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May 17, 2003

INTELLIGENCE....Just a quick followup about Andrew Sullivan's comment yesterday that "our intelligence caused Bush and Blair to commit extraordinary errors in front of the entire world."

It's ironic, isn't it? The CIA spent most of the 80s issuing dire warning about Soviet strength, warnings that we now know were completely wrong. By the time Reagan came to office, the Soviet Union was already teetering on the economic edge, and the CIA was completely off base about both their economic and military strength.

This embarrassed them, and so by the 90s they had rightfully decided to be more cautious in their assessments. Then came 9/11, and the Pentagon, having decided that the CIA was now just a bunch of analysis-paralysis weenies, set up the Office of Special Plans to take a more aggressive look at intelligence data.

Well, now it looks like the OSP was wrong about Saddam's WMD, but who's getting the flack? The CIA.

These guys just can't win, can they?

(And while we're on the subject, am I the only lefty who finds it a bit disconcerting that I sort of feel sorry for the CIA these days...?)

Posted by Kevin Drum at May 17, 2003 02:36 PM | TrackBack


Comments

And yet, despite those mistaken estimates of Soviet strength, the myth has STILL been spun that Reagan was some kind of Super-Genius-Statesmen, because he spent the Soviets into the ground. No doubt the Bushies are attempting the same kind of thing, because hey, it worked then.

Posted by: Jaquandor at May 17, 2003 02:48 PM | PERMALINK

One line I've heard recently is the CIA is doing worse because its capabilities in "humint" (human intelligence) have been eroded due to the inconvenient meddling of the Church Committee in the '70s, etc.

So, I'm sure at some point, the CIA's flaws will be made into "the liberals'" fault.

Posted by: Brian Schefke at May 17, 2003 03:16 PM | PERMALINK

In fact, the story that the CIA & FBI was unable to prevent 9/11 because it had been handcuffed by the liberal reforms was spun furiously, by no less than Straight-Talk McCain, within 48 hours of the event.

And it was and is a widely believed lie.

Posted by: James E. Powell at May 17, 2003 04:03 PM | PERMALINK

Hard to say if there was a huge breakdown in intelligence because we don't get to read the reports. It would seem prudent for the CIA(and politicians) to cover their butts with more pessimistic outlooks then optimistic ones.

That said, the 'evidence' that was supplied by Powell and Blair to make their cases was weak, so weak they looked like fools. This would seem to indicate to me that the intelligence reports were a lot of conjecture and low on fact content....so low as to be guesswork if SH really had any WMD to begin with.

Posted by: jdw at May 17, 2003 04:35 PM | PERMALINK

Also, the erroneous assessments of the Soviet Union in the '80s were the result of politicized intelligence, just as we're seeing now with WMDs in Iraq.

I distinctly remember, as a high schooler in the late 1970s, reading about CIA reports that projected a Soviet economic collapse in the mid-1980s.

Would it surprise anyone here if the Reagan folks took office, read the accurate assessments, and figured out a way to "get ahead of the story" so they could not only take credit for the coming collapse but help their good friends in the defense industry as well?

Posted by: Swopa at May 17, 2003 04:36 PM | PERMALINK

Bush and Blair can't blame Iraq on intelligence, and it appears the OSP was set up so they could spin what the CIA refused to. Several intelligence people, as well as strategists, pundits and bloggers around the world, complained that B & B's urgency was unfounded. There were documented warnings from all over the world about 9-11, and appropriate measures were not taken by the administration. I realize that CIA and FBI and NSA are in bad shape, but the last time I looked, in the military, whoever's in charge gets the blame.

Posted by: Laura at May 17, 2003 04:42 PM | PERMALINK

Not that this is conclusive, but another data point: I've read a few comments (Gorbachev making one) that the USSR wanted to do the Perestroika and Glasnost things earlier in the 80's, but were hindered by the hard line taken by the Reagan and Bush I admins.
Also, seems the same kind of dynamic in say, Iran. Reformers are thwarted by a tough talking US pres. (Bush II now) giving the mullahs more strength. And I always wonder, maybe that really is the goal.
Neo-realists have to admit, being the toughest bully on the playground is sometimes the safest position, but not always.

Posted by: andrew b. at May 17, 2003 05:50 PM | PERMALINK

There's an interesting precedent for the Office of Special Plans in "Team B" in the late 70s, also set up because political leaders wanted a more aggressive look at intelligence data, in other words because they thought the dire warnings about the Soviet Union that you complain about weren't dire enough. See for example http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/1993/a93/a93Teamb.html

Posted by: Andrew Kanaber at May 17, 2003 06:57 PM | PERMALINK

I hate to break it to all the CIA-Cold Warrior bashers having a fest today but the CIA/DIA underestimated -not overestimated - the number of nuclear warheads possessed by the Soviets by roughly 80 %. They also grossly undersetimated the percentage of GDP that the Soviets were devoting to their military and state security - in part because the percentage in real terms was so fantastically high as to be unsustainable. The Soviets were economically far weaker than any western analyst realized but their military expenditure was as threateningly high as the hard-liner anticommunists claimed.

