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May 16, 2003

MORE ON GAYS....Is gay rights a good topic for Democrats? Turn it around: is it a bad topic for Republicans? You bet.

Here are three articles on the subject. First, the conservative Washington Times reports that the Christian right is furious not just at the possibility of the Republican party reaching out to gays, but at its mere failure to defend Rick Santorum loudly enough:

"We urged party leaders not to put President Bush's re-election at risk in 2004 by shrinking from the cultural wars now," said Gary Bauer, a Reagan White House domestic policy adviser, who attended last week's meeting with Mr. Racicot.

Social conservatives at the meeting also criticized the "tepid response" by the RNC to attacks on Sen. Rick Santorum after the Pennsylvania Republican was interviewed about a Supreme Court case involving a Texas sodomy law. Mr. Racicot "insisted that they had been stout in their defense of [Mr. Santorum], yet they did not issue any statement defending Santorum," Mr. Weyrich said.

Second, here is the Economist, a neutral observer, on the same topic:

There are still three good reasons to think that the barking from the right may not be entirely toothless. To begin with, social conservatives are not as pragmatic as the deal-doing business conservatives are. They are absolutists, who are willing to go to the stake for certain issues.

Second, social conservatives are now buried deeper inside the Republican establishment than ever before....Anyone who doubts the clout of these Christian conservatives within the party should study the fate of last year's bankruptcy-reform legislation, which the business wing of the party wanted. Social conservatives destroyed the bill because it included a provision designed to crack down on anti-abortion protesters.

A third reason for Mr Bush to worry about social conservatives is that they do have an alternative to voting Republican: they can stay at home. Karl Rove points out that some 4m Christian conservatives who voted in 1994 failed to vote in 2000.

And finally, here is Andrew Sullivan:

There is no question which way the middle of this country is moving. None whatsoever. Santorum, Delay, Robertson, Bauer, Connor, and the rest, represent an increasingly isolated, bitter and angry constituency that is fast losing the argument. The question for the GOP is whether it wants to reach out to a growing and increasingly accepted community, or whether it wants to tie its fate to a group that is out of step with basic standards of American tolerance, equality and compassion.

This is a great wedge issue, folks, and it doesn't have to be about gay marriage. How about federal protection for being fired due to sexual orientation? That has overwhelming support among the electorate but would be almost impossible for Bush to support. How about Social Security survivor benefits for gay partners? That's supported by two-thirds of the electorate, which means virtually all independents and moderates. How about loudly defending Thomas McLaughlin and daring President Bush to do the same? (Oh, and here's the lastest on that.)

Karl Rove wants anything but this to become an issue, and that by itself should be reason enough for Democrats to press it hard. So far, Bush has been able to avoid saying anything about gays that makes him look like a bigot, so our goal should be to make him do just that by forcing him to take a direct stand on a simple, substantive issue. If we can, he either loses about 5-10% of the moderate electorate who are appalled by his opposition, or he loses 5-10% of the far right who are appalled by his support.

What more can you ask for?

Posted by Kevin Drum at May 16, 2003 11:52 AM | TrackBack


Comments

How many D's would be turned off by the issue, too? RoveCo could just as easily put the question to the D candidates and make them pick a position.

Posted by: ChrisL at May 16, 2003 12:04 PM | PERMALINK

Good question. Probably some, but I'll bet there's a whole lot more on the GOP side. It's a net win for Democrats.

Posted by: Kevin Drum at May 16, 2003 12:06 PM | PERMALINK

But here's how it's going to be framed-
Dem: I support equal protection under the law for gays- SS survivor benefits and protection from discrimination in the workplace.
Bush/Rove: So then you support gay marriage?
Option 1:
Dem- Yes, marriage or some equivalent (energize religious right and lose moderates who disagree)
Option 2:
Dem- No, I'm not willing to go that far (face attacks from the left and from the press about waffling)

Any issue can be played to make either side uncomfortable. I think option 1 is the right one, morally, but electorally the Dem loses the advantage you mention. I don't know about the electoral effect of option 2- would activists on the left take half a loaf, and how much power do they have anyway?

