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July 25, 2003

HOUSING BUBBLE?....We all like weird little economic mysteries, don't we? Especially when they include the opportunity for some crude Republican bashing?

The graph on the right, courtesy of the Progressive Review, shows that housing appreciation has been far higher in states that voted for Gore compared to states that voted for Bush. We already know that blue states tend to have stronger economies and generate more tax revenue than red states, and now it turns out that your housing investment does better in blue states too.

Why is this? Perhaps because appreciation is higher in urban areas, and urban areas tend to vote Democratic? Because liberal states tend to generate higher income growth, which in turn means that more high income families are bidding for houses? Because liberal states have artifically restricted the growth of housing stock, thus driving up prices?

Or maybe it's just because skyrocketing home prices are un-American?

I don't know either, but like the Progressive Review, I welcome your theories. In the true spirit of petty partisan demagoguery and amateur asset pricing analysis, I know we can solve this mystery.

Posted by Kevin Drum at July 25, 2003 04:53 PM | TrackBack


Comments

Could it be that liberal areas have more restrictions on development so increased housing demand leads to more price inflation since it's harder to simply meet the demand by increasing supply?

Posted by: Matthew Yglesias at July 25, 2003 05:03 PM | PERMALINK

Restaurants are better in Blue States.

Better art in blue states.

More open-mindedness in bleu states (French spelling) - as in - I believe my property value can increase, don't you? Here's 17 reasons why...

Posted by: Dano at July 25, 2003 05:05 PM | PERMALINK

Petty partisan demagoguery coming right up, as you requested!


Actually, I'm more qualified in amateur asset pricing analysis. Having recently bought myself a stupidly expensive one. So go ahead, ask me how much houses cost. I've read up.

Posted by: squiddy at July 25, 2003 05:13 PM | PERMALINK

"Could it be that liberal areas have more restrictions on development so increased housing demand leads to more price inflation since it's harder to simply meet the demand by increasing supply?"

Hey, we can tie this into the Stanford/Berkeley psychographical meta-study about conservative views & psychological attributes, where, accordign to the press release:

"..some of the common psychological factors linked to political conservatism include:
Fear and aggression, Dogmatism and intolerance of ambiguity,...Terror management"

So, conservatives are more "on edge" than liberals, and so feel more uneasy in high population density areas.

Obviously, it's easier to develop more housing in lower density or semi-rural areas than in densely packed cities, where there's only so much infill you can do. Therefore, in conservative rural & exurban areas, the housing prices would be expected to be more elastic (an somewhat lag personal income growth), than for more liberal city and inner suburb areas, where prices would track personal income growth.

There we go! Do I win a prize?


(Press release at on the psych study at http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2003/07/22_politics.shtml,
original study at http://faculty-gsb.stanford.edu/Jost/_private/Political_Conservatism_as_Motivated_Social_Cognition.pdf,
response to critics at http://faculty-gsb.stanford.edu/jost/_private/Exceptions_That_Prove_the_Rule.pdf)

How's about that for blatant partisanship

Posted by: Tom at July 25, 2003 05:17 PM | PERMALINK

Prettier women in bleu states. Cheaper gasoline in bleu states. Shorter lines at the grocery stores in bleu states. Polite freeway driving in bleu states. Colder ice in bleu states. Handsome postmen in bleu states. Smarter neighbors who keep their lawns nicer in bleu states.

Posted by: Scott Chaffin at July 25, 2003 05:20 PM | PERMALINK

Er, Sacré bleu!

Posted by: Linkmeister at July 25, 2003 05:25 PM | PERMALINK

Matt: that was option #3.

To the extent that anyone wants to take this seriously, I suspect that all three reasons are part of the answer.

Posted by: Kevin Drum at July 25, 2003 05:29 PM | PERMALINK

Is the correlation really this perfect? Every last Gore state has at least as much appreciation as the best possible Bush state?

Forget about the politics -- that would be so weird it would be positively freaky.

Posted by: frankly) at July 25, 2003 05:30 PM | PERMALINK

Dano: indeed. If we liberals live in a socially constructed reality, then why not construct something good and profitable? Works perfectly for me!

Posted by: Kevin Drum at July 25, 2003 05:30 PM | PERMALINK

Which state is the one with the 450% rise since 1980? I wouls guess MA, NY or California.

Posted by: Dan at July 25, 2003 05:34 PM | PERMALINK

Oops, I take back my post, there is no perfect correlation -- misread the axes.

