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I don't know if my guesses are right, especially the part about feeding a slot machine ten times a minute (Vegas junkies are invited to comment on this), but it shows that at least the order of magnitude is plausible. Of course, the article also says that he's lost as much as $500,000 in a single visit. The same arithmetic I used above indicates that this would require about 40 hours of gambling, and I'm not sure what this means. Does he play multiple machines at once? Do some casinos have slots even bigger than $500? Does he play for longer periods than the article says? More investigation is needed! Somebody get cracking out there! Posted by Kevin Drum at May 3, 2003 05:53 PM | TrackBackComments
Did William Bennett deny the charges of losing that much money? If he didn't then math isn't really necessary. If he did, then the math still isn't necessary. The point is, a supposidly "moral" leader, someone once responsible for our schools-and the war on drugs-has an addiction himself. I would never allow my clients to try to confuse and muddy the simple fact that their addiction destroyed their lives in some way. It's simple, his gambling was noticed by others. When confronted he
neither denied nor admitted to the behavior. Instead he became defensive
and attempted to justify that his behavior was ok because "no one got
hurt." (Gee, how much of that money was at one time "taxpayer money?"). <humor: "sarcasm" 100%>And besides----Math Sucks!</humor> Posted by: Guy Hall at May 3, 2003 06:48 PM | PERMALINKYour logic seems about right, but there is one thing that you have to keep in mind about the payoff on those machines, 98% is over some period of time. One person sitting down to play a machine is guaranteed nowhere near that level of payoff. If they were then the reason that people play slots, the opportunity to win money, would be reduced. With that in mind the statements about B2 losing as much as $500.000 in a single visit make more sense. Think of it as a run of bad luck, nothing more. Take for example a machine with a $10.000.000 jackpot. A machine with that large a payoff would need to take in a little more than $10.200.000 for it to pay off at 98%. So, if you can feed in only $1.000.000 in your time in the casino you would come nowhere near hitting a point where it would need to pay out, even if you were guaranteed that the 98% figure applied on a per-person basis rather than for a particular machine over a particular period of time. (I believe the period to be something on the order of a month, but I am not entirely sure about this. Perhaps someone connected to Nevada’s gambling commission would care to enlighten us?) I think that what we are seeing is that the 98% figure truly does play out over time. No matter how you try, so long as you are playing games purely of chance like slots, there is not way to beat the house. That being said, I sincerely hope that people restrain themselves from attacking B2 based upon his gambling. When we do that we lower ourselves to his level. The problem is not that he is a gambler; the problem is that he has criticized any number of people for their vices, and then when his is revealed he attempts to pretend that there are no parallels between them and him. Being a gambler should lose him no points; being a prig is what should get him into trouble. Adam Posted by: Adam at May 3, 2003 06:50 PM | PERMALINKActually, I need to take back the "has an addiction himself" statement I made earlier. I have not sat down to do an actual assessment with Mr. Bennett, so should just keep my opinion to myself. Oh, anyone remember the Michael Jordan gambling ruckus of a few years ago? Posted by: Guy Hall at May 3, 2003 07:03 PM | PERMALINKGuy: he didn't deny the gambling, but he did say that he had come out "pretty close to even," which is hard to believe. Adam: That makes sense. I guess it's entirely possible that in a single session he could lose a lot more than 2% because of the payoff pattern. Posted by: Kevin Drum at May 3, 2003 07:29 PM | PERMALINKWell, $8 million in the hole is "pretty close to even" in the grand scheme of things if you've wagered $360 million. "Pretty close" is a nice slippery relative term. Posted by: Stentor at May 3, 2003 09:26 PM | PERMALINKI doubt the payoff has to be for a fixed period of time, as long as it can be shown that the expected return is 95% (ie. mathematical expectation.) In other words, if you figure out hte math for it, with each pull of the handle you expect to get back 98% of what you put in. As long as that's true, chance can determine what you get on any specific pull. Posted by: jon m at May 4, 2003 12:19 AM | PERMALINKI just wonder how a guy who can spend that much on gambling, and lose
that much on gambling, can have any idea what it is like to be a normal
person, with normal income and normal problems and then lecture them on
virtues. Adam wrote: "A machine with that large a payoff would need to take in a little more than $10.200.000 for it to pay off at 98%. So, if you can feed in only $1.000.000 in your time in the casino you would come nowhere near hitting a point where it would need to pay out, even if you were guaranteed that the 98% figure applied on a per-person basis rather than for a particular machine over a particular period of time." -- I think Adam misunderstands the meaning of "a machine with a $10,000,000 jackpot". Slots are designed to yield many small wins -- something on the order of one "win" per five to ten pulls. These frequent but relatively tiny rewards induce a player to keep pumping in the quarters (or $500 "bills"), by encouraging a belief that he is either ahead of the game, or only slightly behind and that just a few more pulls will yield a break-even result (if not the big jackpot). During a three-day slots marathon, Bennett would likely score dozens of such addiction-reinforcing hits, but his total "winnings" would amount to only ~98% of his total bets. This expected outcome would obtain whether the jackpot (max single-pull payoff) of Bennett's machine is $10,000 or $10,000,000, whether he plays one machine or 100 simultaneously, or whether he feeds the slots a total of $1,000 or $1,000,000. State lotteries take their suckers with a similar strategy -- lots of tiny rewards and a negligible potential for jackpot nirvana, serving to disguise the reality of relentlesss loss. Posted by: dean at May 4, 2003 03:49 AM | PERMALINKA couple things you might be missing-- in my very limited experience, you can put in several hundred dollars at once, or swipe a card if you're in the "player's club" and not have to keep on putting in quarters. And you can risk more than one quarter-- typically 3-- on a single pull of the arm. 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