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May 18, 2003

AN INTERVIEW WITH HOWARD DEAN....Liberal Oasis has an email interview with Howard Dean up today. Check it out.

I think it's nice that Dean gave an interview to a blogger, and it looks like it really was him answering the questions. I've always thought that email interviews with politicians were problematic because (a) it's too easy to just regurgitate campaign talking points in email, and (b) it's too easy to assign the interview to a staffer. Who would know?

Like I said, however, this sounds like it's really Dean, which makes this answer to a question about his opposition to the Iraq war immensely frustrating:

Frankly, I've never understood why [Bush] was concentrating on Iraq, which had been successfully contained for twelve years, while every day a country like North Korea develops its nuclear capability.

OK, then, Dr. Dean, what do you think we should be doing about North Korea?

But there was no followup. Argggh.

Posted by Kevin Drum at May 18, 2003 12:33 PM | TrackBack


Comments

You expected a follow-up question?
Okay, then, what would the answer be?
If we did something about North Korea, you can bet that Dean would be pointing out that North Korea had been successfully contained for almost exactly half a century and wondering why we weren't doing something about...whatever was left we hadn't done something about. Trinidad, maybe.

Posted by: Richard Aubrey at May 18, 2003 01:03 PM | PERMALINK

I think he's said he'd be willing to give more aid for verifiable, on the ground inspections.

Posted by: Katherine at May 18, 2003 01:33 PM | PERMALINK

"...Dean's discussion of North Korea's nuclear threat. He said the United States should resume food and fuel aid - and diplomatically recognize North Korea - in exchange for that country's allowing weapons inspectors to enter. Diplomatic recognition will pay off, Dean said.

"We'll have more leverage over their behavior when they're in the tent than when they're out of the tent," he said."

5/14/03

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/aplocal_story.asp?category=6420&slug=WA%20Dean%20Seattle

Posted by: 90210 at May 18, 2003 01:38 PM | PERMALINK

And when the North Korean government accepts the offer, aid resumes, and they keep the inspectors from verifing anything, I suppose Dean will say 'Damn the starving peasants, turn that oil spigot off, and stop the shipments of food!'.

Or is he more likely to say: "We must not take any rash acts which will allow the North Korean government to harden their resolve and which will tend to complicate the situation."

If answer #2 is more likely, he will be following in the recent tradition of the Democratic Party, North Korea will continue cheating, and the bargain will become food and oil as trade for pretending that North Korea was ceasing its nuclear program, just like it was under Clinton.

Posted by: Sebastian Holsclaw at May 18, 2003 01:51 PM | PERMALINK

Why don't you send him some questions and see what you get back?

Posted by: taktile at May 18, 2003 01:55 PM | PERMALINK

and the bargain will become food and oil as trade for pretending that North Korea was ceasing its nuclear program, just like it was under Clinton.

Oh, like Bush's response, "Oh YEAH? Well I DARE you to cross this line. Oh YEAH??? Well now I dare you to cross this line. Oh YEAH . . . ????" Playing chicken with a psycho itching for a confrontation (funny, but that fits either one of them) makes me feel so much safer.

Posted by: Thumb at May 18, 2003 02:08 PM | PERMALINK

and the bargain will become food and oil as trade for pretending that North Korea was ceasing its nuclear program, just like it was under Clinton.

In fact, North Korea did cease its plutonium production program in 1994, which was all it was required to do under the agreement with Clinton. That agreement said nothing about not refining weapons-grade uranium which, in fact, is much more difficult to produce than plutonium, and which requires a massive industrial infrastructure that North Korea doesn't have. (Why do you think the U.S. produced only one uranium bomb, and nobody else has produced one since? It's because plutonium is a thousand times easier and cheaper to make.) And the North Koreans didn't undertake their uranium production plans (which have gone nowhere; see above re industrial capacity) until the Bush Administration started threatening them and then broke its agreement to build the light water nuclear reactors Clinton had promised them. The Clinton plan was actually working, until Bush started making noises about the "Axis of Evil" and then decided to poke a stick into the hornet's nest.

Posted by: Basharov at May 18, 2003 03:58 PM | PERMALINK

The fact that Dean didn't offer up a response to what he would have done instead doesn't invalidate the question implicit in the answer which was: Why Iraq and not North Korea.

One of them was actually President, sort of, and ought to be able to explain why he made the choice he did.

