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July 18, 2003

WHERE'S THE WMD?....Asked about the infamous 16 words and how they got into the State of the Union address, White House press spokesman Scott McClellan asked everyone to take a step back yesterday:

You have to go back to the bigger picture. That was one piece of a much broader case against Saddam Hussein....

That might be good advice, so let's ask the broader — and far more important — question: where is the WMD?

I'm reminded of this by a couple of things. First, I noticed this sentence about special ops teams in Iraq from Max Boot's article "The New American Way of War" in Foreign Affairs (summary only online):

They had been operating in Iraq for several months, focusing especially on the search for weapons of mass destruction and missile launcher sites in western Iraq.

I had forgotten about that, but he's right. In addition to the UN inspectors, who may have been doing an inadequate job in the view of the Bush administration, we had our own troops searching for WMD in Iraq for several months before the war. But they came up empty handed. Did that cause any doubts in Washington?

Today in the Globe and Mail, Canadian analyst Sunil Ram goes further and says directly that Iraq didn't have a nuclear program and didn't have chemical or biological weapons of any significance either. What's more, he said American officials had been told this in early 2001:

"The people doing the presentation were weapons inspectors and former weapons inspectors and senior members of (U.S. government) agencies," Mr. Ram said in an interview.

....The conclusion they reached, he said, was that "Iraq's nuclear weapons program (didn't exist) because (the Iraqi government) had dismantled it."

He said the message of experts at the meeting was heard loud and clear by many U.S. military and political officials.

....The Washington meeting dealt specifically with nuclear weapons, but Mr. Ram said it also addressed chemical and biological weapons to a smaller extent. Even there, he said, the danger to the world from such weapons was dismissed by the presenters.

If there were such weapons in Iraq at that time, he said, "they were negligible in quantity and militarily meaningless."

After 9/11, however, apparently the Bush administration no longer wished to believe this.

So: where is the WMD? In March Donald Rumsfeld said not just that Iraq had WMD, but pointed out their exact location:

We know where they are. They're in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat.

So it's not the entire country we need to search, it's just the areas around Baghdad and Tikrit. Except that there's nothing there.

I have long thought that Saddam did indeed have chemical and biological weapons and that the Bush administration is genuinely surprised that we haven't been able to find them. But the more I read, the more I wonder about that. I wonder if the intelligence regarding those weapons was far less compelling than we've been led to believe and the Bushies aren't quite as surprised as they pretend to be.

This is indeed the bigger picture. But it looks no better for the Bush administration than the 16 words. In fact, it looks considerably worse.

UPDATE: Tim Dunlop suggests that Sunil Ram's recollections are not entirely accurate. After looking at a transcript of the conference's keynote address, he says:

Yes, it definitely puts a huge question mark over Saddam's nuclear capability, but it leaves no doubt that he was trying to pursue such devices, as he was other weapons, including conventional weapons. It also indicates that they thought inspections were essential to confirm their intelligence reports.

He also thinks that the Bushies really did think their suspicions about WMD were correct and really are surprised that they haven't found any yet. Despite what I said above, I imagine he's probably right about that.

Transcripts of the entire conference are here.

Posted by Kevin Drum at July 18, 2003 01:45 PM | TrackBack


Comments

But... he's Canadian!

Anyway... it doesn't matter, since the inva^h^h^h^hliberation was about something else all along. When we know what is was, we'll let you know. Nosy untrusting traitor.

Posted by: squiddy at July 18, 2003 01:50 PM | PERMALINK

I take it this isn't too good for Kenneth Pollack's credibility, either.

Posted by: tc at July 18, 2003 01:53 PM | PERMALINK

I'll just point out that Rumsfeld's statement is "technically accurate". For a broad enough interpretation of "somewhat", I can guarantee that there are, in fact, WMD "in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat."

