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June 07, 2003 MILITARY OVEREXTENSION....Tacitus points out today — correctly, I think — that our military is vastly overextended. It's one thing to fight a war, it's quite another to have half the active army committed to a long-term occupation of a medium sized country. But what options do we have?
Since this is one of my hobbyhorses, and this is my blog after all, I'm going to repeat that there is another option here: get the rest of the world involved. If George Bush had been more patient and more willing to compromise, I think there's a good chance we would eventually have gotten UN (and world) support for a war in Iraq and we wouldn't have to be patrolling the entire country ourselves. We'd still have a big role to play, and it would still be a big problem for us, but it would be more manageable than it is now. That's why the rest of the world matters and why we should listen to them. It might mean that we can't always do everything we want, but the reality is that we can't anyway. The sooner we learn this, the better. Posted by Kevin Drum at June 7, 2003 11:10 AM | TrackBackComments
I'm of two minds about the rest of the world getting involved in Iraq: 1) of course it's a good idea, but 2) it would reinforce in GWB's mind the idea that when something he does goes bad he will always be bailed out by outside forces as he has been in all those failed business deals. This causes him to be serially stupid. Ok, that's said half-jokingly, but still... Posted by: Linkmeister at June 7, 2003 11:48 AM | PERMALINKThe world tried to get involved via the UN, but Dumbya an' Da Warmongerz wouldn't, couldn't wait. While I generally agree with your points, I'm not sure even now that a war was necessary, even with world support. The inspections were proving that Saddam was a toothless tiger. It was the lust for control of the Iraqi oil that led to the invasion by the Bush administration. I agree with Linkmeister's points about NOT bailing George out of the QUAGMIRE he's run into. He will only get worse (just like Hitler did due to Chamberlain's miscalculations). You are right about listening to the rest of the world. It's been my experience that when everyone says something shouldn't happen, that's definitely the time to rethink the matter at hand. But then, how can one show that one is Julius Caesar Reborn if one listens to one's intended subjects? Posted by: pessimist at June 7, 2003 12:00 PM | PERMALINKTake a look at an article in Washington Monthly a couple of months ago "GI Woe" by Nicholas Confessore http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2003/0303.confessore.html Posted by: raj at June 7, 2003 12:07 PM | PERMALINKI'm in favor of restoring the draft--with both men and women, this time. No exemptions, to make it fair; all but the most disabled persons can contribute. There's nothing like a personal stake to get the average American interested in foreign policy and the next election. Posted by: Brett at June 7, 2003 12:12 PM | PERMALINK"there is another option here: get the rest of the world involved. If George Bush had been more patient and more willing to compromise..." But now that he wasn't that will never be possible again. If Tony Blair's head goes to the chopping block over this, no world leader will ever trust the Bush administration again. Posted by: taktile at June 7, 2003 12:14 PM | PERMALINKThe U.S. Military was also vastly extended under President Clinton--even with the UN support, so was he also wrong or just Bush? Face it even with the rest of the world supporting the prseident (whomever that may be) we (the US) will stiil be expected to do the bulk of the military support. Another thing to consider-do we want quality or quantity. The UN sure did a good job in the Balkans and parts of Africa right? Posted by: Daniel W. Durham at June 7, 2003 12:17 PM | PERMALINKThe UN and NATO haven't done that badly in Bosnia since '95 and Kosovo since '99, Daniel. Or would you rather the US handle those peacekeeping duties alone? Posted by: Haggai at June 7, 2003 12:33 PM | PERMALINKDaniel, even if the active military operations involved (by which I mean facing armies in the field, etc.) draw almost entirely on the US military, _that_ isn't what's stretching us thin. It's the need to keep so very many of those troops on police duty in Iraq. We have more than enough troops, supplies, etc. to blow up anyone that needs blowing up -- so long as we don't also need to use all those troops for the building up phase that follows. I don't really care whether we go through the UN or not. But it'd be nice to have some allies who are both (a) willing to share in this part of the hard work, and (b) have a military budget that at least rivals the annual budget of the NYC police department. (It seems that the UK is falling down on (a), and it's my understanding that Poland isn't even close on (b).) Posted by: JW at June 7, 2003 12:43 PM | PERMALINKI agree that it's too