It was an odd combination that did not compute if you looked at statistics for say, annual tonnages of steel production
( highly inflated and included gross amounts of waste ) but in retrospect it makes sense when we look at states today like North Korea which if anything is a more extreme example of this phenomena.

Whether the overall threat posed by the Soviets was exaggerated will depend upon your view of what motivated Soviet decision-making. If you believe they merely passively reacted to American actions you will think the threat is overblown; if you think that the Soviets were motivated at least in part by internal politics and power struggles over ideology then the Soviets appear erratically aggressive.

A recently published good book on this subject, which is mostly critical of US spending priorities by the way, is _The Fifty Year Wound_ by Derek Leebaert

Posted by: mark safranski at May 17, 2003 07:35 PM | PERMALINK

Speaking of Saddam and Iraq, I was just at the home page of the New York Times (nytimes.com), and I noticed this news item:

Iraq's Slide Into Lawlessness Squanders Good Will for U.S.
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS and SUSAN SACHS 9:32 PM ET
Awe at American power in war has been transformed into anger at American impotence in peace.


This is not good...

Posted by: Aakash at May 17, 2003 07:41 PM | PERMALINK

Sorry to post so soon again but Gorby is spinning - he deserves credit for glasnost/perestroika but the other, earlier proposed economic reform programs had zero chance of going anywhere politically in the CPSU central committee - not Kosygin's ( lost power to Brezhnev), not Khrushchev's ( deposed by Kosygin, Brezhnev and Suslov) not Beria's ( executed by Khrushchev) not Vosnesensky's ( executed by Stalin).

No real reform occurred until the chief ideologist Mikhail Suslov died, freeing Gorbachev ideologically to move against the party nomenklatura and put reformers into power positions. Suslov was one of the last surviving Stalinists and had a network of loyal zealots, basically Brezhnev let him veto things on ideological grounds. Suslov was also a key voice on the Politburo agitating for the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

Posted by: mark safranski at May 17, 2003 07:47 PM | PERMALINK

You know, I remember reading small articles in seventies and eighties (in Detroit Free Press or News) about how the Soviet Union was going bankrupt and that its minority republics were likely to try to break away. The articles were always based on CIA reports. Am I they only one who remembers seeing them?

Posted by: LowLife at May 17, 2003 08:14 PM | PERMALINK

LowLife, see my comment above. The articles I remember were in the major newsmagazines (Time and Newsweek, IIRC) in August 1977 or thereabouts.

Posted by: Swopa at May 17, 2003 08:38 PM | PERMALINK

Swopa is right. The really crazy part is that it was the same people back then who deliberately overestimated the threat from the USSR. The same people were involved in the Iraq thing. Look up "Team B" and you'll find all sorts of stuff.

There are always people who by nature exaggerate the threat from foreign enemies. Other countries have these people too. Sometimes they're right. There's supposed to be a balance though.

China for instance has people who say that a nuclear war with the USA is inevitable. It has others who say we can push the war into the future, maybe forever. The key to national security is peace. That doesn't mean we must have a war with China. They key is to get people into power in the USA and China who don't want to have a war.

Posted by: Eric M at May 17, 2003 08:40 PM | PERMALINK

In fact they did it the same way, with a small outside group coming up with a scary report, then using political pressure to get the CIA to adopt those positions. Really the only way to combat propaganda is to have a collective memory of just how the lies were generated before, and a collective realization that they were lies, and a waste of money and lives.

In a way the kindergarten history of the Cold War, which we accepted, left us unprepared for the shenanigans these same crooks and shysters would pull on us in the following decades. Let's hope people become more aware now, as the bombs are going off all around us.

Posted by: Eric M at May 17, 2003 08:44 PM | PERMALINK

Speaking of developing a collective memory about how lies were/are generated, here's an updated detailing of the disinformation mill that Ahmed Chalabi's INC appears to be running in Iraq these days.

Posted by: Swopa at May 17, 2003 10:20 PM | PERMALINK

andrew b: If you happen to look at this thread again, do you think you could provide a citation for the Gorbachev quote you alluded to? I'd like to have it. I read a quote by Kennan in consortiumnews saying the same thing, but I'd love to have a Gorbachev quote.

Posted by: David at May 17, 2003 10:30 PM | PERMALINK

I had saved this site as reference sometime ago. Have not read it in quite awhile, so, for what it's worth relevant to the conversation...

http://www.odci.gov/csi/monograph/russia/appa.html

Posted by: john at May 18, 2003 09:49 AM | PERMALINK

"No doubt the Bushies are attempting the same kind of thing, because hey, it worked then."
You mean, Star Wars II is a way of spending Al Qaeda into the ground until it collapses? Or maybe they're looking for an arms race with China? My own feeling it that they're primarily, if not exclusively, looking for a way to funnel billions of dollars into GOP contributors' pockets (the arms people). I believe the word boondoggle was invented for precisely this eventuality.

Posted by: John Isbell at May 18, 2003 10:46 AM | PERMALINK

Perspective, people, perspective. The 'underestimated' Russian military, could still have swept right through Western Europe if the US didn't oppose the USSR. It isn't as if they were a bunch of girl scouts.

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