Posted by: cmdicely at July 18, 2003 01:54 PM | PERMALINK

just a question. if in fact the WMD justification was knowingly forged (stretched, perhaps) by Bush & co., didn't they figure that it would come to this? eventually, all this stuff would come out about who knew what when, and more importantly, no WMD would be found.

are they really that stupid? i mean, they seem too politically shrewd to me to knowingly lie about something with such obvious consequences that is the subject of intense international public scrutiny. unless there was some plan to manufacture the appearance of WMD's, which would be almost impossible. what was the plan?

morally speaking, i wouldn't put it past bush, rumsfeld, & crew to use political capital for selfish means. but politically speaking? it seems...ridiculous.

Posted by: sarah k at July 18, 2003 02:03 PM | PERMALINK

actually, Kevin, although it didn't get much attention, Liberal Oasis noted that Rummy walked that line back in his appearance last Sunday with George Stephanopoulous.

He said: "I probably should have said 'we know where they were,' instead of 'we know where they are.'"

In the same show, he also had this exchange:

STEPHANOPOULOS: …couldn’t the war then…have provoked your worst fear, that these weapons would be moved and get in the hands of terrorists?

RUMSFELD: It could have. And it still could. Which is the reason you need to find them…

STEPHANOPOULOS: Does that show a failure then of the Defense Department…to secure those sites?

RUMSFELD: No. I mean, how can you secure…sites in a country the size of California, that has open borders, porous borders…

…It’s not possible to secure every single site.

What one has to do is to go in and win the war. Throw out the regime.

And then, as rapidly as possible, shift that fighting force into a presence force and try to provide security in the country.

http://www.liberaloasis.com/archives/071303.htm#071403

I mean, can you ask for a better example of how these guys think? Having just conceded that if there were WMDs, they could now be anywhere, he still shows no regrets whatsoever over policy.

Posted by: howard at July 18, 2003 02:07 PM | PERMALINK

Maybe they counted on being able to manufacture WMDs if none was found, and only afterwards learned how hard that is to get away with.

My money's on: they didn't care, and they counted on no one paying enough attention to make them care.

Posted by: phil at July 18, 2003 02:09 PM | PERMALINK

Sarah k - i can't remember which recently retired State Department analyst called the Bush policy a "faith-based" policy, but that's what it was.

They believed because they believed.

Just as they didn't have a Plan B for the post-war period, because they believed their own myth of cakewalk, liberation, and everybody still reports to work the next day, they didn't, for a second, entertain the notion that they could be wrong about WMDs.

Bear in mind that with the exception of acknowledging that he shouldn't have traded Sammy Sosa, neither Bush nor any of his top aides has ever, in his or her life, admitted to making a mistake of any kind. They are all '70s style CEOs, and we all know how well American business did in those days.

Posted by: howard at July 18, 2003 02:09 PM | PERMALINK

Judging by what Bush's supporters are saying nowadays, the WMD justification was just for the little people who needed to have their security threatened before they would support the war.

Posted by: PG at July 18, 2003 02:16 PM | PERMALINK

Wolfowitz. Vanity Fair:

"[Saddam's criminal treatment of the Iraqi people] is a reason to help the Iraqis, but it's not a reason to put American kids' lives at risk, certainly not on the scale we did."

Other stated rationales for war:

1) WMD Programs
2) Terrorism Support
3) The bogeyman of the intersection of 1 & 2

Personally, I think 3) was a reasonably good reason to intervene, but I would have done it through escalation of the UN inspections, not GW2.

IOW, build a real international coalition, not this COW crap.

Posted by: Troy at July 18, 2003 02:37 PM | PERMALINK

I personally have believed that there were no significant chemical or biological weapons there, since the first Gulf War. This is consistent with IAEA and UN pronouncements. In 1998, inspectors said that the weapons programs had been dismantled, and Iraq effectively "disarmed".
This is also consistent with many statements by Iraqi exiled scientists - the ones not appearing eager to personally benefit from the new order, at least.

Wasn't the UN case basically that Iraq couldn't verify the destruction of tons of nerve gas and bio. culture media (agar?) from the 1980's? Iraq's own documents showed that it existed, in the 1980's, they turned these documents over after Gulf War I to try to comply and end the sanctions, and the UN deemed them incomplete, because a fraction were unaccounted for. Has anyone seen anything else? Ever?