Axes of evil I guess.

Posted by: frankly0 at July 25, 2003 05:34 PM | PERMALINK

My guess is that the survey included trailer parks in their housing appreciation survey.

Trailer parks make up a disproportionate share of the housing in Bush states, and my guess is they do not appreciate very much, hence the solution to the mystery.

Posted by: Fabio at July 25, 2003 05:42 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin, even though we disagree once in a while, ok, all the time, I still think you should run for Governor simply because you and read these economic charts.

Posted by: Justene at July 25, 2003 05:52 PM | PERMALINK

Does this mean that Conservatism is objectively worth less than Liberalism?

Since every good conservative knows that free markets never lie, I do believe that makes anyone who disagrees with this data is a Communist.

So, come on, Republicans. Tell me why Liberalism is bad and you love Stalin, right after you personally apologize for the crimes of Chairman Mao.

Posted by: The Mighty Reason Man at July 25, 2003 05:53 PM | PERMALINK

I'd love to see this broken down on a county level--I imagine the distinction gets stronger. (For the record, I'm willing to bet it's an urban/rural distinction, and that the high-appreciation Bush states are those with big urban centers.)

Of course, my own Orange County is appreciating like mad, and it's solidly Red (in a Blue state).

And the graph would be much better if the axes were swapped, so that the victory margin became causal instead of an effect.

Posted by: Dan at July 25, 2003 05:55 PM | PERMALINK

The bookends (ocean front properties), were always expensive. What's the point? You're comparing digs in California and New York to fly over country?

Posted by: Carol Herman at July 25, 2003 06:00 PM | PERMALINK

I'll go with population density as the driving factor. This graph shows correlation, but I rather doubt causality.

Probably pretty simple to investigate; check the census data (presuming -- requisite partisan swipe -- the Bushniks haven't classified it or just stopped making it available).

Posted by: bleh at July 25, 2003 06:37 PM | PERMALINK

If the bookend real estate is so valuable why is it that they are populated by blue voters and not red? I would think that the hard working republicans would be over represented in the high dollar real estate market, while the loser democrats would be living in the trailer parks of Fort Wayne.

Posted by: Rick DeMent at July 25, 2003 06:47 PM | PERMALINK

Carol - no, we're also comparing states like Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana - which, curiously, seem to lack much in the way of trendy expensive beachfront property. I don't recall New Mexico as being replete with trendy ocean views, either. Just very sandy.

Posted by: Downunder at July 25, 2003 06:48 PM | PERMALINK

Perhaps because nobody will pay top dollar for a house that they know they'll have to repaint immediately.

And it takes multiple coats to cover that nasty shade of red. Very expensive proposition.

Posted by: RickT at July 25, 2003 06:58 PM | PERMALINK

People don't generally leave NYC to live in Oklahoma, do they? And that's not to knock OK, but the liberal urban centers are where people go to come of age and make their marks in the world -- if they can.

I live in a county that contains a fairly serious urban-rural border. The conservatives who live in the rural part of the county obsess a lot about how evil and terrorist-like the liberals in the urban part are. Liberals want growth restrictions but the conservatives run right-wing candidates heavily financed by the out-of-county and out-of-state development interests, and vote for them while carping at the liberals for bringing an outside influence to the county. Thanks to some recent gains for them, soon, we'll be overdeveloped, a conservative paradise, apparently, of ugly, smoggy, paved-over big-box culture. Yay! A victory for God and America. We coulda been this cool, unique, funky place, but the right-wingers and their pals, the out-of-town developers, got a few hundred votes on us, and they want Eastern Va, so that's what we'll get.

But the upshot is that, the dense development drives up (despite increased supply) the prices of houses in our part of the county, while the property in the other part remains fairly flat. It makes no sense, but it's kind of funny, because it's like this market spike driven mostly by conservative spite towards liberals.

Posted by: Demetrios at July 25, 2003 07:08 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin,

Interesting that you should blog on this topic.
I just returned from a couple of weeks in Scandanavia, and have been wondering if a similar analysis could be performed in which various quality of life indicators were compiled for societies with a progressive political orientation vs. societies with a dominant rightwing ideology? I'd be willing to bet that in such a comparison the progressive societies would stomp the right-leaning societies, no contest. So why does anyone subscribe to a right wing ideology? Where is the evidence that it produces a desirable state of affairs?

Posted by: peter jung at July 25, 2003 07:13 PM | PERMALINK

Occam's razor says: the ones who are worst-treated under the current economy are going to vote for the other guy?