That we've already prosecuted a war and we still don't know is more than a little troubling to me.

That said, Dean's response as posted by 90210 satisfies me notwithstanding Sebastian Holsclaw's response to it, relying as it does on Holsclaw's opinion of what Dean would do if Dean had done what Dean says he would have done.

We've already seen Bush's choices in action, might as well delve into those before we prosecute Howard Dean for the choices someone thinks he might potentially make at some point in the future, especially since those choices are likely to be moot before Dubya is done with all of us.

Posted by: Rick at May 18, 2003 04:02 PM | PERMALINK

Care to explain, Sebastian, why Bush's handling of NK is so exemplary?

Posted by: 90210 at May 18, 2003 04:09 PM | PERMALINK

Basharov, the Agreed Framework specifically stated that as part of the food and oil program, the North Korean government was to live up to all of its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Even Clinton wasn't silly enough to trade everything we had to bargain with in exchange for one particular method of making nuclear weapons.

The Uranium production was restarted by 1998 which according to my calculations predates the 'Axis of Evil' speech by 3 years, and in fact predates the entire Bush presidency. So unless 'working' is defined as 'the North Korean government can continue to pursue nuclear weapons while we pay them in oil and food not to pursue nuclear weapons' Clinton's diplomacy was at best kicking the problem forward into the next presidency, and at worst a complete failure.

Dean's approach has been tried, and it is was a failure. How many failures do we need before we are allowed to admit that the experiment has failed?

The value of Bush's approach is that it names a danger as actually dangerous. Instead of continuing to pretend that North Korea is in control, we are admitting that it is out of control. The situation in North Korea is just as bad now as it has been for a decade. We are only admitting how bad it is now.

Posted by: Sebastian Holsclaw at May 18, 2003 05:02 PM | PERMALINK

That's lovely, Sebastian, but I asked you what Bush is doing about it, not what he's saying about it.

Posted by: 90210 at May 18, 2003 05:07 PM | PERMALINK

Wonderful.

The beauty is that Bush is doing nothing to accomplish nothing; which is far better than doing something to accomplish something.

I see the point with Clinton, it's like presiding over a surplus and thus kicking the problem of how to rationalize deficits forward to the next President.

At least we can say that Bush has cured us of complaining about others abrogating treaties.

Posted by: Rick at May 18, 2003 05:22 PM | PERMALINK

What, exactly, is Bush doing to contain North Korea? Last time I checked, it had taken about 9 months of North Korea taking more and more obvious and public steps before Bush even admitted that perhaps talking about maybe having negotiations would be a good idea.

Failure or success, at least Clinton did something. Bush has done nothing about North Korea except publicly threaten them and refuse to hold any sort of negotiation (until about what, a month ago?). Neither of which did anything but accelerate North Korea's plans.

Posted by: Morat at May 18, 2003 05:28 PM | PERMALINK

Oh, forgot something. He also invaded Iraq, which means North Korea is happily untouchable for several months since our army is involved elsewhere.

Bush is playing "carrot and stick" except he didn't bring the carrot, and loaned his stick out.

Posted by: Morat at May 18, 2003 05:29 PM | PERMALINK

I'm not a believer in 'doing something' just because you want to be seen as doing something.

Rick, I'm not sure how comparing this to the surplus/deficit issue illuminates anything other than the fact that you dislike Bush for multiple reasons.

What Bush is 'doing' is illustrating that the North Korean government doesn't get food and oil from us for free. If they want to bargain their nuclear programs for food and oil, that is one thing. If they want to bargain food and oil from us for the APPEARANCE of getting rid of their nuclear program, there is no deal. North Korea has made quite a few demands that have to be met before they will negotiate. In another setting, Kevin said that that kind of behaviour revealed a unwillingness to really negotiate, and many of you on this board agreed. What is differenct here?

Posted by: Sebastian Holsclaw at May 18, 2003 05:42 PM | PERMALINK

So Bush is planning to eventually bargain with them?

Posted by: 90210 at May 18, 2003 05:46 PM | PERMALINK

Incidentally, it is Dean--confirmed by his own blog.

Posted by: Emma at May 18, 2003 06:36 PM | PERMALINK

90210, the US and China were involved in negotiations with North Korea not more than a week and a half ago. Reports are that China was shocked by how ridiculous the North Koreans were.