We claimed to have evidence - that we couldn't turn over to the UN without compromising sources, we finally did early this year - the inspectors visited the sites we suspected (all this before the war) and found ZERO.
If we had overwhelming evidence of a systematic and extensive program of nasty weapons, wouldn't something have been found? Anything?

This has felt very strange for the last year while the country talked about imaginary things. Even lefties had to go through logical contortions to make sense of all this (...well for an innocent person, Saddam sure acted guilty, etc.) Two words - Cognitive Dissonance.

Whatever he once had, I think it is very clear that the US did not have any evidence of an existing program. But, of course, the absence of evidence does not mean evidence of absence - according to zen master Rumsfeld.

Posted by: andrew at July 18, 2003 02:38 PM | PERMALINK

I confess that I figured the WMD stuff was too important and too public to be dismissed after the war was over. And yet, that's exactly what quite a few war proponents have tried to do. "It was a war of liberation. WMD had nothing to do with it."

Cynical though I sometimes am, I am appalled at the general finding that most people don't really thing it's important if we find WMD. It seems that the Bush administration knows the American public far better than I do.

Perhaps I shouldn't be surprised, though. I wrote a post a few months ago asking what things would have to happen for the war to be considered a success. One of the bullet points was "Find the WMD." Unfortunately, this was before I had comments, but I got quite a few emails from people saying that that really didn't matter that much to them.

Posted by: Kevin Drum at July 18, 2003 02:39 PM | PERMALINK

I agree with sarah_k that they can't be so stupid that they expected everyone to forget the WMD argument. If they had planned to shift to a humanitarian argument post-war, they could just as easily have made that the centerpiece of their new doctrine, no bait & switch necessary.

In fact, didn't Tony Blair recently articulate such a doctrine? Something about the obligation of well-off countries to topple dictators one-by-one and end misery everywhere in the globe? If you can figure out a way to do it, Tony, more power to ya.

Posted by: Grumpy at July 18, 2003 02:47 PM | PERMALINK

One story that has not received much attention in the press today is about Judicial Watch and the Cheney Energy Task Force. We put up a link on robwire.com today to the story from Judicial Watch of the documents they have obtained under court order from the Cheney Energy Task Force show that Cheney and his group were involved in a review of the Iraqi oil infrastructure in March of 2001 long before September 11th and long before the claim that Iraq had WMD's ever came up.
The documents contribute to the growing pattern
that the Bush administration was extremely interested in Iraq from the very start.

Posted by: Rob at July 18, 2003 02:49 PM | PERMALINK

Sarah K makes a good point, but overlooks the point that just about EVERYONE around the world assumed Sadam had chem/bio weapons. It was the conventional wisdom - the UN certainly believed. And think of the larger post 9/11 picture: in the eyes of the administration, weren't all these crazy middle east wackos looking to develop WMD? We found some evidence of chem research in Al Queda camps in Afganistan, no? A maniac like Hussein - who had actually used these things in the past (!) - certainly must have some on hand.

So, I think we need to cut them a certain amount of slack on making the argument in the first place. What is absolutely inexcusable is that they OVERSOLD the story with a bunch of clearly fabricated evidence, gave the finger to our allies and ran in there practically alone. Imagine if they had made nice with the Germans - if not the French - and managed to bring NATO along for the ride. The 3rd ID would be home right now. There'd be a lot fewer dead and maimed GIs. The press from the theater might not be great, but at least it wouldn't be disastrously awful as it is now. And, the lack of WMD would be a minor story with Europeans and Americans alike scratching their heads and saying, "hmm, boy, coulda sworn we'd find something by now..."

BTW: Check out John Dean on the SOTU:
http://writ.news.findlaw.com/dean/20030718.html

Posted by: bling at July 18, 2003 03:05 PM | PERMALINK

I just read the Dean piece and posted on it somewhere else. This is a powerful one, as Dean claims that the problems of deceptive wording go far beyond the "16 words" and that a special prosecutior is now clearly called for.