Posted by: SP at May 16, 2003 12:10 PM | PERMALINK

Some activists would, some wouldn't (or so has been the experience in VT with civil unions). All they can do is vote Green or GOP, or stay home, or not give money, I guess... There would probably be a mix of reactions, but I think it would be a net gain for the Dems.

Posted by: 90210 at May 16, 2003 12:14 PM | PERMALINK

1. Putting the question squarely will require the Dems to make the issue a priority, which makes it easy for Bush to look moderate by comparison. This was the trap Republicans sometimes fell in with Clinton: the minority party has to scream so loud to get a social issue on the agenda at all, people start questioning their emphasis.

2. If Bush is worried about social conservatives, he has multiple aces in the hole to get them to the polls. One, on the gay rights question, is court decisions: the Supreme Court is likely to topple Bowers v. Hardwick and (as Stanley Kurtz loves to argue) a Massachusetts court could impose gay marriage. Nothing gets the cultural Right moving like being handed irreversable defeats in the courts. Another is abortion, which is enormously more important to social conservatives (who really didn't exist as a voting bloc until January 1973) than any gay rights issue. A third is judicial confirmations, which shapes up as the big battle of the coming months.

Posted by: Crank at May 16, 2003 12:17 PM | PERMALINK

Honestly, outside of Manhattan, San Francisco, and a couple of other metro areas, I just can't imagine the give a damn meter pegs very high on this. Poll numbers on "support" are virtually meaningless. It might be that 2/3 "support" domestic partner benefits for homosexuals (a strange position, frankly, unless you also support it for heterosexual paramours), but it's quite another to leap to the conclusion that they are going to vote based on that issue.

Posted by: James Joyner at May 16, 2003 12:25 PM | PERMALINK

I could see Bush supporting federal protection for homosexuals just to appeal to moderates. He's made a few concessions to the middle before and I'm sure he'd do it again. I think a much, much better issue would be hate crimes laws that include homosexuals. Bush is firmly on record as being opposed to that. Remember during the 2000 debates when Bush took credit for Texas's hate crime law? It turns out that there was already a hate crimes law on the books from Ann Richard's tenure. When Bush became governor, the state senate passed an improved hate crimes law that included protections for homosexuals. He vetoed the bill, which the Senate then overturned. It became law without his signature.

Speaking of hate crimes laws and homosexuals, did you guys read the article about Canada's hate crimes legislation. Apparently under the current proposal, the Bible could be classified as "hate literature" due to its anti-gay passages.

Posted by: greg at May 16, 2003 12:26 PM | PERMALINK

I noted elsewhere that I firmly believe (perhaps just through naive optimism) that the latest hardball tactics by the GOP represent a mix of hubris and desperation by the hard-right members.

The more realistic of them realize they're current party is doomed, as the country slowly moves left. The other part, of course, has absolutely no doubts about the rightness of their cause.

Put that together, and you have a large chunk of the Republican party jamming divisive and unpopular bills though as hard as they can, as well as pulling out all the stops to ensure Republicans have every advantage in the next decade.

They're going to have to change radically in the next decade or two. Given the absolutism of much of the religious right, I think it's far more likely the GOP will simply move to adopt the values of the conservative Democrats (and conservative Democrats switching parties as well) while the radical right crystallizes into a fringe party.

Those "Franco-Republicans" are the future of the GOP. I'm willing to bet the more savvy of the GOP operatives know it, and are trying to get as much done as possible while they still can.

Posted by: Morat at May 16, 2003 12:33 PM | PERMALINK

This has been talked about a bunch on various blogs, and when I first started thinking about it, I thought that it wasn't a good issue. Now, I'm re-thinking it.