Posted by: Sebastian Holsclaw at May 18, 2003 06:42 PM | PERMALINK

So? I'm still waiting for you to explain how Bush's policy will have better results than what Dean proposes. You say NK will realize that Bush means business-- well here's something to consider: what if they just keep on deceiving us? Bush may talk tougher but his stick is no different than that of any other President.

Posted by: 90210 at May 18, 2003 06:47 PM | PERMALINK

So if there is no way to win, then you are saying that Bush's approach is no worse than any other approach right?

Question for all liberals. Is there any set of circumstances under which you will point to a situation and say that negotiations have broken down to the extent that further negotiations will not be helpful?

Posted by: Sebastian Holsclaw at May 18, 2003 07:48 PM | PERMALINK

Well, to me the difference is not the approach but the skill of the approacher. Based on their records, I'd trust Dean with it long before I'd trust Bush. Same approaches, different results. Want to compare Dean and Bush for lifetime accomplishments?

And no, while I am willing to go to war if necessary, even to make the first strike, I would always be willing to negotiate. It might not help, but on the other hand it might, and it can't hurt.

Posted by: 90210 at May 18, 2003 07:55 PM | PERMALINK

Question for all liberals. Is there any set of circumstances under which you will point to a situation and say that negotiations have broken down to the extent that further negotiations will not be helpful?

I'm not taking the bait. Since the current occupant of 1600 hasn't negotiated the question is entirely moot.

A fairer question would be to ask if there is any circumstance under which the current GOP and their fellow travelers would negotiate before they declare the negotiations have broken down.

Unless they're arguing that Clinton's Administration had at least as much skill as they think they can muster, I suppose that could be; in fact I'd bet on it. I just haven't heard them advance that argument.

I see them declaring anything short of war or impotent capitulation futile.

Maybe it's just me, though.

Posted by: Rick at May 18, 2003 09:44 PM | PERMALINK

The idea that negotiation can't hurt shows a horrible misunderstanding of the way that extra time can work to a dictators advantage.

Calling the GOP 'fellow travelers' is a fascinating bit of irony considering with whom you would have us negotiate. Do you understand the term?

Posted by: Sebastian Holsclaw at May 19, 2003 01:06 AM | PERMALINK

"Fellow traveler"=someone who supports a party's goals but is not a member, approximately.
"The GOP and their fellow travelers"=republicans and declared independents who support republicans.

So Rick understands the term, and didn't call the GOP "fellow travelers" of anyone.

Posted by: Matt Weiner at May 19, 2003 05:53 AM | PERMALINK

Nitpicking aside--
Under Clinton, N. Korea was secretly pursuing uranium enrichment, an ineffective method that might, after a long long time, have produced one nuclear weapon (in addition to the two they had before Clinton came into office).

Under Bush, N. Korea is openly pursuing plutonium reprocessing, an effective method that will give them a lot of nuclear weapons soon.

Bush also back-burnered the crisis for about a year while pursuing war on Iraq.

Advantage: Clinton! And the policy Dean mentions, too.

Posted by: Matt Weiner at May 19, 2003 05:56 AM | PERMALINK

As I understand it, the bomb dropped on Hiroshima was made of uranium; the one dropped on Nagasaki was made of plutonium.

The Hiroshima bomb was not very efficient, but it certainly killed a lot of people (over 100,000).

According to the CIA world factbook, North Korea is blessed with large uranium deposits, and has been mining them for some time.

For these reasons, I don't think we should be so dismissive of the possibility that the North Koreans are enriching uranium. To me, this sounds very dangerous. I do understand that the manufacture of nuclear weapons is a massive undertaking and is difficult to hide. But if it is at all possible to do it covertly, then it can be done in North Korea.

On another note, one of the interesting things about this crisis is that there may be no good solution to it.

Personally, I think that the course Bush is pursuing is the best one under the circumstances. For decades, we have made it very clear that the development of nuclear weapons will lead to economic sanctions. South Africa and Argentina destroyed their nuclear weapons because they were worried about economic sanctions. A lot of other countries, like Algeria, have stopped developing nukes because we threatned to sanction them if development continued.

Imagine what would happen if we suddenly reverse course and reward North Korea with econmic aid for its development of nuclear weapons. I don't think that it is a precedent we want to set, and I think that Bush is doing the right thing by stonewalling.

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