And John Dean would know . . .

Posted by: Claude Muncey at July 18, 2003 03:11 PM | PERMALINK

I think they originally just assumed there were WMD. As intelligence began to hint that the WMD may be gone, they said "hey, we better hurry this operation up while we've still got a case!" They probably thought the WMD existed, but that intelligence to prove it would be harder to come by as time went on. Their own zenophobia prevented them from accepting that the WMD were indeed gone.

Posted by: bombast at July 18, 2003 03:14 PM | PERMALINK

Rumsfeld said they were around Tikrit and Baghdad "and east, west, south and north somewhat."

Hmm. Wouldn't that in fact be all of Iraq?

Posted by: Ali at July 18, 2003 03:15 PM | PERMALINK

Bling,

If we'd made nice with the Germans, French, Russians, and Belgians: Saddam would still be in power, Hans Blix would still be inspecting and finding nothing, Saddam would still be supporting terrorist groups, the Iraqi people would still be living under tyranny and sanctions, Israel would never have agreed to pursue the roadmap, and the radical Arabs and Islamists would regard us as decadent, impotent westerners -- all talk and no action.

Chirac NEVER would have agreed to the forcible overthrow of Saddam if the inspectors didn't find WMDs, and the rest would have gone along with the French.

Posted by: NYer at July 18, 2003 03:22 PM | PERMALINK

John Dean's comments lose a lot of credibility in my eyes because he fails to acknowledge that the British stood by, and continue to stand by, the intelligence behind the "16 words." The rest of his critique is essentially that Bush didn't emphasize enough the fact that intelligence is sometimes imprecise or wrong. I have a hard tine taking him seriously.

Posted by: NYer at July 18, 2003 03:30 PM | PERMALINK

NYer:

I see this argument a lot. Chirac would NEVER have gone along with military action. What evidence do you have to support this contention?

Posted by: MuseZack at July 18, 2003 03:31 PM | PERMALINK

NYer

You misrepresent my argument: I base my case on the assumption that Chirac would never come around ("if not the French"). Maybe the Germans wouldn't have either, but the administration didn't even try to bring NATO around. I'm no NATO expert, but from what I understand the US carries far greater weight in that organization than the French. Clinton managed to get the Germans and Duthch and Belgians to move into Kosovo under the NATO banner, why couldn't Bush manage the same trick with Iraq - obviously a greater threat than to us than the Serbs?

Many of us would have supported an action based on strategic rationale that you allude to - get our troops out of Saudi, remove a major impediment to Israeli/Palestinian negotiation, etc. The administration didn't make that argument. They argued that it was urgent to go in as soon as possible based on an imminent threat. And that argument is now clearly spurious. No nukes. No WMD. No connections to al Queda.

It's clear that you admire the administration's enthusiasm for action. Fine: now the president has to live with the consequences.

Posted by: bling at July 18, 2003 03:52 PM | PERMALINK

I'm with NYer somewhat. I think there's a subtext of international economic competition (currency blocs, debt payments, OIL) that hasn't seen daylight yet.

The status-quo-ante sucked. Something needed to be done with Saddam. Unfortunately he was a bagman of the same UN powers that deliberated his fate.

But Bush lacked the true leadership to mobilize this country for a long-term multi-lateral engagement with Iraq, and proceeded in the most destructive, and correspondingly remunerative way possible.

Analogies fail me, but it's like causing a trainwreck to take out a crackhouse or something, or when the Philadelphia police firebombed an entire block to take out that armed sect.

Posted by: Troy at July 18, 2003 03:55 PM | PERMALINK

NATO's collective security sphere of influence seems to extend only as far as Turkey. Or at least it should.