Posted by: p mac at July 25, 2003 07:24 PM | PERMALINK

Only a person smart enough to pay $200,000+ for a small apartment would be smart enough to vote for Gore?

Posted by: Sebastian Holsclaw at July 25, 2003 07:45 PM | PERMALINK

Peter: there are various organizations that compile "quality of life" indexes for all the countries in the world. Unfortunately, the various factors are so subjective, and it's so hard to define "progressive vs. right leaning" countries, that the data is close to worthless.

On the other hand, if you stick to the U.S., it really is true that the poorest and slowest growing places have a tendency to be pretty conservative. I don't think that's just a coincidence.

Posted by: Kevin Drum at July 25, 2003 07:46 PM | PERMALINK

To support Matthew Y.'s speculation about the correlation of liberalism with regulation restricting the supply of housing and hence higher housing costs see

Glaesser and Gyourko, The Impact of Zoning on Housing Affordability

Posted by: stefan at July 25, 2003 08:01 PM | PERMALINK

Here in Colorado, the most expensive real estate is also in the most liberal places. In metro Denver, Boulder has the highest values. Followed fairly quickly by the areas around downtown Denver. In the rest of the state, blue places like Vail and Aspen far outrank the right wing high plains in home values.

It appears that liberals can create places that people are willing to pay top dollar to live in. And that conservatives keep making bleak and boring suburbs that do not support social life. Just drive in a car on overcrowded roads to identical big boxes all selling the same merchandise. Liberals seem to create on a human scale, places where walking is the norm. Interesting way of looking at things.

By this rationale, the verdict of the market is for liberal government. People are willing to pay top dollar to live in such situations.

Posted by: Dale at July 25, 2003 08:12 PM | PERMALINK

Matt--Development restrictions like you describe would actually shift the supply curve of housing in (it cost more to provide a given amount of housing), which would generally lead to both higher prices, and a lower equilibrium quantity of housing consumed. Since houses generally don't just vanish, this would take the form of build-outs lagging behind population growth. And my subjective impression is that that's not the case--I think that, e.g., new housing starts are highest in the blue states (though I've seen that Red-AZ and semi-Red NV are among the fastest growing states).
So more likely, supply is shifting in (increasing price) while demand is also shifting out (increasing price and quantity). The supply shift represents the "Yglesias effect"; the demand shift reflects the "Drum factor".

And I'm not sure how the fact that in cities, you build upward and outward. My guess is that high rises and modest sized multi-family buildings are more efficient to build on a per-square foot basis.

Here's another theory: could graphs like this one explain why the Red states voted Red--i.e., were they not getting as much out of the boom as the states that voted blue?

AB

Posted by: Angry Bear at July 25, 2003 08:18 PM | PERMALINK

The county-by-county "Bush Country" map tells the story. Bush is big with voters who see a lot of open dirt during the course of their day. Open dirt is a damper on housing increases.

http://dirkthompson.com/images/usmapbycounty.gif

Posted by: Troy at July 25, 2003 08:24 PM | PERMALINK

Anyone who voted for Gore is probably delusional. Expect a mirror image chart next year showing the states with the largest house price falls!

Posted by: Giles at July 25, 2003 08:24 PM | PERMALINK

http://www.kunstler.com/

Enclosed is a link to James Howard Kunstler's website- Anyone interested in development issues might enjoy hearing his take on things. He is hilarious (and informative) live....

Posted by: peter jung at July 25, 2003 08:27 PM | PERMALINK

With p mac. The people doing well in 2000 voted for Gore, the people doing bad voted for Bush.

Posted by: Eric M at July 25, 2003 08:47 PM | PERMALINK

I wonder how Housing appreciation correlates with Libraries, bookstores, ethnic diversity, etc? There are a probably a few factors at work that tend to interact to creat a lot of results, including Liberalism, Housing appreciation, economic success, etc.

However, remember that vast majority of republican states have red state legislatures and/or governors. The blue states have mostly democratic state legislatures and/or governors. While state government is not the only force on state economy, I think we need to acknowledge that it has some effect. And evidently, Democratic State government seems to correlate with economic success.

Posted by: MDtoMN at July 25, 2003 08:57 PM | PERMALINK

Only a person smart enough to pay $200,000+ for a small apartment would be smart enough to vote for Gore?

Man Sebastian, I just had to bow down to your nice spin.
You've got game player. You've got game.