late now. But thinking toward the future..... Daniel: Iraq is a whole different order of magnitude. Under Clinton, reserves were called up for 90 days and then mostly went back to work. That's just not true anymore, and it's causing huge problems. Posted by: Kevin Drum at June 7, 2003 01:40 PM | PERMALINKThe U.S. Military was also vastly extended under President Clinton--even with the UN support, so was he also wrong or just Bush? People who think that this one is Clinton's fault too have that extraordinarily loose grasp of history that comes with attending high school in the U.S. The U.S. has been overstretched since World War II. What's different about now is that the combination of factors - no draft, a shrinking industrial base, declining educational standards, over-reliance on foreign oil and crumbling democratic institutions as a result of economic and political inequality - put us at greater risk from the nearly insane foreign policy being pursued by the Bushies. We're probably going to have to reinstate the draft to pull us out of this hole. I harbor no illusions that it's going to be fair - the kids of the wealthy and influential will be excused and it probably will ignite the class war in this country. However, that may be preferable to having our military institutions buckle under the weight they're carrying. Right now, I have more confidence in our military leadership than in our civilian leaders, a sad thing to admit in a country where the military is subordinate to civilian leaders. I will be warning my kids about this as the best reason for doing exceptionally well in school, so that they are perceived as having greater use than stopping a bullet. Posted by: JLowe at June 7, 2003 02:10 PM | PERMALINKIt seems like there's a fifth option--increase the size of the military by boosting salaries and recruitment budgets. This might require raising taxes, of course, but I'd much rather increase taxes than reinstitute the draft. Posted by: Steven desJardins at June 7, 2003 02:35 PM | PERMALINKI guess the option of reducing US military commitments to reflect the end of the Cold War would be deemed treason. A lottery draft, of men and women, with almost on exemptions, would radically alter Americans' perceptions of the use of military force. Might move them to put away the pitchforks and torches and actually think about what we are doing. Posted by: James E. Powell at June 7, 2003 02:44 PM | PERMALINKPeople who think that this one is Clinton's fault too have that extraordinarily loose grasp of history that comes with attending high school in the U.S. Groan.... The U.S. has been overstretched since World War II. I suppose if you play with the definition of "overstretch," you might make this case. But few serious observers would agree with you. The American military hasn't been this thin relative to its commitments since the late 1940s. For most of the Cold War, though, we maintained manpower levels sufficient to survive the first round of World War Three -- not inconsiderable at all. We had enough to put half a million men into Vietnam while meeting our commitments to NATO, Korea and Japan. Even in the 1991 war against Iraq, we mustered half a million in-theater without stripping our non-European garrisons. We couldn't even contemplate such a feat now. Our current state of military unreadiness and short-handedness is assuredly unique in modern American history. To assert otherwise -- to say it's nothing new, or that it's always been thus -- is to demonstrate the extraordinarily loose grasp of history that comes with attending high school, well, wherever you did. Posted by: Tacitus at June 7, 2003 02:46 PM | PERMALINKI like Daniel's leap to right-wing response No. 1: when a policy can't be justified with truth or reason, bring up Bill Clinton. It's the Godwin's Law of this unfortunate time. Posted by: James E. Powell at June 7, 2003 02:47 PM | PERMALINKtaktile, No world leader trusts the Bush administration now (well, other than Ariel Sharon). Worse, it's not just this administration that will suffer for it - the rest of the world is going to be a lot more cautious about supporting the plans of his successors as well, simply because of the ill-will created by Bush. He's gone beyond pisoning the well, he's pissed in it, in front of everybody else. And so nobody is going to drink there for a long, long time. Sorry guys, but Iraq is your problem. You made the mess, you clean it up. Idiot/Savant Posted by: Idiot/Savant at June 7, 2003 03:19 PM | PERMALINKMr. Powell, I wasnt trying to attack President Clinton nor was I trying to defend the use of our military policy today. All I was trying to point out that basically since the early 90s our military has been significantly overextended. So if Bush is wrong now with the overextension of the military then shouldn't we also say that President Clinton was wrong in this aspect? If we just crticize people not based on their policy but on their party affiliation what does that say