Posted by: Troy at July 18, 2003 03:58 PM | PERMALINK

NYer,

I'm inclined to agree with your posting. Nonetheless, in a year, I expect the situation will be worse than if we hadn't invaded. The lasting good will be that Iraqis won't have to live under a police state, or at least Saddam's police state, and that is so attractive that it seems to outweigh other considerations. But it's unlikely that the material situation of the average Iraqi will be better than it was under Saddam. Many Arab and Muslims are impressed by our use of force, but if we are seen as involved in a quagmire, this will not be unmixed respect. I hope this prediction turns out to be wrong, but I'm afraid we may look back on the situation of March, 2003 with nostalgia.

Posted by: Roger Bigod at July 18, 2003 03:58 PM | PERMALINK

Blair is standing by those 16 words with:

"it's not beyond the realm of impossibility"

or words to that effect.

Some support!

Posted by: Troy at July 18, 2003 04:00 PM | PERMALINK

Bigod:

circumstances will be materially improved for us if the Iraqis move off their anti-US agenda. Intervention had that potential, and still does, but so far the occupation has been a mixed bag. Aforementioned US economic interests, and general activist imperialistic do-goodism, is clouding our message and efforts.

Posted by: troy at July 18, 2003 04:04 PM | PERMALINK

I'm no NATO expert, but from what I understand the US carries far greater weight in that organization than the French.

bling--One of the reasons for that, aside from the obvious difference in military power between us and France, is that France officially withdrew from NATO's military command structure in the 1960s under De Gaulle. The French have often co-operated with NATO since then, certainly in Kosovo where they took part in the war, but they never took the final step of officially re-joining the military planning committee of the alliance.

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Stories like this, and Chinese food, share a common malady. One hour after you eat them you're hungry again.

I know everyone involved with whispering stuff thinks this is the big whoop. But it isn't.

How come men know the difference between a power hitter in pro-sports, for instance, and a dad's bragging about his ten year old?

This story, while the people foaming it think its as beautiful as their kids' baby pictures ... misses a detail ... that if it was a product int he market place would pop out at ya.

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Tell me, where do all the lame stories go?

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Posted by: jesse at July 18, 2003 06:54 PM | PERMALINK

Aforementioned US economic interests, and general activist imperialistic do-goodism, is clouding our message and efforts.

I'd choose a stronger word than "clouding". Nam showed that incompetent execution can wreck an effort based on clear and praiseworthy motives. And we don't start with the clearest or most praiseworthy motives in Iraq.

Posted by: Roger Bigod at July 18, 2003 08:17 PM | PERMALINK

I was just thinking on the US's incompetence with SVN. We treated them like we were on a very short timetable, and could not reconstitute their army into a force that could defend their people from PAVN incursions.

We're making the same mistakes in Iraq. Only Iraqi boots on the ground can make Iraq a safer / more lawful / freer place.

Posted by: Troy at July 19, 2003 02:21 AM | PERMALINK

In the manouevring before the war, I took a paricular interest in closely watching Tony Blair and his demeanour. Like Bush, Blair is a devout Christian, and knowingly telling flat lies makes him very uncomfortable.

Unlike GWB, he's lacks the unimaginative man's capacity for self-deception. Not even his supporters claim GWB is imaginative - they emphasise his gifts for "delegation" (ie slackness) and "moral clarity" (ie ignorance and prejudice) - so he finds it easy to lie without admitting to himself that he's doing it.

Blair very, very confidently stated his case up to about a month or so before the war. Then his body language changed sharply - he looked quite haunted. And he started to play down the "Saddam will blow us all up" line and talk about the "humanitarian" issues and the need to show solidarity with the US in order to restrain it (Bush used Blair's support as evidence that he - Bush - was being reasonable. But Blair was saying that he had to support Bush to stop him from being unreasonable!)

I reckon the awful realisation that somebody had been leading him down the garden path about the whole WMD thing dawned on him about then. And this is not just hindsight - I noted the sharp change in demeanour and political line at the time on more than one blog.

I can't wait for Mr Blair's memoirs (the sooner he is given the leisure to write them, the better for his country and for his own peace of mind).

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