It seems to me if the issue was pressed, I don’t think Bush would be crazy enough to pull a Buchannon.
He would, instead, make one of his now famous middle-of-the-road statement-non-statements. You know, one of those ‘What people do is none of my business’ sort of things. The conservative right HATES this. Read the latest FRC editorial about the GOP’s Gay problem. It’s like Jack Nicholson in ‘A Few Good Men’. The conservative Right hates keeping quiet. They want Bush to denounce gays and have nothing to do with them. When he doesn’t, they get mad. Now, certainly they won’t go vote Democratic, but they might stay home.

As for the left, I certainly don’t think you’re going to find too many people talking about gay marriage. Civil Unions, maybe, but I don’t think this will turn off the moderates or independents. Yes, the gay issue bit Clinton early on, but I think the country has become much more okay with the topic then they were 10 years ago.

Posted by: Henry at May 16, 2003 12:34 PM | PERMALINK

"It might be that 2/3 "support" domestic partner benefits for homosexuals (a strange position, frankly, unless you also support it for heterosexual paramours)..."

It's only a strange position of gays were allowed the option of marriage to get those benefits. Since they aren't, this position is a compromise one that lets most people feel comfortable since it addresses probably the most egregious and popularly felt injustice about the current situation, without going all the way to allowing gay marriage.

Posted by: Doug Turnbull at May 16, 2003 12:37 PM | PERMALINK

Probably some, but I'll bet there's a whole lot more on the GOP side. It's a net win for Democrats.

Are you sure 'bout that?
It's not like the rank and file donks were exactly livid when Clinton signed DOMA. IIRC, other than the HRC & various other groups, there wasn't much rumbling from the party who'd 'win' this issue (as they voted en masse for DOMA, at that).

Posted by: RW at May 16, 2003 12:46 PM | PERMALINK

I think that sodomy laws are the best way to attack this. "I don't think Mary Cheney should be sent to jail; do you Mr. Bush?" Make people understand how extreme the Santorum issue really is.

Posted by: Ted at May 16, 2003 03:30 PM | PERMALINK

Speaking of hate crimes laws and homosexuals, did you guys read the article about Canada's hate crimes legislation. Apparently under the current proposal, the Bible could be classified as "hate literature" due to its anti-gay passages.

I seriously doubt that. But using the Bible to incite hatred of homosexuals might be actionable under the proposed law.

Posted by: Don P at May 16, 2003 04:30 PM | PERMALINK

Honestly, outside of Manhattan, San Francisco, and a couple of other metro areas, I just can't imagine the give a damn meter pegs very high on this.

It'd be a winner of an issue in Wisconsin, at least in Milwaukee, Madison and the other urban centers. It would cost the Dems almost nothing they don't already have here. Of course, Wisconsin has long had non-discrimination on this topic inscribed in the state constitution.

Frankly, it isn't just San Francisco, New York and a "couple" of urban areas.

OTOH: Being in a party with a bunch of stone cold racists doesn't seem to bother the urban and urbane GOP, either. So I'm not sure it moves too many votes unless you can actually get Bush or Rove to start talking like a cracker on equal treatment.

Posted by: Rick at May 16, 2003 08:09 PM | PERMALINK

raising issues like SS survivor benefits will be a loser for Dems, because the GOP would frame the issue in terms of a 'slippery slope' to gay marriage...

Posted by: esteban gonzalez at May 16, 2003 09:59 PM | PERMALINK

I really don't see this as a good issue for the Democrats, unfortunately. I wish they had some guts, because I think that they would win some votes just for looking strong...on anything.
Bush would say..."It is for the people of South Carolina to decide who can get married, or sodomize each other"...you know, the state's rights nonsense.
And I think it is a winner for the Repubs, part of their cultural wedge program - since Republicans have no natural constituency, except the rich minority. How else can you sell a poor white southerner on the Republican platform?
Santorum knew exactly what he was doing. The Democrats can be the party of terrorists, Saddam Hussein, gays and blacks. And everyone between California and NY knows what to do.

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