about us. If a policy is wrong, then it is wrong no matter who does it. Correct? Also since the Cold war ended our military size has been cutback significantly yet the military is expected to fulfill the same obligations and requirements. And that I blame on the Congress and the Penatgon, not a democract or a republican. I apologize to you Mr.Powell and to anyone else who took my remarks as an attack against President Clinton. It wasnt intended to be. I am learning how to make my points clearer and more concise--so be patient with me. Thank you Posted by: Daniel W. Durham at June 7, 2003 03:26 PM | PERMALINKTacitus, Thank you for your comment. I no longer feel like I’m flying below radar. We could compare citations and weight of evidence to resolve your contention that few serious observers would agree with me regarding our historical overstretch. In “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers” by Paul Kennedy, it was noted that we had alliances, treaties, deployments, etc. in nearly 100 nations, in the 1970s. We could “meet” our commitments in Europe and Korea during the Vietnam conflict because there was a draft at the time. Weren’t we also relying on the tactical nuclear deterrent as a force multiplier? In turnabout, I suppose if you confine the definition of “stripping” to areas outside of Europe, you could make the case that we could deploy five hundred thousand troops to Kuwait in 1991 without jeopardizing our other commitments. I suppose that we could send a corps from Europe to the Middle East was because the Warsaw Pact was beginning to stand down. I don’t think we would have done the same in 1984, if there had been a Middle East conflict requiring our intervention. It is more likely that our state of military unreadiness was greater in the 1970s following Vietnam than now. We were enormously fortunate that the “war-and-a-half” doctrine of the time was never put to the test. To say that we have never experienced strategic overstretch from the Korean conflict until now is to place an excessively narrow military focus on the definition of overstretch. Just one example is that some of resources our nation has invested in its military to meet those commitments could have been better spent elsewhere. We’re currently on the razor’s edge, but it’s a stretch to argue that we’ve been relatively risk-free in a strategic sense up until now. Posted by: JLowe at June 7, 2003 04:39 PM | PERMALINKMr. Durham, You don't need to apologize to me for anything. I didn't take your remark as an attack on Clinton, but as an example of a common non sequitur response from those who are wedded to the Bush Junta, no matter how bad their policies, and no matter how bad they are at acting on them. You then go on to repeat both my points: "If we just crticize people not based on their policy but on their party affiliation what does that say about us. If a policy is wrong, then it is wrong no matter who does it. Correct? Also since the Cold war ended our military size has been cutback significantly yet the military is expected to fulfill the same obligations and requirements." First, if the current military situation is a bad idea, 100% responsibility belongs to Bush, who launched the Iraq War and created the current situation. Rememeber, the US was not under attack by Iraq. The case for the necessity, let alone the urgency, has been revealed to be exactly as false as many opposed to the war said it was. It doesn't matter what Clinton did in Bosnia, what Nixon did in Vietnam, or what Lincoln did in Virginia. We are right here, right now, and need to figure out what the best next moves are. Second, no coherent policy has emerged to replace the Cold War's as an organizing principle for post Cold War US military and international policy. I guess we are watching it emerge right now. Posted by: James E. Powell at June 7, 2003 05:04 PM | PERMALINKUhmmm ... can I point out that you're occupying 2 medium sized countries? Soldiers are still getting killed in Afghanistan (5 Germans recently but 2 American GIs a couple of weeks ago). As for spending more money on the military, the next step is to spend as much as ALL other nations combined. Isn't outspending the next 9 biggest military budgets enough? Posted by: Patrick Taylor at June 7, 2003 06:26 PM | PERMALINK"Sorry guys, but Iraq is your problem. You made the mess, you clean it up." Now, as much as I don't like Bush, either, I hardly think this is a constructive attitude. The people who are going to "clean up this mess" (nice use of euphemism, by the way) are a bunch of poor 19-year-olds from West Virginia. The people who were actually responsible, even if they are eventually punished for their choices, are not going to be doing any of the actual "cleaning" under any circumstances, and there's no sense in taking it out the people who get stuck with it. Posted by: taktile at June 7, 2003 07:18 PM | PERMALINKTacitus: when you say "unique," I assume you're talking about post-WWII? If