Posted by: WillieStyle at July 25, 2003 08:57 PM | PERMALINK

amateur asset pricing analysis

You mean market pricing.

Otherwise known as "Gomer sells his truck".

Posted by: David Glynn at July 25, 2003 09:19 PM | PERMALINK

RickT: Perhaps because nobody will pay top dollar for a house that they know they'll have to repaint immediately.

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! After two-plus years of house(condo) hunting in San Francisco, we got utterly ticked off that nearly every. Single. Place. was

a) $500,000 or higher
b) needed at least $30,000 in foundation repair (to say nothing of earthquake retrofitting)
c) was bought less than two years before for $150,000 less than they were currently asking, and in the meantime had done NOTHING to the above-mentioned crumbling foundation.

And these places sold. We just couldn't compete with Mrs and Mrs Lawyer or Mr Dotcom Cashout.

San Francisco is (was) awesome, but dang it, everybody wants to live there for some reason.

Sebastian: I'd love to have even a tiny place for only $200,000. But I wrote-in Harold Stassen, thankyewverymuch.

Posted by: squiddy at July 25, 2003 09:32 PM | PERMALINK

While picking on stupid blog posts is dirty pool, might I suggest that this is what urban liberals want: people not living in the 'burbs, but moving into the city, people who might even (like myself) vote somewhat less than democratic?

I live dead nuts in the middle of the city (St. Paul, which has reliably voted Democratic since the begninning of Minnesota). I never, ever vote Democratic Party. And, my very presence here jacks up real estate prices.

What KD should pray and hope for is for more people like me to move into this neighborhood, and that would make his graph look even better. Good luck, pal!

Posted by: Chief at July 25, 2003 10:40 PM | PERMALINK

In fact, last year the Wahington Monthly put out an interesting piece that, although it talks about metropolitan areas rather than states, goes a long way towards explaining why blue states do better economically than red and are likely to continue.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2001/0205.florida.html

Posted by: Alex at July 25, 2003 11:35 PM | PERMALINK

Occam's razor says: the ones who are worst-treated under the current economy are going to vote for the other guy?

That's kinda what I thought.

Posted by: spc67 at July 25, 2003 11:51 PM | PERMALINK

Sebastian writes: "Only a person smart enough to pay $200,000+ for a small apartment would be smart enough to vote for Gore?"

The Gore voter buys it for $200,000, and in a couple of years when gentrification is in full swing and there aren't as many brown people in the neighborhood, tears out some plaster to expose the brick, puts in some exposed-ductwork A/C, calls it a 'loft' and sells it to a Bush voter for $450,000.

Posted by: Jon H at July 26, 2003 12:19 AM | PERMALINK

Fabio writes: "Trailer parks make up a disproportionate share of the housing in Bush states, and my guess is they do not appreciate very much, hence the solution to the mystery"

I'm guessing depreciation is more common. The best bet would be on the value of the land underneath the trailer.

Posted by: Jon H at July 26, 2003 12:27 AM | PERMALINK

The problem with selling for a profit in the rich states is that it doesn't help you buy better housing unless you then move to one of the poorer states. My parents live in a house that has appreciated from under $100,000 to probably $700,000. But if they sold it, they wouldn't be able to buy a comparable house anywhere in the area.

Posted by: Sebastian Holsclaw at July 26, 2003 01:38 AM | PERMALINK

Um, who in his right mind would want to live in flyover country?

Posted by: raj at July 26, 2003 02:29 AM | PERMALINK

After the 2000 election I did an analysis county by county - and found there was an interesting distribution of Gore and Bush counties.

In coutnies dependent on low producitivity growth industries - they went Bush overwhelmingly. In counties which were based on high productivity growth industries, they went Gore overwhelmingly. In otherwords, the Bush vote is based on crashing the growth part of the economy, moving back to a slow growth debt laden economy.

This is merely another example of the crabs in a bucket effect: people who hate the metro-economy vote for lower growth to hobble it. That is why Republican scare issues - anti gun control, anti-gay, anti-urban black, anti-academia, anti-intellectual, anti-internationalist - are really variations on "big cities are bad and evil filled with bad and evil people doing bad and evil things."

Posted by: Stirling Newberry at July 26, 2003 07:40 AM | PERMALINK

I don't think "People who are doing well under the current economy vote for the incumbent" will work, because the graph represents appreciation since 1980.

I vote mostly for urban, too. With the data-free proviso that some of the growth generated by urban areas will be in nearby, Republican- or swing-voting suburbs.

