think that they will miss them *all*?

Next, remember what the DPRK seems to understand by the word "negotiations": posturing and denunciation. Just getting everyone sitting down in the same room, unlikely as that is, doesn't mean that any work can or will get done.

Finally, note that, as long as Mr. Bush and his hirelings are bombarding the DPRK with periodic statements of unrealistic demands and baffled disgust, they are doing neither more nor less than their constituents require them to do.

Posted by: Frank Wilhoit at August 1, 2003 03:07 PM | PERMALINK

According to Fred Kaplan in Slate today, it appears to be the administration that's doing the compromising (or, more accurately, caving in on some unreasonable demands), not the North Koreans.

Posted by: Haggai at August 1, 2003 03:41 PM | PERMALINK

That Kaplan article is great. Thanks, Haggai.

Posted by: Swopa at August 1, 2003 04:03 PM | PERMALINK

I think it is a sad commentary on North Korea's dealings with us that we can look on their agreement to actually come to the table with all the interested parties as huge progress.

Posted by: Sebastian Holsclaw at August 1, 2003 04:11 PM | PERMALINK

Call me naive (or ignorant of weapons and tactics), but I find it hard to believe that we haven't come up with a solution to the artillery trained at Seoul. We've had to chew on this problem for close to what, 50 years? And our military has no solution?

I realize that the solution might well involve nukes, but still..

Posted by: Joe Schmoe at August 1, 2003 04:53 PM | PERMALINK

We could nuke the known artillery positions, but there would be major diplomatic and radiologic fallout spread all over in such an event.

Posted by: Sebastian Holsclaw at August 2, 2003 12:36 AM | PERMALINK

For as much as most liberals don't like Steve Den Beste, he's got what I think is yet another intelligent post on the NK situation. Consider reading his (suprise suprise) very long essay.

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