you include U.S. history before then, there have certainly been many times when our military was far, far weaker (even relatively speaking) than it is now. Of course, we generally didn't have any foreign commitments then, either, but even so we were woefully "unready" many a time. Posted by: Kevin Drum at June 7, 2003 09:25 PM | PERMALINKIsn't another option to reduce our commitments abroad? Pull out of S. Korea - they don't want us there anyway. Pull out of Kosovo & Bosnia - Europeans can take the load. Reduce by half our troops in Germany & Italy. Reduce troops in Okinawa. Etc. I agree that getting our "allies" to pull their own weight is the best solution. But I don't think that we can get them to do so diplomatically - and I don't think that we could have got them to do it even if they were all as friendly as they were in the '90s. They didn't pull their weight for Kosovo or Bosnia, did they? No. So the only way to get them to do it is to let them suffer the consequences, if any, of not doing so. We've got to revise our military priorities. And protecting Western Europe from attack shouldn't be very high on our priorities any more. Posted by: Al at June 7, 2003 10:16 PM | PERMALINK"We've got to revise our military priorities. And protecting Western Europe from attack shouldn't be very high on our priorities any more." posted by al This is the discussion that has never taken place, and is not likely to take place in this age of pitchforks and torches. Every single military commitment has its constituency and its wholly-owned congressional delegation. Each of these groups says, it's okay to make changes, just don't touch mine. Since all commitments are covered, nothing changes. Anyone suggesting otherwise is branded as a proponent of weakness or a traitor. Posted by: James E. Powell at June 7, 2003 11:16 PM | PERMALINK"Our current state of military unreadiness and short-handedness is assuredly unique in modern American history." The Korean War, ww1, and ww2 all had equivalent problems, to my knowledge. Posted by: Jason McCullough at June 7, 2003 11:43 PM | PERMALINKI think with the possible exception of the Spanish-American War, this unpreparedness would be found. Posted by: pessimist at June 8, 2003 01:04 AM | PERMALINK"We had enough to put half a million men into Vietnam while meeting our commitments to NATO, Korea and Japan." Of course, the difference is that, during most of the Vietnam War the US military was supplied with conscripts--many of whom were sent to Vietnam, generally as cannon fodder. That was one not-insignificant reason for the protests against the Vietnam war--members, and children, of the general public were becoming entangled in Johnson's and Nixon's quagmire. The US military now has no conscripts, and so the general public is far less concerned about what happens to it. Posted by: raj at June 8, 2003 04:38 AM | PERMALINKWho has enough troops to actually make up the lost manpower of the US army? The European regular services (national service terms are too short to provide useful troops abroad) are miniscule. Posted by: Jane Galt at June 8, 2003 11:00 AM | PERMALINKI too think a draft will be inevitable, though it might not happen for 2-3 years. The Reserves spend too much time on active duty, and many of them wont re-enlist. Active duty recruitment was mostly up to goals in large part because it was a way for poorer people to get money for college; I'd say most of them didn't sign up to play policeman in the very hot sunny Iraq. I'm guessing fewer people will sign up out of high school if they think they'll be living in the Middle East. With the drawdown in manpower, a draft will probably be needed just to meet obligations in Iraq, which I don't see ending soon, unless of course we want an independent Kurdistan and a Shi'a theocracy in the south. As to whether it will again be a "rich get out of draft free" system again depends on who is in office. If Bush is re-elected you bet the rich wont be sending their sons off to war. We wont be able to get the rest of the world involved on the scale needed in Iraq. The only countries who have any military of any size at all aren't people we'd let police Iraq (like say China), or don't have the military strength to add in many thousands of troops (much of Europe). In most cases the overwhelming percentage of people in those countries against the war wont let them send their troops there now. Even Britain wont be leaving large troop numbers in theater. Freeing the people of Iraq was a good thing. But nobody in government really looked hard enough at what our future responsibilities would be. I think an honest discussion of this would have led a majority of Americans to conclude we couldn't afford the costs. Posted by: Norman at June 8, 2003 12:05 PM | PERMALINKAs I understand it, academic deferments were done away with in the mid-70's. If there is another draft, the children of the rich will be eligible. 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