(That point waaay up top is DC, right?)

Posted by: Matt Weiner at July 26, 2003 09:01 AM | PERMALINK

--the liberal urban centers are where people go to come of age and make their marks in the world -- if they can.
--Trailer parks make up a disproportionate share of the housing in Bush states
--It appears that liberals can create places that people are willing to pay top dollar to live in. And that conservatives keep making bleak and boring suburbs that do not support social life.
--I wonder how Housing appreciation correlates with Libraries, bookstores, ethnic diversity, etc?
--Um, who in his right mind would want to live in flyover country?
--. . .variations on "big cities are bad and evil filled with bad and evil people doing bad and evil things."

The self-congratulatory snobbery around here is amazing. If I thought all Dems were like that, I'd turn Republican.

Why is it that the proponents of tolerance for alternative lifestyles can't believe that to live in a smaller community -- with good schools, clean air, opportunities for community involvement, a fifteen-minute drive to work and low housing costs -- is an acceptable lifestyle choice?

Posted by: denise at July 26, 2003 09:38 AM | PERMALINK

The self-congratulatory snobbery around here is amazing. If I thought all Dems were like that, I'd turn Republican.

Most of the responses above are toung-in-cheek.
Good rule of thumb:
If you think a liberal is being asshole,
there's a good chance he's just being a smartass.

P.S.
Sorry for the profanity. My poor vocabulary makes is difficult to find less obscene synonyms.

Posted by: WillieStyle at July 26, 2003 09:48 AM | PERMALINK

WillieStyle, I think we all know that there is no logical contradiction between being a smartass and an asshole. Smartass is the main mode of Democratic assholes, just as dumbass is the main mode of Republican assholes. Making snarky comments neither confirms nor denies that one is himself an ass.

Posted by: Sebastian Holsclaw at July 26, 2003 10:56 AM | PERMALINK

Your wisdom shames me Sebastian Sensei.

Posted by: WillieStyle at July 26, 2003 01:30 PM | PERMALINK

I think it is that people who had been left out of the boom voted for a change in leader.

I know that is is home appreciation since 1980, so maybe it takes about 20 years to become really fed up?

Posted by: Tripp at July 26, 2003 02:24 PM | PERMALINK

The problem with selling for a profit in the rich states is that it doesn't help you buy better housing unless you then move to one of the poorer states.

There's such a thing as refinancing for housing equity withdrawal, Sebastian. It's what is keeping US consumer spending afloat right now.

Posted by: freetles at July 26, 2003 06:24 PM | PERMALINK

I dunno, but I can get somebody a really really good deal on a 2600 sq ft, 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath house in the East Bay...

MKK

Posted by: Mary Kay at July 26, 2003 10:17 PM | PERMALINK

Is there a relationship with the notion (fact?) that the more educated you are, the more Democratic you tend to vote?

If you think that's snobbery, just look at Bush - the perfect example!

Posted by: craigie at July 26, 2003 11:09 PM | PERMALINK

Is there a relationship with the notion (fact?) that the more educated you are, the more Democratic you tend to vote?

Actualy, the least educated people AND the most educated people vote Democratic.
The median folks vote Republican.
see more here

Gore got more votes from those without a highschool diploma and those with post graduate degrees.
Bush got more votes from those with Some College education and those with only an undergraduate degree.

Posted by: WillieStyle at July 27, 2003 05:18 AM | PERMALINK

I think housing price appreciation is driven chiefly by increases in demand for land due to population growth and immigration; it's not like the houses are getting that much nicer as the years go by through maintenace.

Liberals live in high-density areas; conservatives don't. Why bid up the price of someone's existing house when you can just build a new one a mile down the road? Because liberal areas tend to already have all the land covered, the only way to go is up, which costs more.

Posted by: Jason McCullough at July 27, 2003 07:12 PM | PERMALINK

Williestyle wrote :

"Actualy, the least educated people AND the most educated people vote Democratic.
The median folks vote Republican."

Thus proving that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing :-)

Posted by: Julian at July 27, 2003 07:37 PM | PERMALINK

"BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! After two-plus years of house(condo) hunting in San Francisco, we got utterly ticked off that nearly every. Single. Place. was"

Toughies on buying post-dot-com in SF, where prices are magically levitating.

South Bay/peninsular prices are weakening, but why don't you try East Bay? Say Lake Merritt or Alameda, or Albany?

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